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MAG5035

Central PA - Spring 2020

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If it snows this year in May, then I hope it's in the mid 90's for a few days this coming November...

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1 minute ago, Voyager said:

If it snows this year in May, then I hope it's in the mid 90's for a few days this coming November...

LOL, come on now.  We NEVER want it in the mid 90's.  Snow in May is equal to 80 on Turkey Day.

 

 

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1 minute ago, Voyager said:

If it snows this year in May, then I hope it's in the mid 90's for a few days this coming November...

 

1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said:

LOL, come on now.  We NEVER want it in the mid 90's.  Snow in May is equal to 80 on Turkey Day.

 

 

Depends on location. The odds of you and me seeing 80 on Turkey Day have to be way better than seeing snow on May 9th. 

I don't think I'll be anywhere close to seeing snow this weekend but if it does it's going in the history books. 

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1 minute ago, Itstrainingtime said:

 

Depends on location. The odds of you and me seeing 80 on Turkey Day have to be way better than seeing snow on May 9th. 

I don't think I'll be anywhere close to seeing snow this weekend but if it does it's going in the history books. 

Well accumulating snow maybe but snow flurries...I assumed that happens once every 10-20 years in the LSV.  I did not check end of November averages though just picked a number that would spoil the day....anything above 70 on Turkey day is a complete fail. 

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1 minute ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Lancaster has never had a recorded snowfall in May. 

I could have sworn people on here were saying it just happened in the 90's (flakes at least)  Then there was once in the 70's. 

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Well, I have never seen snow in May and I've never seen 90 in November, so if we get one, then I want the other as well.

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47 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

@Bubbler86 It might not have ever hit 80 on Thanksgiving either, but I do remember reaching 70 here on New Year's day. To me snow seems more far fetched on 5/9 than 80 in late November - at least down here we're already over 2 full weeks past the latest recorded snowfall ever.

It almost got to 80 a few Feburary's ago.  I did not know snowflakes in May were more than 10-20 year rare and I thought Mid 90's in November was once a century so he overstepped his bounds.  LOL.  

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11 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

It almost got to 80 a few Feburary's ago.  I did not know snowflakes in May were more than 10-20 year rare and I thought Mid 90's in November was once a century so he overstepped his bounds.  LOL.  

I've never seen snow of any kind in May in my 54 years. I don't recall even being close...this is probably the closest opportunity, one which I still believe is a long shot. 

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9 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

I've never seen snow of any kind in May in my 54 years. I don't recall even being close...this is probably the closest opportunity, one which I still believe is a long shot

Totally agree with highlighted comment.  Mag's post showing T's amounts at some point in the last several decades and thought someone else's pointed out another year it happened but maybe not at LNS.  MDT has apparently recorded May snow 3 times but never over a trace.  I had asked about this in the last day or two so decided to go find it.   Also of interest from this page the lowest temp ever recorded at MDT, in May, is 31 so there is a bit of a chance that is challenged! 

Add on-Williamsport has trace May amounts several times and actually recorded 2/10" in 1948.   Their all time May Low is 28 several times. 

image.png.2daeb0955423c64b3f74db1e9d279c43.png

 

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24 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

It almost got to 80 a few Feburary's ago.  I did not know snowflakes in May were more than 10-20 year rare and I thought Mid 90's in November was once a century so he overstepped his bounds.  LOL.  

And believe it or not, that February when it hit 80 here, I was out in Coachella (Palm Springs) CA freezing because the trough was out west.

That winter I was trucking coast to coast, and whenever I was home, the trough was in the east and the ridge out west. A week later I'd be out in Southern California and the trough would be out there and the ridge would be here.

No matter where I was it was cold. I couldn't win for nothing...lol

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4 hours ago, Bubbler86 said:

I would be pissed if my closest PA station, MDT,  got enough  snow to get over the total for making this the least snowiest winter ever.  We are in May now and I want to keep that distinction and not have it blown on a May 3-5"" slopfest miracle.

