MJO812 Posted February 2, 2020 Share Posted February 2, 2020 Just now, Allsnow said: Yeah, but now the system for next weekend is in a perfect spot with a weaker cutter. In this pattern you don’t want it perfect 160 hours out. Last nights euro with a stronger cutter the following system went south of us. Agree Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 2, 2020 Share Posted February 2, 2020 1 minute ago, HeadInTheClouds said: What area exactly? 50 miles north of city should see some snow from second wave. Best area for snow will be northern Pa into the lower Hudson valley/sne before a change over. I don’t see much snow falling for areas around the city and northern nj. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted February 2, 2020 Share Posted February 2, 2020 Just now, Allsnow said: Best area for snow will be northern Pa into the lower Hudson valley/sne before a change over. I don’t see much snow falling for areas around the city and northern nj. Yes, thats why I was asking for you to clarify. Latitude will play an important part in who sees what. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 2, 2020 Share Posted February 2, 2020 Just now, HeadInTheClouds said: Yes, thats why I was asking for you to clarify. Latitude will play an important part in who sees what. Absolutely. It’s a gradient pattern. I think last nights eps mean was 3-4 for me and 8-10 for sne. This is for the entire run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted February 2, 2020 Share Posted February 2, 2020 The CMC is indeed the snowiest in the next 10 day period. 11" in two rounds. 7" Wed. night, then 4" on the 9th. This will melt while still in the program's memory. I do not believe anything happens till PV looms close to us from the 13th-18th. Look for an accident at that time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted February 2, 2020 Share Posted February 2, 2020 1 hour ago, snowman19 said: No, I never take the CMC seriously, it’s almost as horrific as the GFS I agree they both suck and all globals have been bad this year IMO. I still won't totally dismiss any model within 4 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 2, 2020 Share Posted February 2, 2020 Not to be taking literally but insane gradient in snowfall the next two weeks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 2, 2020 Share Posted February 2, 2020 Epo looks pretty good on every model. Hopefully we get help from other places. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted February 2, 2020 Share Posted February 2, 2020 2 hours ago, HeadInTheClouds said: I agree they both suck and all globals have been bad this year IMO. I still won't totally dismiss any model within 4 days. Wave 2 could definitely be frozen to the coast, it depends where the gradient sets up, I would still favor Sleet/ZR over snow but you definitely rule out a burst of heavy snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted February 2, 2020 Share Posted February 2, 2020 GFS is way SE with wave 3, just another scenario on the table. Lot to sort out in the next 24-48 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 3, 2020 Share Posted February 3, 2020 18z euro very Icey for northern NJ Thursday morning. Nice strip of snow for lower Hudson valley also Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted February 3, 2020 Share Posted February 3, 2020 0Z Updates so far GFS doesn't really like Thursday at all anymore, very focused on Friday-Saturday as the main storm CMC lost the snowstorm, still has a solid sleet/ZR event for many in the area on Thursday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 3, 2020 Share Posted February 3, 2020 18 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said: 0Z Updates so far GFS doesn't really like Thursday at all anymore, very focused on Friday-Saturday as the main storm CMC lost the snowstorm, still has a solid sleet/ZR event for many in the area on Thursday Cmc didnt come out yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted February 3, 2020 Share Posted February 3, 2020 3 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Cmc didnt come out yet The CMC PCPN Type maps are out for 0Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 3, 2020 Share Posted February 3, 2020 Nice snowstorm on the euro for this weekend for the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 3, 2020 Share Posted February 3, 2020 Upton snowmap Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardofozz Posted February 3, 2020 Share Posted February 3, 2020 4 hours ago, MJO812 said: Nice snowstorm on the euro for this weekend for the coast Nice depiction if it can verify, hope this trends better as we approach Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted February 3, 2020 Share Posted February 3, 2020 5 hours ago, MJO812 said: Nice snowstorm on the euro for this weekend for the coast Another bait and switch? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 3, 2020 Share Posted February 3, 2020 5 hours ago, MJO812 said: Nice snowstorm on the euro for this weekend for the coast I'll believe this when I actually can measure it proof is in the pudding Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted February 3, 2020 Share Posted February 3, 2020 12 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: I'll believe this when I actually can measure it proof is in the pudding As if the Euro has been so stellar this season Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 3, 2020 Share Posted February 3, 2020 3 minutes ago, White Gorilla said: As if the Euro has been so stellar this season That particular OP solution is an outlier among its ensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 3, 2020 Share Posted February 3, 2020 Just now, bluewave said: That particular OP solution is an outlier among its ensembles. Yes but it has a decent signal just like the gefs. Gfs is also showing low. Let's see if the models continue to show this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 3, 2020 Share Posted February 3, 2020 7 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: I'll believe this when I actually can measure it proof is in the pudding Same Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB-99 Posted February 3, 2020 Share Posted February 3, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 3, 2020 Share Posted February 3, 2020 15 minutes ago, PB-99 said: best outcome for us is if the MJO skedaddles into the COD and stays there for 2 months - let the -EPO and -WPO take control Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted February 3, 2020 Share Posted February 3, 2020 26 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: best outcome for us is if the MJO skedaddles into the COD and stays there for 2 months - let the -EPO and -WPO take control How would those interact with a super positive AO, NAO and negative PNA? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 3, 2020 Share Posted February 3, 2020 1 minute ago, White Gorilla said: How would those interact with a super positive AO, NAO and negative PNA? I have no idea - do you ? But chances are it might not be pretty...…...especially if that stubborn SE ridge stays put..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted February 3, 2020 Share Posted February 3, 2020 43 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: I have no idea - do you ? But chances are it might not be pretty...…...especially if that stubborn SE ridge stays put..... If I had an idea I wouldn't have asked. :). I was purely curious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 3, 2020 Share Posted February 3, 2020 The gfs has the light snowfall for Saturday night on today’s 12z run. It’s not as amped as the euro(which the euro is probably wrong on) but it has potential. As long as we get a strong cutter Thursday we should have a good airmass for it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB-99 Posted February 3, 2020 Share Posted February 3, 2020 We want these starting south of us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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