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Winter 2020 Med/Long Range Disco

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3 hours ago, Voyager said:

I'm just getting sick of the parade of storms at this point. How many months now have been above normal with precipitation?

That's alright, I'm sure next winter we will be in a drought and bitterly cold.

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4 hours ago, Voyager said:

I'm just getting sick of the parade of storms at this point. How many months now have been above normal with precipitation?

At least it's some action even though it's rain. Hell, I'm happy with windy days at this point...a little entertainment in the weather world. 35-50F, sunny with light winds is completely boring in my book.

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If we don't get a pattern shift in March, it should lead to a helluva severe season in March - April - May. These storm tracks with even a little bit of instability would be severe threat after severe threat. But as I said a few weeks ago, we'll probably punt the entire month of Feb, get a little hope in March that probably fails because it's March, then 8 weeks of cold, rain, and mud. I would be honestly happy if we slide right into spring come March after this winter, but let's be real, mother nature is going to stretch this monstrosity of a winter out as long as possible...

 

 

Side note: It's growing more and more likely that I set my all time futility record with every day that passes with no end to the pattern in sight. Still an inch below the dreaded 97-98 winter that finished with 2.4 inches. This winter will be the 6th winter in my lifetime(most likely) with < 10" of snow.  01-02 we had 5 inches, 11-12 we had 5.5 inches, 91-92 we had 6 inches, 07-08 we had 6.5 inches. So about 1 in every 5 years of my life so far has been a complete ratter winter.  But some good news,  in those 29 winters, we've never had back to back winters of < 10 inches. The average of the winters that came after those 5 < 10" winters was 23.8" with a median of 14". So next year should almost certainly be better even if it could be "bad" overall.

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Bored this morning so here are some more PHL stats.

 

Since 1884 there have been 21 winters with < 10" of snow at PHL. The average of the following winter was 24.6".  The median was 21.8". 5 of the 21 were followed by another year of <10". 11 of 21 were above normal including 2 of the top 3 snowiest winters of all time. So statistically, next year should be decent.

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Looks like a storm day 10 with some potential on the GFS. Been there a few runs now. Should be fun to watch this one go from an OTS miss to cutting over Chicago over the next 5 days. Or this will be the time the GFS nails it and the Carolina's/Southern VA sees a MECS which would actually fit with the theme of "snowing everywhere but here" of this winter. 

 

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_39.png

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2 hours ago, The Iceman said:

Looks like a storm day 10 with some potential on the GFS. Been there a few runs now. Should be fun to watch this one go from an OTS miss to cutting over Chicago over the next 5 days. Or this will be the time the GFS nails it and the Carolina's/Southern VA sees a MECS which would actually fit with the theme of "snowing everywhere but here" of this winter. 

 

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_39.png

Such a strange system....has been consistently on the op but is the only model showing it. Ensemble means are a mid lat ridge coming out of the SE, well AN 850s, etc. GFS is really a crap op model.

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2 hours ago, The Iceman said:

Looks like a storm day 10 with some potential on the GFS. Been there a few runs now. Should be fun to watch this one go from an OTS miss to cutting over Chicago over the next 5 days. Or this will be the time the GFS nails it and the Carolina's/Southern VA sees a MECS which would actually fit with the theme of "snowing everywhere but here" of this winter. 

 

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_39.png

This should work out just fine:

 

gfs-ens_T850a_us_41.png

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Taking any snow out of the conversation Larry Cosgrove seemed pretty concerned for a potential storm which could be a major player for extreme weather over most of the eastern US late month which the models seem to be hinting at. He also hinted that more major springs storms to could follow. March/April can be active months for high impact weather events so just because we may not snow that certainly doesn't mean we can't see a few high impact weather events which could bring others hazards.

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Todays 06z GFS has a classic miller A at the end of the run. Beautiful. Good hit from D.C to Boston. First one I've seen modeled this year.

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1 hour ago, wkd said:

Todays 06z GFS has a classic miller A at the end of the run. Beautiful. Good hit from D.C to Boston. First one I've seen modeled this year.

Fits the March pattern shift that last's til mid May. Hey at least we'd get our pity storm...

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2 hours ago, wkd said:

Todays 06z GFS has a classic miller A at the end of the run. Beautiful. Good hit from D.C to Boston. First one I've seen modeled this year.

 

That's the post run-run.  If that's accurate, the GFS wins the year.  

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3 hours ago, wkd said:

Todays 06z GFS has a classic miller A at the end of the run. Beautiful. Good hit from D.C to Boston. First one I've seen modeled this year.

0z had it cutting over Minnesota.  Been keeping an eye on it as I'll be in NNE during that time frame.  

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23 hours ago, The Iceman said:

Fits the March pattern shift that last's til mid May. Hey at least we'd get our pity storm...

We wont. Not seeing any hints or signals this March like we did the past several. Hopefully we will have severe. Not sure if the past few decent spring severe were due to the late winter events. If so maybe not a good omen.

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On 2/18/2020 at 7:59 AM, The Iceman said:

Fits the March pattern shift that last's til mid May. Hey at least we'd get our pity storm...

We will get hit hard in March

Fitting 

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36 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

We will get hit hard in March

Fitting 

The pattern evolution is much more supportive of NC and VA seeing a couple events. That is actually much more fitting tbh. We missed N, E, and W so far so now let's establish a window where S gets in on the action right? 

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Selling hard on the day 8/9 threat showing up on the models. +NAO with no blocking in sight. That storm is cutting up the apps as we get closer. We needed it to be 300 miles OTS at this juncture...

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6 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

The pattern evolution is much more supportive of NC and VA seeing a couple events. That is actually much more fitting tbh. We missed N, E, and W so far so now let's establish a window where S gets in on the action right? 

It's really unbelievable how much we've been screwed this winter. My sister lives in VA and will probably see some flakes while we get shafted yet again...

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7 hours ago, The Iceman said:

Selling hard on the day 8/9 threat showing up on the models. +NAO with no blocking in sight. That storm is cutting up the apps as we get closer. We needed it to be 300 miles OTS at this juncture...

Its over after March 1 bro...maybe one last trackable event before then. Euro and CMC say hold my beer groundhog.

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It has been over 

Worst winter ever

 

It's insane how nothing is working out.  I have never saw a winter like this before

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Take this winter out back and old yeller it. I want it to get warm. No more of these crappy days in the 30's and 40's. If it isn't going to snow, might as well torch so we can enjoy spring.

'

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16 minutes ago, The Iceman said:

Take this winter out back and old yeller it. I want it to get warm. No more of these crappy days in the 30's and 40's. If it isn't going to snow, might as well torch so we can enjoy spring.

 

I wouldn't go as far as "torch" but yeah cash me in on this winter. In return, give me an active/cool  Spring/Summer severe season to even things out a bit.

This Winter has truly been lame...it has been nonexistent. We barely had things to track and it's over.... (smack to the head) 

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