I once thought as you do. Those last two winters I've tallied snow here in my signature at 54.6" and 52.2" are average winters at my location at the foot of the Laurels. The 16.2" is pretty much 30% of normal and the wall to wall futility was something i've never seen. I was completely over this winter by the beginning of March from a hitting the slopes standpoint as there was never a point this winter the local resorts had a period of even half decent conditions. But you know what? I'm all in on this possible debacle Friday night. It's not likely anything else going on right now is "normal" anyways lol. Plus a paste bomb may actually help insulate the vegetation some with low temps Sat morning in hard freeze territory (mid 20s) Sat morning back this way. 

1 hour ago, Itstrainingtime said:

In Lancaster' record books, 1982 saw 2.5" accumulate on April 20th. Going back to 1926 that stands as the latest official snowfall in Lancaster. 

Having a trace and having measurable are two different things. If the flakes are flyin in the air, that's a T for the day. Grapuel also counts as frozen precip too so a non or little accumulating grapuel shower would go down as a T as well... and that's definitely on the table Saturday in the LSV.  Lancaster has probably never had a recorded measurable event in May but that 1977 event for instance may have given them at T. Either way, any frozen that deep into the LSV in May is extremely rare.

I dunno if State College has anything like this but NWS Pittsburgh has a whole webpage of miscellaneous snowfall data for PIT going back to 1884. Their latest recorded snow was May 31, 1893 (T) and latest accumulation of snow was 0.5" on May 25, 1925. 

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12 minutes ago, MAG5035 said:

But you know what? I'm all in on this possible debacle Friday night. It's not likely anything else going on right now is "normal" anyways lol. Plus a paste bomb may actually help insulate the vegetation some with low temps Sat morning in hard freeze territory (mid 20s) Sat morning back this way. 

 

I dunno if State College has anything like this but NWS Pittsburgh has a whole webpage of miscellaneous snowfall data for PIT going back to 1884. Their latest recorded snow was May 31, 1893 (T) and latest accumulation of snow was 0.5" on May 25, 1925. 

I am fine as long as whatever snow falls does not make our "season" anything but the least snowiest ever recorded.  Here is the link for Williamsport and Harrisbirg showing what I would consider to be their latest snow falls.  Altoona, Johnstown did not record snow.  Get this...Bradford hit freezing on August 5th, 1972! 

https://www.weather.gov/ctp/climateRecordsWilliamsport

 

 

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3 hours ago, paweather said:

I am feeling I'll be in the bullseye at 18z. Happy Hour run. 

18Z Nam and GFS both focus on the southern half of PA.  Main differences are the Nam staying snow in more places.  18Z Icon looks a lot likes its 12Z run. 

 

 

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23 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

18Z Nam and GFS both focus on the southern half of PA.  Main differences are the Nam staying snow in more places.  18Z Icon looks a lot likes its 12Z run. 

 

 

:) I know can’t wait to potentially see more history made with Snow in May. Thanks Bubbler

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I love looking through these records.  Some other interesting stats:

 

* After November 2nd it has never hit 80 at MDT until March the following year.  I would have thought there would have been more 80's later in the month after recent February runs at 80.

*  In fact the February average of record highs are quite comparable to November at MDT.  Very similar maxes over the different days of the month.  I guess that makes sense.  Dec and Jan are  the two colder months when it comes to averages of record highs. 

*  But when it comes to record lows February is much colder than November records.

*  In  1945 it hit 49 on July 2nd at MDT

*  In 1941 it hit 49 on August 5th at MDT

 

*****  The records show it snowed at MDT on August 15th?  Maybe some graupel? 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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6 hours ago, Bubbler86 said:

If we are I am going to have a beef with @Blizzard of 93 and his "All snow counts for the season" thought process.  June 2020 snows do not count toward 19/20 winter snowfall totals!  LOL. 

Lol...here we go again...!

Once again, this is not my “thought process”. The National Weather Service counts any & all snow that falls from October to May as the “Seasonal” total for that particular year, for example October of 2019 to May 2020. 

