snowfan Posted August 31 NAM twins now without much precip 95 and east for the next 2 days. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
MN Transplant Posted August 31 5 hours ago, snowfan said: NAM twins now without much precip 95 and east for the next 2 days. 06z HRRR is effectively sprinkles. Meanwhile the 00z Euro still douses us. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
CAPE Posted August 31 It seems that high and associated dry air is going to do a number on attempts for significant moisture to advance too far north and east. Euro is on its own att, although some of the CAMs have at least a little rain. GFS is now mostly dry north and east of DC. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
losetoa6 Posted August 31 1 hour ago, CAPE said: It seems that high and associated dry air is going to do a number on attempts for significant moisture to advance too far north and east. Euro is on its own att, although some of the CAMs have at least a little rain. GFS is now mostly dry north and east of DC. 24hrs ago looked like a lock for 1-2" needed rain up here but now ( .1-.2") looks more likely lol through tomorrow. Euro has been deadly accurate up here lately with skimpy qpf . This go around likely wayy too wet . I had my doubts with that High wedge and once guidance started trimming back yesterday that was it . I'll take sprinkles and like it. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
osfan24 Posted August 31 Weird. Rain now just hits a wall at the Potomac. Euro still has rain, but it is drying up a bit as it approaches us so it's not like it isn't picking up on the drying effect the other models seem to show. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
CAPE Posted August 31 This looks like a Blue Ridge special, with up slope enhancement due to the position of that high and the shortwave focusing the lift there. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
CAPE Posted August 31 ^Glad I was out there the past 2 days. FW there now. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
losetoa6 Posted August 31 6z Euro continues to trim back Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
SilentTalkie Posted August 31 GFS was extremely pessimistic in Western Albemarle next to the BR with under 0.5 inches past two runs. Already up to 0.9 inches this morning. 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
CAPE Posted August 31 3 hours ago, losetoa6 said: 6z Euro continues to trim back 12z GFS gives your yard a respectable amount of rain. Pretty big shift. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Eskimo Joe Posted August 31 Just prepped and seeded a large section of my back yard. Really hope the next few days are cloudy and wet. 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
WVclimo Posted August 31 Steady light rain here at 65 degrees. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Jrlg1181 Posted August 31 1.4 here western side of Afton.... 9.1 for the month.. 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
dailylurker Posted August 31 1 hour ago, Eskimo Joe said: Just prepped and seeded a large section of my back yard. Really hope the next few days are cloudy and wet. Just seeded my fall salads greens. Cloudy, cooler and rainy would be ok with me. Radar looking much healthier the past hour for the DC area. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
nj2va Posted August 31 Rain so far has been focused on the southern part of the county but light rain just started. HRRR advertising about 0.5" after all is said and done. NAM was showing 2"+ yesterday. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
poolz1 Posted August 31 Certainly a wait and see situation but a heavy rain/ flooding threat certainly looms in the LR....even if there is no organized TC that gets involved. That is one deep moisture feed and over a long duration. D8-15 on the 12z GFS 3 1 1 2 2 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
coolio Posted August 31 ^^^Very cool animation. Also, has anyone noticed that we've gotten precip from all angles this past summer? We've had SE rain. Left right rain, Upper midwest rain, stationary blob rain, I'm pretty sure we got some rain that came down from New England (hadn't seen that one ever, i think). 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
WxUSAF Posted August 31 Para-GEFS and euro both much more progressive with that front that the GFS is stalling next week. 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
WVclimo Posted August 31 So far the high temp has been 70 at Martinsburg. If that stands, it breaks the low max record for the date of 71 set in 2003. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
BlizzardNole Posted August 31 Only about 0.1 so far, but hoping those better returns just west can get here and stay a while. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Baltimorewx Posted August 31 radar really doesnt look awful...I guess if it were winter lol. Those greens just arent producing much in the way of steady rain...must be kinda dry out Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Baltimorewx Posted August 31 56 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Para-GEFS and euro both much more progressive with that front that the GFS is stalling next week. Good...Im rooting against heavy rains...the top of my jeep is damaged (my fault) but im afraid if it rains hard itll leak inside some Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
WxUSAF Posted August 31 1 hour ago, Baltimorewx said: radar really doesnt look awful...I guess if it were winter lol. Those greens just arent producing much in the way of steady rain...must be kinda dry out It’s been deceptive. Mostly glorified sprinkles despite some greens and yellows on radar. 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
nj2va Posted August 31 0.09" so far here - underperformer. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Rhino16 Posted August 31 Tornado Warning for Lunenburg and Mecklenburg VA Edit: Apparently this started over half an hour ago, and I didn’t notice. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
MN Transplant Posted August 31 0.39” and still steady. Definitely a blend of the models. Didn’t dry up like the mesos thought, but the Euro was way too aggressive. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
WxUSAF Posted August 31 35 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: It’s been deceptive. Mostly glorified sprinkles despite some greens and yellows on radar. Of course as soon as I posted this it started raining for real. 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
CAPE Posted August 31 A few hundredths here. Driveway is almost completely damp. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
WVclimo Posted August 31 0.80” and still raining. Northern edge has been kind today. Hoping for a repeat in January. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
JakkelWx Posted August 31 Rates aren't heavy enough for stickage. 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
