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John1122

February/March 2020 Winter's Last Chance Thread

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Just now, Holston_River_Rambler said:

Isotherm's latest update pretty much tosses the whole first half of Feb. Still, somehow, seems optimistic about late Feb and March. 

Lol at this entire winter, not you personally 

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Just now, Carvers Gap said:

7-I will save the future climate talk for other forums...

As for the window between Feb 5-7, still a storm signal there.  Still a trough at 500 still there.  That time frame has warmed, but that date range is still almost a week out.  Things can and will change.  Could get worse and could get better.  I am here to track storms.  No way I am sticking a fork in a storm one week out with the config at 500 on the Euro.  That is a nice storm evolution.  But it is fair to say that temps have not trended well.  The storm track is still there.  

Just seems like we are heading back into a wet pattern 

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Just now, weathertree4u said:

Just seems like we are heading back into a wet pattern 

Have we ever left it?  My yard hasn't dried out since the mini-drought last fall.   LOL.  Rain has been a constant.

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Maybe instead of raindance's idea of a repeat, we are actually running in reverse and will get back to November's pattern in March.

Looks familiar to me( 31 December's 12z EPS run, out to 360 hrs)

On 12/31/2019 at 6:44 PM, Holston_River_Rambler said:

Glad you mentioned that. The EPS looks that way too. 

If you run the EPS fast, it sort of looks like it's glitching. Not weathermodels, but the pattern lol. Maybe the whole NWP H5 pattern has reached a point where it can't get any worse and model attempts to project a worsening pattern are about to have a critical error?

giphy.gif

today's 12z EPS

giphy.gif

Remember when we had that conversation about the N Hemisphere pattern locking up? lol.

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Just now, Holston_River_Rambler said:

Maybe instead of raindance's idea of a repeat, we are actually running in reverse and will get back to November's pattern in March.

Looks familiar to me( 31 December's 12z EPS run, out to 360 hrs)

today's 12z EPS

giphy.gif

Remember when we had that conversation about the N Hemisphere pattern locking up? lol.

As noted earlier this week, the middle of February favors warm phases of the MJO and a trough in the West - particularly the middle ten days.  The first four days will be warm as well.  Will be interesting to see the Weeklies.  I would like to see how they go from those maps into weeks 3 and 4.  

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1 hour ago, Carvers Gap said:

Here is what I have for Januarys(month to date) on PRISM...18, 16, 15, 14, 11, 10, 9, and 8 are BN.  I have 8 BN and 4 AN for the past twelve, and seven of the past eleven.  Looks like 15 is the question mark.  Maybe the last three days were warm?  I can see Jan 1-29 for my comparison data for Januarys way back.  So, even if we are 6 of the 11 BN, I am not throwing in the towel on winters as a whole at this elevation.  It is not like we have had the heart of winter warm each year.   Over half of those Januarys, even with the conservative number, are cold.  Yeah, this year has been terrible so far.  But just no way to know what future winters are going to look like.  If we keep with the recent trend of roughly 2/3 being BN, not sure how one can make the claim that winter is over at this elevation.  I can understand the reasoning behind canceling this winter, but not sure data supports canceling future winters.  It is frustrating for all of us for sure, though.   But I know I will be here to finish this winter and be back for the next Lord willing.

Storm moves east but is a rainer verbatim.  With its almost due north trajectory, would likely be quite strong in reality.

15 finished -.1 at Memphis, -.2 at Nashville,  and -.1 at Tri-Cities. There was a +11 in Memphis and a +15 at Nashville in the last 3 days of the month. 

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1 hour ago, Carvers Gap said:

So, how has March looked during the past decade?  I have read some stuff about Decembers warming and Marchs cooling by J D'Aleo.  

March has been mixed. One really cold March, a couple mildly BN, a couple mildly AN and one mega torch that was +10. The coldest came in 2013 after a much AN winter. It was -5 to -8. 

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1 hour ago, weathertree4u said:

Nashville is now in fourth place for greatest number of days without at least a trace snow, seven hundred fifty days I think

I think you may mean days since Nashville has had greater than 1" of snow. We've had snow in most every winter month since then, but they have been Trace amounts or minor measureable accumulations. 

