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Rjay

Mid to Long Range Threats

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IMO and I could be wrong so someone with more knowledge can correct me but IF the GFS and to some extent the Euro wind up being right then there has to be some kind of change going on with the overall patten that would make things more conducive for winter weather here especially along the coast. It will be either that or pure luck.

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6 minutes ago, HeadInTheClouds said:

Latest discussion from NWS Albany about mid-late week potential if anybody cares. 

 

Wed night into THU...A full latitude positively tilted mid and
upper level trough moves into the Central Plains with a strong mid
and upper level jet along the eastern portion of the trough over the
eastern CONUS.  Initially over running pcpn could break out Wed
night with snow or a mixture of pcpn types.  For now, we continue
snow and rain as the main ptypes but the GEFS/ECMWF are indicating
some sleet and freezing rain may be possible.  Also, some light to
moderate snow accumulations are possible. We will continue to
wait for a non cacophonous tune from the medium range
deterministic and ensemble guidance. Lows in the mid teens to
20s are likely Wed night with mainly mid 20s to mid and and
upper 30s on Thu.

Thu night through Friday...A large amount of spread continues in the
guidance here with the 12Z ECMWF indicating the mid and upper level
longwave trough becoming negatively tilted with the primary sfc wave
remaining west of the northern Appalachian Mtns, which would support
a warmer solution, while the 12Z CMC and some of the NAEFS/GEFS
are similar, the latest WPC shows support with an an occluded
front moving through. The 12Z GFS has a coastal wave moving from
the Delmarva Region to eastern Long Island Friday morning with
a decent snow event for a large portion of the area. WPC does
not favor this scenario, and based on the muddled and chaotic
medium range guidance we are not confident in the 12Z GFS
either. The 12Z GFS has a much flatter mid and upper level
trough too. Needless to say, a moderate to heavy pcpn system
with rain/snow or mixed pcpn is possible. It could also be windy
depending where the primary cyclone tracks. Temps still look to
run above early FEB climatological normals.

 

 

They forgot to add that the GFS is Also just an inferior model lol 

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3 hours ago, Rtd208 said:

 

IMO and I could be wrong so someone with more knowledge can correct me but IF the GFS and to some extent the Euro wind up being right then there has to be some kind of change going on with the overall patten that would make things more conducive for winter weather here especially along the coast. It will be either that or pure luck.

It will come down to the pac and epo location. The models are currently backing away from the -pna. So now  temperatures are closer to normal with the -epo. The boundary will be close so good luck getting a idea on what’s going to happen this far out. 

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I think sleet and freezing rain are possible for parts of the area especially NW of the city but I'm still having a hard time seeing a snow event from this, at least not until any models other than the GFS show this. 

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2 hours ago, Rtd208 said:

 

IMO and I could be wrong so someone with more knowledge can correct me but IF the GFS and to some extent the Euro wind up being right then there has to be some kind of change going on with the overall patten that would make things more conducive for winter weather here especially along the coast. It will be either that or pure luck.

Steve d mentioning February is toast. Pattern is terrible for any snow storms around here.

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4 minutes ago, NJsnow89 said:

Steve d mentioning February is toast. Pattern is terrible for any snow storms around here.

Good

Get the blowers ready

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GFS cold bias strikes again. 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2019/02/14/weather-service-prepares-launch-new-prediction-model-that-many-forecasters-dont-trust/

The model has tended to overpredict snowfall in the heavily populated Interstate 95 corridor in the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast, setting off false alarms in a region where forecasts are particularly consequential.

In Boston, which has seen just six inches of snow this winter, Eric Fisher, chief meteorologist for the CBS affiliate, remarkedthat the model had predicted “multiple” 30-inch snowfalls.

Here in Washington, we have documented multiple cases in which its snowfall forecasts several days into the future have been erroneously high. In early December, it was predicting double-digit amounts for Washington four days before a storm tracked to the south and no snow fell.

On Monday, the FV3 was predicting double-digit totals for a storm on Saturday in the Washington region, and it now calls for little snow.

 

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8 hours ago, HVSnowLover said:

GFS way north,  there goes the fantasy of this becoming interesting

Yep every model now has all rain. 

These models are atrocious 

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41 minutes ago, NYCweatherNOW said:

Reminds me of 2011-12 and 1997-98

Yeah I think we just gotta tough this one out, enjoy it for what it is. Even if we get a few more low snow winters, they aren't likely to be this warm, IMHO. We still had the few 2-4 events in the 80's, with the occasional blockbuster. This is going down as a serious clunker at this rate, but maybe March will pull us out again. 

