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URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Morristown TN
355 PM EST Sun Nov 29 2020


TNZ041-043-045-047-072-074-087-300500-
/O.NEW.KMRX.WS.A.0001.201130T1200Z-201201T1700Z/
Cocke Smoky Mountains-Southeast Greene-Unicoi-Southeast Carter-
Blount Smoky Mountains-Sevier Smoky Mountains-Southeast Monroe-
Including the cities of Hartford, Cedar Creek, Erwin, Unicoi,
Limestone Cove, Hampton, Cades Cove, Elkmont, Gatlinburg, Citico,
and Coker Creek
355 PM EST Sun Nov 29 2020

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING...
MRX pulls trigger on Winter Storm Watch.


* WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations of 4 to 8
  inches in the high elevations, with localized spots of up to 12
  inches. Lower elevations in the valley and downslope areas may
  only see 1 to 3 inches total.

* WHERE...Portions of east Tennessee.

* WHEN...From Monday morning through Tuesday morning.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult due to accumulating and
  blowing snow. The hazardous conditions could impact the Monday
  morning commute, but especially by Monday afternoon and evening
  and lasting through late Tuesday morning.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the latest forecasts for updates on this situation.

&&

$$

 

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What do you locals think I should expect being at around 2750 feet near Ober? MRX is pretty vague on the winter storm watch when it comes to "higher elevations"

 

I remember the Christmas storm of 2010 delivered some serious goods to us on Christmas night in Wears Valley. NW flow was insane with that storm and that night. We woke up to probably 6+ inches and it was incredible.

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1 minute ago, BhamParker said:

What do you locals think I should expect being at around 2750 feet near Ober? MRX is pretty vague on the winter storm watch when it comes to "higher elevations"

Honestly no clue. This should be as good a chance as any to see. I've only ever been there for an upslope the one time I mentioned yesterday in banter. This seems like a better upslope opportunity. Looks like you get WSW though. Good luck! 

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MRX is going with a chance of some snow mixed in tomorrow AM for my area.

"Rain and snow showers likely before 10am, then a chance of rain showers between 10am and 4pm, then a chance of rain and snow showers after 4pm. Cloudy, with a temperature falling to around 34 by 5pm. Northwest wind around 10 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. Little or no snow accumulation expected." 

 

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15 minutes ago, BhamParker said:

What do you locals think I should expect being at around 2750 feet near Ober? MRX is pretty vague on the winter storm watch when it comes to "higher elevations"

 

I remember the Christmas storm of 2010 delivered some serious goods to us on Christmas night in Wears Valley. NW flow was insane with that storm and that night. We woke up to probably 6+ inches and it was incredible.

Not a 'Burg expert, but wild guess would be 1-3".   Will depend on how much moisture is available for upslope.  

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What do you locals think I should expect being at around 2750 feet near Ober? MRX is pretty vague on the winter storm watch when it comes to "higher elevations"

 

I remember the Christmas storm of 2010 delivered some serious goods to us on Christmas night in Wears Valley. NW flow was insane with that storm and that night. We woke up to probably 6+ inches and it was incredible.

It’s really just depends on which way the mountain faces that you are on

I’ve seen upslope events where you can see several inches of snow, drive a mile away at the same elevation and see just a dusting. At 2800ft, if you are facing in a good direction you could easily see 3-6”. Ober Gatlinburg ski area is usually a good location for orographic snows.

 

 

.

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6 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

MRX is going with a chance of some snow mixed in tomorrow AM for my area.

"Rain and snow showers likely before 10am, then a chance of rain showers between 10am and 4pm, then a chance of rain and snow showers after 4pm. Cloudy, with a temperature falling to around 34 by 5pm. Northwest wind around 10 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. Little or no snow accumulation expected." 

 

That's a rather "cheesy " looking forecast. They can do better than that.

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I am surprised they issued the WWA, though they point out it's mainly above 2000 feet. 

I'm not 100 percent sure the point forecast isn't generated by the NAM forecast.  It shows the change over happening here at 8 am, and my point forecast says "Rain before 8am, then snow between 8 and 9am, then rain until 2PM, then snow after 2PM." 

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31 minutes ago, John1122 said:

I am surprised they issued the WWA, though they point out it's mainly above 2000 feet. 

I'm not 100 percent sure the point forecast isn't generated by the NAM forecast.  It shows the change over happening here at 8 am, and my point forecast says "Rain before 8am, then snow between 8 and 9am, then rain until 2PM, then snow after 2PM." 

It looks NAM generated. 

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They must be going hard with the NAM, because the EURO, GFS, and RGEM all show pretty significant snowfall just outside of the mountain areas. I’m sure they’ll change that tune after the event gets underway and if it performs a little better. I’ll be pulling hard for those at lower elevations.

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5 minutes ago, BhamParker said:

They must be going hard with the NAM, because the EURO, GFS, and RGEM all show pretty significant snowfall just outside of the mountain areas. I’m sure they’ll change that tune after the event gets underway and if it performs a little better. I’ll be pulling hard for those at lower elevations.

Yeah I’ve always thought the NaM had a wet bias but they did upgrade it last year.  It’s consistently been the driest with backside energy with all models significantly wetter.  Will be an interesting system to watch.

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