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1 minute ago, Coach B said:

I think you may mean days since Nashville has had greater than 1" of snow. We've had snow in most every winter month since then, but they have been Trace amounts or minor measureable accumulations. 

Could be

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28 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

Bleaklies. At least for once they give no hope, and maybe that is a sign things are about to turn:

giphy.gif

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It's because your name is spelled wrong in the panic room!  LOL.  You all messed that up.  Anyway, that is a pretty washed out look.  I will dig a bit deeper.  That run may be right, but it looked like a bunch of feedback.   We have found multiple ways to warm anomalies this winter.  Patterns have varied, but the result has not.  Also, very important to remember that the Weeklies don't do well during shoulder season.  But yeah, a step back for sure.  Bout the time we are all ready for spring, you know it is going to be cold.  Book it!   Just so the rest of you know I am realistic.  I put my seed order in two weeks ago for the garden.  The seeds for this year's garden are already on my counter!  We will keep hunting snowstorms though.  I won't be surprised to see ensembles break the other way and offer a couple of more 2-3 windows during Feb though it doesn't look good now.  They are still stuck between two camps.  I do think the base warm pattern continues with troughs rolling through.  Looks like next week will be our best chance for a while.  Hopefully somebody will score with it.  And also, thanks for putting that together. 

Lastly, I think what is probably going on is the MJO this AM is that the EPS showed some signs of heading into four on one of its variations.  The recent BOMM is COD all the way.  So, if we want to see some changes need to see an SSW or the MJO go into the COD.  Rally cap time for sure.

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First thing on the Weeklies.  The PV at 500(essentially the TPV) is very consolidated during the last 2.5 weeks of Feb.  Then, it gets disrupted by seasonal wavelengths during Feb.  The question, I have...Is that right?  The 12z Euro operational basically splits the SPV by d10 or at least really disrupts it.  The American model brings the PV back together.  Do we believe they are correct?  My hunch is that the cold sets up over Hudson Bay.  I can't decide if I believe the tailing trough holds in the West for that long.  It could, but the PV forecast will have to be correct and we must assume the cold won't push.  I will look at the MJO regions later tonight.  I will say, I feel like the Monday EPS gave us a pretty good heads-up to the mid-month warm-up with its MJO look.  Anyway, last I will say and it is a LONG shot, but we have had some big snowstorms during phases 4-5 I think.  @John1122would know.  Again, a long shot but the MJO I "think" loses some of its hold during late winter.  Someone, feel free to correct that.  But yeah, warm look by the Weeklies.  But we trust the Weeklies to be right?  Nah, just when they are warm.  LOL.  I normally don't punt a month, so I will hold out a bit.  But if we continue the trends of past winters, March could have some chances or it could be terrible - true diplomacy right there.

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My take. Not meant to be at odds with Carver's above. Was actually thinking about this today and saw that he went for a projection, so thought I'd throw one out there.

Besides I was cheated of my sacrifice (apparently my long lost brother Houston met his end) and subsequent plan to come back like Gandalf the white, so I guess I'm still here...

Trough dumps out west as depicted SE ridge verifies more amplified. Warmth and rumors of heat. Downsloping, maybe Greene county hits 80 once. Series of impulses ride the southern jet. We rain. Each disturbance amplifies as it moves north, cranking the SE and W Atlantic ridges up and one of these impulses, if it really gets going over the Canadian maritimes, aims a nice shot at the PV. Now, Masiello (not in his normal forecasting mode, but in his observation mode) has pointed out that the SPV has taken a shot every month this winter around the 20th. If this times out just right we get what we've been missing: the hammer and the anvil. N Atlantic/ Scandy ridge AND Northern Pac ridging puts the hurt on and splits the SPV. Model mayhem. Cold dumps somewhere and hopefully, following this winter's pattern, it dumps in Canada and comes south, just as the MJO finishes a tour of 4/5/6. Big westerly wind burst again and +AAM. QBO is at its lowpoint of the winter and we finally get some blocking to show up on modeling. Because of the uncertainty after a SPV split, I'll leave this one at this point in time. 