So yes, if the miracle May snow takes place on Friday & Saturday, it will indeed count for the 19-20 “season”.

I think that it would be awesome if we got bailed out of the worst snow season on record at MDT by some historic once every hundred year May snow!

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2 hours ago, Itstrainingtime said:

I've never seen snow of any kind in May in my 54 years. I don't recall even being close...this is probably the closest opportunity, one which I still believe is a long shot. 

Yes, me neither in my 43 years have I seen May snow anywhere that I have lived in the LSV. I have been following the Weather rather closely for nearly 30 of my years.      I don’t remember May snow ever being a forecast possibility in all of that time.

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1 hour ago, Bubbler86 said:

I love looking through these records.  Some other interesting stats:

 

* After November 2nd it has never hit 80 at MDT until March the following year.  I would have thought there would have been more 80's later in the month after recent February runs at 80.

*  In fact the February average of record highs are quite comparable to November at MDT.  Very similar maxes over the different days of the month.  I guess that makes sense.  Dec and Jan are  the two colder months when it comes to averages of record highs. 

*  But when it comes to record lows February is much colder than November records.

*  In  1945 it hit 49 on July 2nd at MDT

*  In 1941 it hit 49 on August 5th at MDT

 

*****  The records show it snowed at MDT on August 15th?  Maybe some graupel? 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Very interesting, thanks for looking up all of the historical info today!

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1 hour ago, Bubbler86 said:

18Z Nam and GFS both focus on the southern half of PA.  Main differences are the Nam staying snow in more places.  18Z Icon looks a lot likes its 12Z run. 

 

 

This chance at history deserves all of the snow maps that are available over the next few days!

Here is the 18z NAM in all of its glory!

 

BFC975E1-3963-4326-A6B6-A6A711612137.png

FBF98A77-8DA7-4800-A710-5EF8F3817B80.png

494EEBF6-856C-44F8-8EB7-75C575CD34A3.png

47DC2EEE-D2A1-4353-90D5-06B6B3B23951.png

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The 850 temps on the NAM look to be plenty cold enough to support snow on Friday evening. Surface temps look to be falling through the low to mid 30’s by early evening on Friday.

4645D913-4875-4664-B6BB-A33309D456E4.png

B7B464E6-1534-426D-B31F-0FEB0742575D.png

53732396-6142-4F2D-8DD8-EA2C9F9EF3A7.png

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3 hours ago, MAG5035 said:

I once thought as you do. Those last two winters I've tallied snow here in my signature at 54.6" and 52.2" are average winters at my location at the foot of the Laurels. The 16.2" is pretty much 30% of normal and the wall to wall futility was something i've never seen. I was completely over this winter by the beginning of March from a hitting the slopes standpoint as there was never a point this winter the local resorts had a period of even half decent conditions. But you know what? I'm all in on this possible debacle Friday night. It's not likely anything else going on right now is "normal" anyways lol. Plus a paste bomb may actually help insulate the vegetation some with low temps Sat morning in hard freeze territory (mid 20s) Sat morning back this way. 

Having a trace and having measurable are two different things. If the flakes are flyin in the air, that's a T for the day. Grapuel also counts as frozen precip too so a non or little accumulating grapuel shower would go down as a T as well... and that's definitely on the table Saturday in the LSV.  Lancaster has probably never had a recorded measurable event in May but that 1977 event for instance may have given them at T. Either way, any frozen that deep into the LSV in May is extremely rare.

I dunno if State College has anything like this but NWS Pittsburgh has a whole webpage of miscellaneous snowfall data for PIT going back to 1884. Their latest recorded snow was May 31, 1893 (T) and latest accumulation of snow was 0.5" on May 25, 1925. 

Hey...thanks for the correction! I knew that but honestly forgot. And to clarify, Lancaster hasn't had measurable. 

Like you, I've been done with snow for weeks, but I'm also a huge fan of anomalous events. Let it snow...

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