wolfie09 Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 1 minute ago, Thinksnow18 said: All snow for which system Wolfie? NWS is going all snow with both systems here but the first one (16th) is a bit sketchy with LP going right through CNY.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 It wouldn't take much to get me involved though, verbatim is about an inch, need 25-50 miles south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 9 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: NWS is going all snow with both systems here but the first one (16th) is a bit sketchy with LP going right through CNY.. Yeah I knew they were leaning towards all snow for the 18th wasn't sure about the 16th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 LR NAM goes through southern NY Thursday, which would be a perfect track but it's the LR NAM Models must really hate freak Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 Icon has slowly been shifting south these last few runs (Thursday), some wrap around moisture as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 Guys, just be careful not to get your hopes up on Saturday. It’s great to see BUF so confident but man, I really don’t feel it. How can you buck this trend? It’s the icon, and it’s trending south, but how familiar does this look? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 This was the 12z icon yesterday for Thursday..Now it's south of me lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 Gfs!!! Has some nice wrap around after starting as rain.. For the first system.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 13, 2020 Author Share Posted January 13, 2020 Who is using the Icon. SMH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 The 12z GFS has shifted south with the Thursday low taking almost right down the 90...another 50 miles south and were looking at a light 2 or 3 inch snowfall when yesterday there was nothing at all. And that is now in range at 72 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 The wrap around is what has me intrigued.. LR NAM has 3"(lower elevations) to 6"(higher elevations) and it's still snowing..East of L.Ontario.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 13, 2020 Author Share Posted January 13, 2020 Riding the line Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 Just now, wolfie09 said: The wrap around is what has me intrigued.. LR NAM has 3"(lower elevations) to 6"(higher elevations) and it's still snowing.. It's just on the edge at hour 108 but it appears already the GFS will be all snow atm for Saturday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 Looks like a solid run.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 Just waiting for the euro to take us down a peg lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 Two things in our favor for the weekend...1) not a strong system, but has get good lift and plenty of moisture...2) there's 2 very strong highs that Wolfie eluded to earlier that aren't racing off to the east. This plus the 50/50 low that moves through thursday slows the progression of the high from going off the east coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 Euro was a little weaker this morning already so seeing a weaker system will not surprise me...that output from the GFS was the most yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 Only thing that concerns me a little is the transferring of energy lol We get all our snow from the primary.. U can see how the heavy stuff gets pulled east on the European.. Which had about a 6-9 hr thump before transitioning to some light snow, which I'd gladly take lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 I really think there could be just as much LES as synoptic snow for some of us as well... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 Canadian is also rain to snow on Wednesday night/Thursday..If we can get it 50 miles south it would be all snow CNY on North.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 Gfs and Ggem pretty similar.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 Not to be a Debbie Downer, but there's no way we stay snow very long with a 994 LP over BUF . We either need a weaker low and quicker xfer or a more W-E trajectory about 100 mile further south w/quick xfer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 1 minute ago, vortmax said: Not to be a Debbie Downer, but there's no way we stay snow very long with a 994 LP over BUF . We either need a weaker low and quicker xfer or a more W-E trajectory about 100 mile further south w/quick xfer. This^^^ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 28 minutes ago, 96blizz said: I really think there could be just as much LES as synoptic snow for some of us as well... Yeah, Thursday holds some sneaky potential between enhancement and NW flow lake effect. Have to see what SR guidance shows starting tomorrow .. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 2 minutes ago, vortmax said: Not to be a Debbie Downer, but there's no way we stay snow very long with a 994 LP over BUF . We either need a weaker low and quicker xfer or a more W-E trajectory about 100 mile further south w/quick xfer. Classic thump to snizzle to lake effect... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 Just now, wolfie09 said: Yeah, Thursday holds some sneaky potential between enhancement and NW flow lake effect. Have to see what SR guidance shows starting tomorrow .. Yeah - I’m talking both Thursday and Sunday/Monday. The set up is beautiful on that NW flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 U don't see those odds for D 6 very often, even if it's only for a few inches.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 Well Fwiw Which does include the first system.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 13, 2020 Author Share Posted January 13, 2020 23 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: What's funny is the NWS obviously thinks it's plausible lol They talked about a system going to our west (or over us) but the forecast is all snow.. This system is different, that's why. We are not seeing a system rapidly intensify and cut from Ohio up through our forum. It's sliding across from Michigan into NYS. Much more likely to stay all snow this way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 @wolfie09 thanks for all the maps and posting you do. It’s truly appreciated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.