 

 

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The 18z GFS is pretty much perfect in terms of track.  Snow falls in middle TN.  Give me that track AND a storm of that intensity and I am good - no open wave or weak sauce storms.  That is a Miller A and a textbook one.  850s crashing into the back of the storm.  It could be rain, but that is a great track.  Temps are falling into the 30s as it passes.   If it wasn't this winter, I would be pretty excited about that.  Really a beautiful look.  

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25 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

My take. Not meant to be at odds with Carver's above. Was actually thinking about this today and saw that he went for a projection, so thought I'd throw one out there.

Besides I was cheated of my sacrifice (apparently my long lost brother Houston met his end) and subsequent plan to come back like Gandalf the white, so I guess I'm still here...

Trough dumps out west as depicted SE ridge verifies more amplified. Warmth and rumors of heat. Downsloping, maybe Greene county hits 80 once. Series of impulses ride the southern jet. We rain. Each disturbance amplifies as it moves north, cranking the SE and W Atlantic ridges up and one of these impulses, if it really gets going over the Canadian maritimes, aims a nice shot at the PV. Now, Masiello (not in his normal forecasting mode, but in his observation mode) has pointed out that the SPV has taken a shot every month this winter around the 20th. If this times out just right we get what we've been missing: the hammer and the anvil. N Atlantic/ Scandy ridge AND Northern Pac ridging puts the hurt on and splits the SPV. Model mayhem. Cold dumps somewhere and hopefully, following this winter's pattern, it dumps in Canada and comes south, just as the MJO finishes a tour of 4/5/6. Big westerly wind burst again and +AAM. QBO is at its lowpoint of the winter and we finally get some blocking to show up on modeling. Because of the uncertainty after a SPV split, I'll leave this one at this point in time. 

 

 

I am game.

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Last comment on the 18z GFS, as long as it has the "Vancouver to Boise to LA to the Pacific to Baja 500 special" beginning at 200...I just can believe it.  CMC had the same deal.  The Euro was a much more believable evolution.  

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Hold down the fort tomorrow.  Busy day on my end of things.  Will check back if if I can...just didn't want you all to think I was bailing.  Should be back some over the weekend and definitely by early next week.  

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0z EPS looked like it might have been trying to lift the trough out of the southwest at the very end, but TBH it's at like hour 340 something, so we'll see what happens at 12z. 

The 0z GEFS looks very, very similar and both have us at or slightly below normal with 850 temps. 

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14 hours ago, Coach B said:

I think you may mean days since Nashville has had greater than 1" of snow. We've had snow in most every winter month since then, but they have been Trace amounts or minor measureable accumulations. 

Here is the link...

 

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52 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

0z EPS looked like it might have been trying to lift the trough out of the southwest at the very end, but TBH it's at like hour 340 something, so we'll see what happens at 12z. 

The 0z GEFS looks very, very similar and both have us at or slightly below normal with 850 temps. 

I had this fired up and ready post yesterday, but thought...nah.  On some ensemble runs, that looks a lot like a cut-off low.  Now, the result downstream might still be the same as the trough might pull up into Canada.  But IMHO, for that EPS run, that looks mored like a cut-off than a trough.

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Also, the 0z Euro has two storm opportunities.  It manages to get snow into west TN with that third wave again.  It also has a new slider w snow for NE TN and one last true cold shot at the end.  We will see if that holds.  A little bit of a different look, so take with a huge grain.

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Some people really really want snow and cold this winter if you read all their post lmao. Anyways the Gfs and Euro starting to get us into more of an active/wetter pattern (yes wetter as if it hasnt already been wet enough lol). South east ridge going to be flexing but depending on its wins depends on how much rain trains on us. As last night eased up and we only got 3-5inchs via Gfs but this morning its already 8+ again with 50s and 60s throughout the period. Yeah no snow.

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9 minutes ago, skillsweather said:

Some people really really want snow and cold this winter if you read all their post lmao. Anyways the Gfs and Euro starting to get us into more of an active/wetter pattern (yes wetter as if it hasnt already been wet enough lol). South east ridge going to be flexing but depending on its wins depends on how much rain trains on us. As last night eased up and we only got 3-5inchs via Gfs but this morning its already 8+ again with 50s and 60s throughout the period. Yeah no snow.

