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mappy

COVID-19 Talk

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1 hour ago, mappy said:

Pork chops 

First heard them described as that 51 years ago. The Principal at the Arkansas High School I was student teaching at took one look at me and said, “ Boy, tomorrow morning I only want to see the bone on those pork chops”. As I Remember, the town was in a dry county (Prohibition still in effect)  Very friendly and kind hearted folk though. As always ....

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1 hour ago, Vice-Regent said:

The meat plants are shuttering. What will you do now that Mappy has no more meat to cook?

Wait, how....? How ya managed to sour that up I have no idea...but I'll give ya points for creativity, lol

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If people are going to use total deaths of flu for comparison then they have to use the total deaths of this virus over the entire year. Taking bets that number is over 100k by the end of 2020

We can only hope!

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34 minutes ago, DCTeacherman said:


Safe to say the jury is still out on that result from Santa Clara county. 

Do you know why Trevor said the he would be "skeptical" of the results?

 

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6 minutes ago, 40westwx said:

Do you know why Trevor said the he would be "skeptical" of the results?

 

Yeah he goes on to explain in that thread.  Stuff is a little above my pay grade but i think the assumptions about how good the test is is one of the reasons.  One of the reasons mentioned in the other thread is the study relied on volunteers, it wasn’t random, so it may be biased to those who were sick and wanted confirmation. 

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10 hours ago, leesburg 04 said:

If people are going to use total deaths of flu for comparison then they have to use the total deaths of this virus over the entire year. Taking bets that number is over 100k by the end of 2020

 

8 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Yeah raw fatality number comparisons are already looking weaker...if we are less than two months into this and already have over 37k...and someone said the average flu season brings 40-60k? This might already be worse in that statistical category, smh I mean...has the flu ever killed that many in under two months?

 

Daily reminder that the flu death counts are modeled.  The coded counts are far less.  Now, there is a ton of attention on COVID-19, so I don't think there is an extreme underreporting (other than what is already known) but the epidemiologists will certainly model COVID-19 after the fact and likely increase the death counts.

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5 minutes ago, MN Transplant said:

 

 

Daily reminder that the flu death counts are modeled.  The coded counts are far less.  Now, there is a ton of attention on COVID-19, so I don't think there is an extreme underreporting (other than what is already known) but the epidemiologists will certainly model COVID-19 after the fact and likely increase the death counts.

It's why they call it the "flu burden" because the flu deaths are modeled in such a way that deaths indirectly related to the flu are incluced there too. 

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10 minutes ago, nw baltimore wx said:

If you have ten minutes, this is worth reading. Pretty sad.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-52311877

One thing that's been really prevalent is how rapidly COVID19 spreads in a closed environment compared to the flue et al.  Nursing homes, military ships, meat packing plants.  Once it's inside your place of work it just goes through the population like wildfire.

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34 minutes ago, MN Transplant said:

 

 

Daily reminder that the flu death counts are modeled.  The coded counts are far less.  Now, there is a ton of attention on COVID-19, so I don't think there is an extreme underreporting (other than what is already known) but the epidemiologists will certainly model COVID-19 after the fact and likely increase the death counts.

 

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7 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

One thing that's been really prevalent is how rapidly COVID19 spreads in a closed environment compared to the flue et al.  Nursing homes, military ships, meat packing plants.  Once it's inside your place of work it just goes through the population like wildfire.

Expect to see more of this in places that 'rush' to get back to normal. The availability of fast testing is still somehow elusive, and it's the SoS at the federal level. Pence says the testing capacity is there to reopen. Okay.

 

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The two graphics are from 2015-2016 (weeks 1-3) and 2017-2018 (weeks 1-3).  As I said previously, deaths don't lie.  The numbers indicate:

  • Roughy a 20-25% increase in overall deaths during years with a severe flu outbreak.  67, 495 deaths Week two in  2017-2018 vs 55,525 week two 2015 - 2016.
  • This is a 12,000 death increase
  • This a huge anomaly that cannot be ignored.
  • In 2018, only 5000 of the approximate 12,000 increase deaths (per week) were actually attributed to the flu but an additional 5,000 - 7,000 people per week were dying (this is US data).  

Why does this mean? 

I think the answer may be very simple.  The data below is based on death certificates from the states.  It seems that during a severe flu outbreak, many deaths are attributed to other factors (like natural causes or other end of life co-morbidities).  But in reality, the straw that broke the camels back (as we are seeing with the Corona Virus today) is the flu and resulting pneumonia.  This makes sense because viruses are opportunistic and will invade susceptible hosts at end of life.   

