Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 Let me try that again: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 First one only went to 240 hrs, this one gets the whole run. GEFS seemed nice to me, just storms after storms, not all snow, but at least lots of chances. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 This is the strongest +IOD on record this year since 1982 per SINTEX.In Feb the of 2007 the IOD was still reading + but this is typical of strong IOD events.Every year since 1982 not counting this year there has always been a moderate to strong LaNina the following ,.1995,1997,2007 Unlike the low solar years like this year these IOD events have happened into the mid decades which makes this seem rather unusual to an extent Even with the low solar there has never been a SSW IN 1994-1995 AND 1997-1998.This could have some merit because of a stronger ENSO compared to 2006-2007. In 2006-2007 The ENSO was a border line weak-moderate ElNino winter.But this was the only winter season to actually have a SSW into Feb.It got real cold though in Feb of 2007,there is also signs of a SSW upcoming.Who know at this point,but something to keep an eye on.. https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/national/200702 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 4 minutes ago, jaxjagman said: there is also signs of a SSW upcoming.Who know at this point,but something to keep an eye on.. Was actually about to post some gifs about it for the Euro, GFS, and GOES models, but my computer crapped out. Euro has enough of an umph to break off a little whirl of it: GFS wanting to elongate it: GOES has some disruptions, but not as much One of the things I noticed when we had the ensemble flop a while back was that the GFS was thinking about a split, but Euro reconsolidated it over Siberia and once the Euro saw that, that contributed to the flip. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 20 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said: Was actually about to post some gifs about it for the Euro, GFS, and GOES models, but my computer crapped out. Euro has enough of an umph to break off a little whirl of it: GFS wanting to elongate it: GOES has some disruptions, but not as much One of the things I noticed when we had the ensemble flop a while back was that the GFS was thinking about a split, but Euro reconsolidated it over Siberia and once the Euro saw that, that contributed to the flip. Similar pattern it would turn cold with the AK warming by the weeklies,can you make your screen bigger when you post with tinypic?It could make the clarity better? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 Getting interesting . 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 IMGUR still hates me and wants me to die apparently... 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 Just now, Holston_River_Rambler said: I tried to look that up, but it says tinypic is no longer operational. I think I may have figured out IMGUR though: https://imgur.com/a/d9ul6Lb I use google chrome awesome pic,but i can understand how tinypic works Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 Just now, Holston_River_Rambler said: Just curious why the IMGUR embed quote has "HREF" in it Could be cache? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 Just now, Holston_River_Rambler said: I'm using a mac, so that could be it. Will try my PC tomorrow. Thought about your pics just now and tinypics are what they are tinypics,i have to enlarge my pics to see them,its no big deal 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 Just now, Holston_River_Rambler said: ahh, I see, I thought you meant I was uploading them on tinypic, giphy is the same way,i thought you was using tiny Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 2 minutes ago, jaxjagman said: i thought you was using tiny Nope, only giphy, but I will figure out imgur, one day.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 Just a note you can still get tropical monitoring on NCICS. Ventrice took it off his site for some reason. https://ncics.org/portfolio/monitor/mjo/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 3 minutes ago, jaxjagman said: Just a note you can still get tropical monitoring on NCICS. Ventrice took it off his site for some reason. Did he take all the links off permanently? Noticed I had to start typing "MJO dynamical models" into google to get the full MJO model suite mess, instead of just clicking on Ventrice's page. TBH couldn't remember if they were on his page or not, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 2 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said: Did he take all the links off permanently? Noticed I had to start typing "MJO dynamical models" into google to get the full MJO model suite mess, instead of just clicking on Ventrice's page. TBH couldn't remember if they were on his page or not, lol. Maybe money or rights?Not sure why he'd ommit it.It's a great tool and easy to decipher oceanic waves 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 18 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said: Did he take all the links off permanently? Noticed I had to start typing "MJO dynamical models" into google to get the full MJO model suite mess, instead of just clicking on Ventrice's page. TBH couldn't remember if they were on his page or not, lol. I use the CPC for the MJO,it usually updates our time just after 8 or some where in that line in the morning,Euro is later on tho https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/mjo.shtml 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 3 hours