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JTA66

E PA/NJ/DE Fall 2020 OBS Thread

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On 11/5/2020 at 2:30 PM, The Iceman said:

@Ralph Wiggum you doing a winter forecast this year? Always enjoy reading your thoughts.

Didn't plan on it this year. My time has been devoted much more to family. If I have some free time I will put my thoughts together. I can tell you that I dont see any indices that make me feel all warm and fuzzy. I doubt we have a shutout, but honestly if you were to force me to commit to anything, I would say we are in trouble. More red flags than positive signals. We do have the solar minimum working for us and historically we have fared well, so there's that. I dont like the coupling of the trop PV and eventually strat PV over the pole. Even hints it tries to settle in over Alaska by early Dec. That generally doesn't bode well for forcing negative temp anomalies into the region as it locks into AK, Canada, and the Northern tier states and Maine. We'll see, maybe we can get a transition to something good, especially into January. 

Eta: I have seen blocking in Scandinavia being rather persistent this fall. That is an area that can push into the NAO region as we have seen a couple of times. As usual, the NAO/AO needs to be watched...could be a potential gamechanger.

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1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Few stray flakes here in Warminster (Ivyland) earlier.

Same here which was welcomed but nothing came close to swirling on the road...

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On 11/17/2020 at 11:33 PM, Birds~69 said:

6abc, Cecily, winter forecast Thurs @ 11pm. Glenn is usually shortly around the same time.

Both were wrong last year but she overall smoked Glenn last year...

https://www.phillymag.com/news/2019/11/22/cecily-tynan-hurricane-schwartz-winter-forecast/

She hinted on social media the other day don't expect anything big this year. 

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5 hours ago, RedSky said:

19F low. Ticks and stink bugs all dead a day of celebration.

 

 

Amen to that and the death to all annoying bugs/insects!

Oddly enough I've found several lady bugs in the house recently...somehow they don't bother me.

43F

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Getting the whiskey bottle out for Cecily's forecast:

Just a guess,

Snow:

Philly 10"or less

Immediate Burbs (myself) 10" - 15"

Further Burbs (upper Bucks/Mont Counties N/W) 15"+

Temps above average overall with our standard Jan blow torch....

Let's see...

 

 

 

 

 

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