I think we will survive.  LOL. And welcome to the forum.  During winter most folks are usually looking for snowy and wintry patterns.  So that drives the forum during winter and is actually what started it.  Now, we have folks that follow the weather year round.  We do severe wx, ENSO, summer wx patterns etc.   But yeah, it is warm and the first four days of Feb are going to be warmer likely.  

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11 minutes ago, skillsweather said:

Some people really really want snow and cold this winter if you read all their post lmao. Anyways the Gfs and Euro starting to get us into more of an active/wetter pattern (yes wetter as if it hasnt already been wet enough lol). South east ridge going to be flexing but depending on its wins depends on how much rain trains on us. As last night eased up and we only got 3-5inchs via Gfs but this morning its already 8+ again with 50s and 60s throughout the period. Yeah no snow.

And we also have some great meteorologists on our forum who chime in as well.  Again, welcome aboard.  Maybe we will eventually have something to track.  If not, severe season is up next. 

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I hope March and April doesn’t follow the trends over the last several years like Jan/February has. Nothing is more depressing than a AN winter and a BN spring.


.

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9 minutes ago, PowellVolz said:

I hope March and April doesn’t follow the trends over the last several years like Jan/February has. Nothing is more depressing than a AN winter and a BN spring.


 

Would not surprise me at all, Powell.   That SPV is getting kicked around...if it splits we could see a March 2018 redux.  Even if is splits today, with the lag it might not impact the troposphere until after mid-month.  The timing would be very similar to 2018 in that regard.  Hopefully it just winds down like a top vs splitting in early Feb.

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This is what I was talking about earlier regarding the pattern after Feb 10th.  The graphic below is 276 of the 0z EPS.  If I didn't already know the MJO forecast, I would say there has a chance to cut-off that energy and roll that trough eastward into Canada.  I think the endgame is still likely ridging in the SE.  However, it would likely mean the trough wouldn't dig into the West, just would spin and eventually come out as a storm.  There is also a big difference between a trough digging in the West and one that is in southern Canada pressing.  See my pattern pattern discussion graphic yesterday - the one with arrows.  It does dig into the West after this image, but the trend has been for more of a cut-off.  That would change the downstream pattern long term.  The 0z EPS is quite different from the Weeklies at this time frame.  So there remains the possibility that is actually a cutoff.  Models have been bouncing around between this look for several days.  Some really dig the trough into the West and some leave it there for just a matter of days. The Euro operational actually cuts of that low.  Still a ridge down stream, but that changes the game some.  

As for the 0z Euro, again if I lived in west Tennessee, I would be watching that third wave of low pressure.  Granted, waiting on a third wave is dicy.  But the Euro slp placement would likely be some winter there.  As evidence of low placement, many of us talked about the potential for winter weather this weekend just on slp placement alone.  Western North Carolina has heavy snow as we speak.  SLP placement matters regarding snow many times.  It is as important as temp profiles.

It is worth a reminder, many of us are hunting windows for winter weather.  I think we understand that a sustained, cold pattern is highly unlikely.  It has been noted multiple times.   Most of us are here to track winter storms during winter.  We know at this latitude that it does not want to snow about 98% of the time.  It would be like hunting a warm pattern in Alaska during mid-winter.  It happens, just not often.   Most of us are trying to see what the potential is for a pattern or window in terms of winter weather.  We all know the default is rain, especially in a base-warm pattern like this winter.  If you don't think I can go warm, go back to my December posts.  Right now, just looking at patterns and enjoying looking at each model run to see if we have a chance or two.   We only have about a month left, so going to enjoy working through interesting model runs.  We will hit a get stretch of winter again, though I am not convinced it is this winter or even the next winter.  Feel free to post ideas that are to the contrary.  That is what makes it fun - just don't make things personal. It is just weather. 

1592591028_ScreenShot2020-01-31at8_57_23AM.png.2d64b8ec5dd4e7c381eae379f20bb5e2.png

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