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Kmlwx

2020 Mid-Atlantic Severe Weather - General Thread

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Couple of 52 kt pixels with the activity over Laurel and DC proper.  Really isn't going to take much convection to bring any severe level winds down to the surface.

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10 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Per GOES16, decent uptick in lightning with the activity from Walkersville on north into Carroll County.

And as soon as it went over the ridge...pretty much dies out.  A little bit of rain, and some quick gusts, but not much else.

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7 minutes ago, nw baltimore wx said:

It’s been pouring here for the last 30 minutes. Gusty winds and thunder.

yeah i guess that skinny squall line finally hit here. Windy, no thunder, raining. But sun is already trying to come out behind it.

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That cell approaching Kent Island is trying to wrap up and has a bit of a flying eagle look to it. Wouldn't shock me if PHI put a TOR possible SVR out with it. LWX has waterspouts mentioned in the SMW.

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Some beefy winds have taken down some healthy, large trees in far NW Montgomery and portions of Frederick County. Not your typical rotted root bal, healthy hardwood oaks and such.

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Just now, Eskimo Joe said:

Some beefy winds have taken down some healthy, large trees in far NW Montgomery and portions of Frederick County. Not your typical rotted root bal, healthy hardwood oaks and such.

Yeah...tis a blowin'.  I live on top of the first hill going into New Market and it blew some things over already that haven't budged in months....

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For Monday - 

The 12z EURO warms us pretty nicely (low to mid 80s in VA even). Has a little low down in southern VA. Not sure that'll do it for us up here. It'll be a close call regardless. Still time to go - a bit more of a slowing trend would help us as well perhaps. A front crossing between 21z and 0z would be ideal from a heating standpoint. 

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1 minute ago, Kmlwx said:

For Monday - 

The 12z EURO warms us pretty nicely (low to mid 80s in VA even). Has a little low down in southern VA. Not sure that'll do it for us up here. It'll be a close call regardless. Still time to go - a bit more of a slowing trend would help us as well perhaps. A front crossing between 21z and 0z would be ideal from a heating standpoint. 

Bring us home

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Just now, Eskimo Joe said:

Bring us home

I'd feel much better if I was sitting down in Richmond or elsewhere in SEVA for this. I'll track it until we fail...but I'm just not sure this is going to be a win for us. Certainly a low probability thing up near mappyville. 

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Also - while not a BIG signal by any means - the 108hr on CIPS from from the 12z suite is showing some severe potential in the Mid-Atlantic/PA area. 

 

5/6-7/1991 is showing up for a few runs now. 

4/16/1994 as well

4/19-20/2013 which looks good on the maps. 

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I know this is way out there for the NAM but it is trending slower and further west and the Euro has also been slower with the Sunday/Monday severe weather event...wherever that is centered.

 

 

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10 minutes ago, southmdwatcher said:

I know this is way out there for the NAM but it is trending slower and further west and the Euro has also been slower with the Sunday/Monday severe weather event...wherever that is centered.

 

 

At some point, the trend is likely to slow or stop...and the GFS is still a fast outlier. Easy to toss with the other models against it - but it could also be a compromise.

EE rule? lol

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31 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Posted by a met who I believe works for Mt Holly WFO

 

So approaching 60 kts right off the deck towards DC... just a little windy

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4 hours ago, Kmlwx said:

I'd feel much better if I was sitting down in Richmond or elsewhere in SEVA for this. I'll track it until we fail...but I'm just not sure this is going to be a win for us. Certainly a low probability thing up near mappyville. 

I’ll share the weather with you all from Richmond... somehow...

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Looking at the sounding climatology page on the SPC site - it looks like some of the 925mb and 850mb wind speeds the models are putting out for Monday around 12z, they'd be near record levels...not just for the date but in general. 

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10 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

Looking at the sounding climatology page on the SPC site - it looks like some of the 925mb and 850mb wind speeds the models are putting out for Monday around 12z, they'd be near record levels...not just for the date but in general. 

          Yes, those early morning wind speeds Monday will be incredible, and that's probably our best shot at SVR.    The warm air will be racing north, and there may be a window in the early hours during which the amazing wind fields are overhead and we get a little bit of sfc-based instability.     Ultimately, we probably won't have sfc-based convection, but if we do, watch out!  But even with the front slowing down a lot, I'm not too excited about SVR potential during the afternoon (as of now).     The strongest wind fields and best moisture will quickly shift to our northeast Monday morning, and we're going to end up in the dry slot with strongly veered low-level flow.       The downscoping will likely send us into the low 80s, but we're going to dry out a lot in the low levels.  Maybe we get a strongly-forced low top line with some wind later in the day, but I don't see more than that as of now, although there is still time for changes.

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In fact, that GFS run seems to indicate there could be some instability around in a narrow band at around 15z. Also, some of the winds at 15z and 18z are stronger than last run. Keep the trend going!

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Monday is starting to look interesting up even towards Baltimore and Frederick.  It's going to be interesting to see how Sunday plays out down south...if things go as planned down there then we probably stand a good chance of seeing a decent line move through.

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