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Chicago Storm

Late August Heat Wave

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Dews refused to mix out in this area today, but we still made the mid 90s.  Hope for better mixing tomorrow to attain upper 90s.
The slightly higher dews may have allowed this convection popping up nearly overhead to occur.  Very nice updraft literally straight up overhead, with a nice base just to the south.  

Probably a combination of the higher DP’s and the disturbance quickly sliding ESE across S WI.


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The 97 at ORD, which represents the hottest temperature so far this year, is the first time since 2008 that the standalone hottest temp of the year occurred in August or later.  The hottest temp of 2008 actually occurred in September.

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I dug into the 11 occurrences of 100+ degree highs in Chicago in August. 

10 out of 11 occurred in the first 12 days of the month, with the one exception being August 24 (1947).  All of them happened during stretches of drier than average conditions, or full blown drought in some cases.  Wednesday fits the profile in that regard.  Progged temps aloft are borderline territory for the century mark even on warmest guidance, but the dry conditions and seeing ORD overachieve with 97 today doesn't hurt. 

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26 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

I dug into the 11 occurrences of 100+ degree highs in Chicago in August. 

10 out of 11 occurred in the first 12 days of the month, with the one exception being August 24 (1947).  All of them happened during stretches of drier than average conditions, or full blown drought in some cases.  Wednesday fits the profile in that regard.  Progged temps aloft are borderline territory for the century mark even on warmest guidance, but the dry conditions and seeing ORD overachieve with 97 today doesn't hurt. 

 Looks like Chicago hit 100 + 4 times in September. 2 of the 4 during the infamous 1953 heat wave

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1 hour ago, Hoosier said:

The 97 at ORD, which represents the hottest temperature so far this year, is the first time since 2008 that the standalone hottest temp of the year occurred in August or later.  The hottest temp of 2008 actually occurred in September.

That seems odd that its been 12 years since the hottest temp occurred in August or later. Its not like August is much cooler than July so one would think it would be pretty common to have the hottest temp occur in August.

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8 minutes ago, Snownado said:

That seems odd that its been 12 years since the hottest temp occurred in August or later. Its not like August is much cooler than July so one would think it would be pretty common to have the hottest temp occur in August.

It's particularly odd this year since June and July were very warm months for Chicago.  But it goes to show that it's been more about persistent warmth than bigtime torches.  

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11 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

 Looks like Chicago hit 100 + 4 times in September. 2 of the 4 during the infamous 1953 heat wave

Yep.  That is the really rarified air.

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p&c lowered to 80 for today before the heat returns. today was always the most likely fail day tho so no major surprise and should be a nice reprieve 

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It’s still early obviously... But given that activity last night/this morning made it well south into NE IL and the final cluster of activity around MKE is kicking out another OFB...90+ is unlikely across the metro. Might struggle to even get mid-upper 80’s.


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No way in hell that Wed's high will be below 97, imo.  If I had to give a probability breakdown, I'd go something like this
97:  15%
98:  30%
99:  30%
100:  20%
101:  5%

At the point I don’t see how tomorrow ends up hotter that yesterday.


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2 hours ago, Chicago Storm said:


At the point I don’t see how tomorrow ends up hotter that yesterday.


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Early signs on the HRRR aren't good, and thermal profiles trended a little cooler on the Euro.  That is unfortunate, because ORD essentially escaped the storms overnight with only 0.03" so newly wet ground feedback would be a non-issue.

On another note, it was still 82 at 4 am before the boundary came through, so it sort of gives you an idea of what the starting point might be on Thursday... possibly upper 70s.

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I would still go upper 90s at ORD tomorrow.  Whether it exceeds yesterday has become more of a question mark.  

Not that I am expecting it to happen, but I would want to see 89-90 at ORD at 10 am to have a shot at 100. 

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4 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

87 at ORD and winds have flipped southerly.  May we rally to the best of our ability.

It's over... OFB surging SW across NE IL, with clouds ahead/along/behind it.

Guessing it might have hit 88, with cloud deck moving in now.

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7 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

It's over... OFB surging SW across NE IL, with clouds ahead/along/behind it.

Guessing it might have hit 88, with cloud deck moving in now.

I probably should have checked the vis sat.  Wind wise, I think it will still be an hour or more until it turns onshore.

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7 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

I probably should have checked the vis sat.  Wind wise, I think it will still be an hour or more until it turns onshore.

Probably would have tagged 90/91 just in time.

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91 ORD. What a rally.

Clouds cleared just in time, as the boundary slowed as it crossed the airport. In this case, also a big help that the ASOS is at the furthest SW point of the airport.

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19 hours ago, Hoosier said:

It's particularly odd this year since June and July were very warm months for Chicago.  But it goes to show that it's been more about persistent warmth than bigtime torches.  

#2020

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10 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

91 ORD. What a rally.

Clouds cleared just in time, as the boundary slowed as it crossed the airport. In this case, also a big help that the ASOS is at the furthest SW point of the airport.

Good thing they relocated the ASOS to the southwest part of the airport awhile back.  Would have been awful to interrupt the 90 degree stretch.  :sun:

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Happy for u

You got the good derecho hit, I get 30+ 90°+ days.

We good.


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