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No positives for snowlovers in Larry Cosgroves weekly newsletter that's for sure. He says the pattern is NOT going to change and the Easter Seaboard will remain more mild/warm then cold. He also is hinting at a hot summer east of the Continental Divide and good chances for severe weather in the center of the country this spring.

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2 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

Yeah I think we just gotta tough this one out, enjoy it for what it is. Even if we get a few more low snow winters, they aren't likely to be this warm, IMHO. We still had the few 2-4 events in the 80's, with the occasional blockbuster. This is going down as a serious clunker at this rate, but maybe March will pull us out again. 

Well February just started. But the way this winter has been going it makes me a little upset after tracking so much and striking out every time

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2 hours ago, weatherpruf said:

Yeah I think we just gotta tough this one out, enjoy it for what it is. Even if we get a few more low snow winters, they aren't likely to be this warm, IMHO. We still had the few 2-4 events in the 80's, with the occasional blockbuster. This is going down as a serious clunker at this rate, but maybe March will pull us out again. 

I tend to agree. I think this is just one of those winters where it won’t snow. My hopes aren’t high for March either. 
 

The gfs is going to continue to give false hope with it’s medium range cold and snow bias. 

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Anyone else look at the 12z GGEM? Major snowstorm for northern NJ, NYC and LI wednesday night into thursday. Not that I buy it. Other models are not showing this. Probably just the GGEM overhyping like it often does. Pattern does not support a snowstorm for this area, though I wouldn't 100% rule it out. Every once in awhile we can get a very lucky thread the needle in a bad pattern. I really doubt this one though.

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2 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

Anyone else look at the 12z GGEM? Major snowstorm for northern NJ, NYC and LI wednesday night into thursday. Not that I buy it. Other models are not showing this. Probably just the GGEM overhyping like it often does. Pattern does not support a snowstorm for this area, though I wouldn't 100% rule it out. Every once in awhile we can get a very lucky thread the needle in a bad pattern. I really doubt this one though.

Digital Warning snows for everybody 

6BB6C302-44DF-402D-80F8-36AF8E78C5BA.png

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The ukie has been consistent with several inches of snow from the second wave Thursday morning the GFS and CMC flip-flopped today. Overall looking at all guidance the GFS is the warmest at 850. Even the nam a hour 84 is colder than the GFS most of the guidance gets the zero C line down to Southern New Jersey and South of Philly. Now we just need the precipitation to come in while it's still cold enough the third wave looks warm across the board

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45 minutes ago, NYCweatherNOW said:

Digital Warning snows for everybody 

6BB6C302-44DF-402D-80F8-36AF8E78C5BA.png

Our only hope is the 1st low is really amplified which helps brings the 2nd low further east.

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Seems like with these types of events it's very difficult to predict where the thermal boundary sets up. I certainly don't trust the forecast 3 or 4 days out. I'd rather be in Poughkeepsie for this,  but I think NYC has a shot at a prolonged period of frozen precipitation. As crappy as this Winter has been, I'll take it.

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12z Euro says you have to go to northwest Jersey to get any snow accumulation, which seems like the more likely scenario to me. But since GGEM and UKMET have snow closer to the coast, we still have slight hope.

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2 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

12z Euro says you have to go to northwest Jersey to get any snow accumulation, which seems like the more likely scenario to me. But since GGEM and UKMET have snow closer to the coast, we still have slight hope.

Euro tended trended way east from the lakes cutter. Not enough for the area but any more shifts and it will be enough for inland areas.

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2 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

12z Euro says you have to go to northwest Jersey to get any snow accumulation, which seems like the more likely scenario to me. But since GGEM and UKMET have snow closer to the coast, we still have slight hope.

The higher elevations of far NW NJ are about the realistic cutoff for any snow and it may even end up north of there in the end. This never was a NYC metro area snow event. I don’t care what the CMC and UKMET showed at 12Z

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6 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

The higher elevations of far NW NJ are about the realistic cutoff for any snow and it may even end up north of there in the end. This never was a NYC metro area snow event. I don’t care what the CMC and UKMET showed at 12Z

But if they were showing a warmer solution with all rain you would be jumping on them like a pitbull on a poodle. 

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We probably want this system as jacked up as possible so the following wave next Saturday goes under us. At best this is some sleet/ice to rain for the area. Don’t buy into the ggem/Ukmet silliness. 

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1 minute ago, HeadInTheClouds said:

But if they were showing a warmer solution with all rain you would be jumping on them like a pitbull on a poodle. 

No, I never take the CMC seriously, it’s almost as horrific as the GFS

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