Allsnow Posted June 30, 2020 Share Posted June 30, 2020 Just now, winterwx21 said: It's mind-boggling how bad our luck is here. I came out of Shoprite of Piscataway and it was coming down in BUCKETS. Had to load the car in pouring rain. So I was hoping my vegetable garden got a good watering, but I get home (only a little over 5 minutes away from Shoprite) and see that the ground is only slightly wet. Just a little shower here, not nearly enough to water anything. Very irritating. I looked at radar and saw that one cell missed me a couple miles to the west and another missed me a couple miles to the east. Disgusting luck. Outside I go now to water the garden. Really irritating considering it was a deluge just a few miles away at Shoprite where I had to get soaked loading the car. I fee for ya! I completely understand the frustration of watering on a daily bases. We didn’t get lots of rain here but it was enough to keep the sprinkler off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted July 1, 2020 Share Posted July 1, 2020 The first month of summer was warmer than normal. The greatest warm anomalies were located across Upstate New York and northern New England. New York City finished with a mean temperature of 73.7°, which was 2.2° above normal. July will likely be 2°-4° above normal in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions. A predominantly warmer than normal pattern will likely persist through at least July and August, paving the way for a warmer than normal summer throughout the region. Occasional short-lived cool shots remain possible Initially, extreme heat is unlikely, but that could change during July, especially if the emerging drought continues to deepen. One or more heatwaves are likely in July across the region. The CFSv2, which has now moved into its skillful range for its monthly forecasts, and the EPS weeklies favor a warmer than normal July across the region. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.8°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.1°C for the week centered around June 24. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.48°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.37°C. Neutral-cool conditions will likely prevail through mid-summer. The probability of the development of a La Niña event during late summer or early autumn has increased in recent weeks. The SOI was +7.52. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.491. On June 29, the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.303 (RMM). The June 28-adjusted amplitude was 1.302. Last year, the MJO went through a very strong passage through Phase 1 during the closing days of May. About four weeks later, a warmer than normal pattern locked in and predominated through early autumn. This year, the MJO was in Phase 1 for 3 consecutive days with an amplitude of 1.500 or above during the June 1-3 period. Since 1981, there were four such cases that saw the MJO meet or exceed those thresholds during the June 1-10 period: 2002, 2006, 2007, and 2015. While the four cases were evenly split between cooler and warmer than normal during the second half of June, 3 of those 4 cases saw a warmer to much warmer than normal July. This could be an early indication that a summer that will start with near normal temperatures overall (June) could turn warmer than normal afterward. Last year, the SOI fell to -42.04 on June 22 when the MJO was in Phase 6. This year, the SOI plunged below -46.68 on June 5, its lowest level in more than three years. The dramatic plunge in the SOI could be the proverbial spark that kicks off a sequence of events leading to the development of a sustained warmer than normal period. Taking into consideration the MJO, that transition could begin some time during the closing 10 days of June. Further, the cases that saw both the MJO and SOI thresholds satisfied generally saw 10-20 days where the temperature reached or exceeded 90° in New York City. Just as had been the case last year, July and August could feature warm anomalies in the East. July-August 2019 saw 13 days on which the temperature reached or exceeded 90° in New York City. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted July 1, 2020 Share Posted July 1, 2020 6/30 PHL: 86 ACY: 84 New Brnswk: 84 TTN: 83 EWR: 82 (1.44) JFK: 81 LGA: 81 NYC: 80 SIP: 79 BLM: 79 TEB: 79 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JustinRP37 Posted July 1, 2020 Share Posted July 1, 2020 42 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: The first month of summer was warmer than normal. The greatest warm anomalies were located across Upstate New York and northern New England. New York City finished with a mean temperature of 73.7°, which was 2.2° below normal. July will likely be 2°-4° above normal in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions Do you mean 2.2° above normal for NYC? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted July 1, 2020 Share Posted July 1, 2020 June Departures LGA: +3.7 NYC: +2.3 ISP: +2.3 BLM: +2.2 EWR: +2.0 TTN": +1.4 JFK: +1.0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted July 1, 2020 Share Posted July 1, 2020 18 minutes ago, JustinRP37 said: Do you mean 2.2° above normal for NYC? Above. Typo fixed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted July 1, 2020 Share Posted July 1, 2020 22 hours ago, donsutherland1 said: Thanks for the kind words. Yes. I took both photos. Awesome! I'd like to share this--do you mind? Will give credit of course! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted July 1, 2020 Share Posted July 1, 2020 11 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Awesome! I'd like to share this--do you mind? Will give credit of course! Feel free to do so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted July 1, 2020 Author Share Posted July 1, 2020 High for the day was 82 here. Picked up 0.10" of rain for the day. Current temp 68 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted July 1, 2020 Share Posted July 1, 2020 Mean temp here of 73.0° for month is a +2.1° departure and 4th warmest in 43 years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted July 2, 2020 Share Posted July 2, 2020 if you used the last 30 year average from 1991-2020 June averaged 71.9...so going on the new 30 year average June 2020 was +1.8 from hard averages... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted July 2, 2020 Share Posted July 2, 2020 On 6/30/2020 at 6:13 PM, bluewave said: Yes. It was the first 71 degree or warmer June at JFK not to reach 90 degrees. Today we had a northerly wind and it still didn't hit 90 at JFK- we're only at 82- what's going on? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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