Brian5671 Posted March 2, 2020 Share Posted March 2, 2020 29 minutes ago, Allsnow said: I like how the snow part of this (if any) will be coming Friday night. Night time would be key-anything at 12 noon or even 2pm won't likely cut it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 2, 2020 Share Posted March 2, 2020 One of the reasons we have a chance at anything is because of the shorter wavelengths in March @bluewave And a temporary 50/50 from Tuesday storm that is slowing the flow down Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB-99 Posted March 2, 2020 Share Posted March 2, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB-99 Posted March 2, 2020 Share Posted March 2, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted March 2, 2020 Share Posted March 2, 2020 11 minutes ago, PB-99 said: Best Guess for northern NJ -SNOW according to soundings on CMC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 2, 2020 Share Posted March 2, 2020 Frigid airmass there lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted March 2, 2020 Share Posted March 2, 2020 2 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: Frigid airmass there lol don't need a frigid airmass look at soundings ignore the various precip colors on OP maps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted March 2, 2020 Share Posted March 2, 2020 3 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: don't need a frigid airmass look at soundings ignore the various precip colors on OP maps https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gem®ion=neus&pkg=asnow&runtime=2020030212&fh=144 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 2, 2020 Share Posted March 2, 2020 JB says it "might" be coming... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted March 2, 2020 Share Posted March 2, 2020 5 minutes ago, snowman19 said: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gem®ion=neus&pkg=asnow&runtime=2020030212&fh=144 clown map at this range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted March 2, 2020 Share Posted March 2, 2020 anybody have the list of top analogs for this coming event ? The Dec 24 -26th 2002 event - the second half of it comes to mind when 2 separate systems bombed off the coast changing rain to snow http://www.raymondcmartinjr.com/weather/2003/25-Dec-02.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB-99 Posted March 2, 2020 Share Posted March 2, 2020 The air mass %^&. You would need the cleanest of phases and a perfectly placed deepening system. Or you could play 6, 15, 24, 38, 55, 63 * 5 and see if that works too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 2, 2020 Share Posted March 2, 2020 Every model today just misses Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted March 2, 2020 Share Posted March 2, 2020 3 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Every model today just misses luckily they miss just east and we don't want to be in the bulls eye at this range...…..plus some still have us getting some precip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 2, 2020 Share Posted March 2, 2020 12 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: luckily they miss just east and we don't want to be in the bulls eye at this range...…..plus some still have us getting some precip one other interesting thing-alot of warm water off the coast and also not churned up due to the lack of storms-that could favor a big deepener Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted March 2, 2020 Share Posted March 2, 2020 11 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: one other interesting thing-alot of warm water off the coast and also not churned up due to the lack of storms-that could favor a big deepener with a large precip field as both lows merge Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 2, 2020 Share Posted March 2, 2020 Euro is further east Fast flow is killing us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted March 2, 2020 Share Posted March 2, 2020 one last insult to end winter.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 2, 2020 Share Posted March 2, 2020 10 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Euro is further east Fast flow is killing us No blocking, no storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 2, 2020 Share Posted March 2, 2020 4 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: No blocking, no storm Agree Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted March 2, 2020 Share Posted March 2, 2020 The only thing that has kept me from writing this completely off is that the ensembles seem to be a bit more enthused then the Op runs but I am still leaning against it. I think we could see some good winds out of it as the storm wraps up and pulls away though. If anything this is more of a threat for New England then our area IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB-99 Posted March 2, 2020 Share Posted March 2, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted March 2, 2020 Share Posted March 2, 2020 Just now, PB-99 said: Ugh why do so many have to be so good? It almost doesn't make sense this close either... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB-99 Posted March 2, 2020 Share Posted March 2, 2020 6 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said: Ugh why do so many have to be so good? It almost doesn't make sense this close either... Kinda need to get up real close when it comes to phasing. That`s a real split camp , hitters and whiffs. Need some time here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB-99 Posted March 2, 2020 Share Posted March 2, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted March 2, 2020 Share Posted March 2, 2020 14 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said: Ugh why do so many have to be so good? It almost doesn't make sense this close either... about half of the members have a significant hit - so 50 - 50 chance right now on the Euro still being 4+ days out - jury is still out...……. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tek1972 Posted March 2, 2020 Share Posted March 2, 2020 This panel seems most likely from what I can tell from models at this time, but I'm sure all the models will change over next two days.Sent from my SM-N975U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted March 2, 2020 Share Posted March 2, 2020 1 hour ago, PB-99 said: Kinda need to get up real close when it comes to phasing. That`s a real split camp , hitters and whiffs. Need some time here. We all know the hit members are out to lunch, just strange there's so many this close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB-99 Posted March 2, 2020 Share Posted March 2, 2020 Just now, Ericjcrash said: We all know the hit members are out to lunch, just strange there's so many this close. Nice to dream tho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 2, 2020 Share Posted March 2, 2020 3 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said: We all know the hit members are out to lunch, just strange there's so many this close. How do you know they are out to lunch? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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