2015 - 2016

image.thumb.png.16db696cc3e822f82b168959ebb4fc2c.png

2017 - 2018

image.thumb.png.989d614c620310c005a9068f45ed3926.png

What does this tell us about the numbers we are seeing today?  Well it depends on how you look at it.  We have social distancing which prevents us from seeing the true toll Corona Virus would take if preventative measure were not taken.  But I think if you look just a little bit deeper.. right under the surface, what you find is that if you look for a Virus, you will find it.  In 2017 - 2018, if the flu that year was a media sensation (like it is this year), if every singe person who died would be tested for the flu.  Based on the 12,000 increase in death, they would probably find (at minimum) an additional 4000 - 6000 people that could be attributed to the flu.  

Now, if compared to today..  you may say this is nothing.. 7,000 people died in New York in one Calendar month. Not so fast.. 

My follow up post will show you something that is even more eye opening.. in 2017-2018, the vast majority of the deaths were in two hotspots: Florida and California

Welcome to a new day of the American weather corona virus statistical rabbit hole :)

I am going fishing with my son.. I will post the follow up when I come back..  and I am sure that many of you will not read it because it is from me!

 

 

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3 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

If we had gone about the usual business, hospitals across the country would have been completely overwhelmed. I don’t disagree that the virus has to run its course, but we don’t need to open up a smorgasbord.
 

(Goal for the day: make a Jaws reference in as many posts as I can)

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Why is that Ben Israel character getting some much play? He's not an epidemiologist. There's no way that social distancing doesn't matter. It literally flies in the face of like a 100 years of germ theory. 

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13 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said:

Why is that Ben Israel character getting some much play? He's not an epidemiologist. There's no way that social distancing doesn't matter. It literally flies in the face of like a 100 years of germ theory. 

Everyone who wants to get out is frantically clutching at anybody with a title or any statistic that gets posted that tells them this is all for nothing.

 

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12 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said:

Why is that Ben Israel character getting some much play? He's not an epidemiologist. There's no way that social distancing doesn't matter. It literally flies in the face of like a 100 years of germ theory. 

Mathematician from Tel Aviv. Good question for Fauci.

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21 minutes ago, snowfan said:

+736 cases, +38 deaths in md

No slowdown, today was 21% positive which is slightly down, need to see that happen day after day. 

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Re: stimulus.....if you owed, you dont get your money til they send checks. They're not using the provided routing and acct #s to debit your stimulus for those that paid. Only if you got a refund. Not sure if everyone was aware.

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30 minutes ago, nw baltimore wx said:

If we had gone about the usual business, hospitals across the country would have been completely overwhelmed. I don’t disagree that the virus has to run its course, but we don’t need to open up a smorgasbord.
 

(Goal for the day: make a Jaws reference in as many posts as I can)

There is a theory that NYC closed too late and what we are seeing there is an unfettered burn-through basically. Hospitals there have not been overwhelmed to the point people can’t get care. 

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28 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said:

Why is that Ben Israel character getting some much play? He's not an epidemiologist. There's no way that social distancing doesn't matter. It literally flies in the face of like a 100 years of germ theory. 

Lockdowns implemented too late may not be all that helpful if the virus has already infected a critical mass of people. 

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Just now, PhineasC said:

Lockdowns implemented too late may not be all that helpful if the virus has already infected a critical mass of people. 

That is true. 

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4 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

Lockdowns implemented too late may not be all that helpful if the virus has already infected a critical mass of people. 

Yeah, but that isn’t true anywhere in the US, not even close. 

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2 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

There is a theory that NYC closed too late and what we are seeing there is an unfettered burn-through basically. Hospitals there have not been overwhelmed to the point people can’t get care. 

I’d argue that they didn’t close too late. If we want to find out, open her up and let’s see if that little Alex Kitner kid gets spilled out all over the pier.

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One thing I’m glad he pointed out is that Lombardy is a total outlier. There are numerous stories from years past of the flu absolutely ravaging them in a very short amount of time and crushing their hospital system. No other country is having the same issues. 

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1 minute ago, DCTeacherman said:

Yeah, but that isn’t true anywhere in the US, not even close. 

It could be in NYC, we won’t know until we have serological data. Millions could have the disease already. I know most of you here seem to think that theory is bunk, but plenty of credentialed scientists believe it. 

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