ago, jaxjagman said: This is the strongest +IOD on record this year since 1982 per SINTEX.In Feb the of 2007 the IOD was still reading + but this is typical of strong IOD events.Every year since 1982 not counting this year there has always been a moderate to strong LaNina the following ,.1995,1997,2007 Unlike the low solar years like this year these IOD events have happened into the mid decades which makes this seem rather unusual to an extent Even with the low solar there has never been a SSW IN 1994-1995 AND 1997-1998.This could have some merit because of a stronger ENSO compared to 2006-2007. In 2006-2007 The ENSO was a border line weak-moderate ElNino winter.But this was the only winter season to actually have a SSW into Feb.It got real cold though in Feb of 2007,there is also signs of a SSW upcoming.Who know at this point,but something to keep an eye on.. https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/national/200702 More poleward today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 Mostly bleh runs at 0z. GFS tosses some 1 in a 1000 stuff at 300+. We have about 35-40 days left of true winter chances. If it doesn't improve this is easily the least snowy 4 year stretch in the last 90 years at least imby and most of the snow I've seen has been in spring. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathertree4u Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 I gather from the previous postings of charts, diagrams and videos that the PV is not expected to assist any with cold air going forward, the missing ingredient to all of these great southern systems, really bites. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 @weathertree4u All that PV mess last night was more aimed at it looks more likely now that it has all season, BUUUUT, that's not saying much and doesn't mean it's gonna to happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 Check out the longwave pattern the control was going for in the longrange. Looks to me like its going for ridging into the EPO and NAO areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathertree4u Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 6 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said: @weathertree4u All that PV mess last night was more aimed at it looks more likely now that it has all season, BUUUUT, that's not saying much and doesn't mean it's gonna to happen. Was hoping that was the case and that by posting that I could get a translation, thank you! Just an awful waste to see all the southern storms and not have enough cold air; if the last run of the GFS is to be believed, Jacksonville Florida could get a good storm! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathertree4u Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 1 minute ago, Holston_River_Rambler said: Check out the longwave pattern the control was going for in the longrange. Looks to me like its going for ridging into the EPO and NAO areas. Looks good, I wholeheartedly agree but we have had issues translating the long range into the short range lately, seems to always change - although I can say that doesnt not look like we will be in an extremely warm pattern going forward as previous which is always good too see if for nothing else to slow some of the plants down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 Euro had a new look for the SPV last night: GFS kind of looks like the Euro did yesterday: Last time there was a displacement this winter, Euro did better, but overall the GFS (at least as the Fv3) has better track record the past couple of years Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 9 minutes ago, weathertree4u said: Looks good, I wholeheartedly agree but we have had issues translating the long range into the short range lately, seems to always change Sure, things change or fall apart, but I've decided I kinda like at least looking at the control alongside the EPS smoothed means, since it gives a concrete picture of where things might really go, to compare to the smoothed mean that has a 50 different possibilities figured in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathertree4u Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 1 minute ago, Holston_River_Rambler said: Sure, things change or fall apart, but I've decided I kinda like at least looking at the control alongside the EPS smoothed means, since it gives a concrete picture of where things might really go, to compare to the smoothed mean that has a 50 different possibilities figured in. That is true - according to the EURO looks like the PV is displaced headed towards the continental US - in reality, I will never be satisfied with the Winter season living in the South, I recognize that! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 Modeling is all over the place. Mentioned a day or two ago that it was probably going to be fairly erratic. Want to see "almost" perfect placement of AN height anomalies at high latitude that would result in us being the icebox...see the Euro control. The EPS pulls back some on the trough but we will see how far back it can actually get. The 6z GEFS corrected its western look more eastward. Right now looks like a cold dump into the East and settles back into the front range. SER will be there off and on it looks like. Not unusual and should not be a surprise given recent discussions about it. I don't think I buy the suppressed looks on modeling over night. It is not unusual for storms to get lost on modeling. Overall, I think the LR models have yet to settle on a LR look. High latitude blocking is showing up at times. My general rule of thumb when models begin to bounce around is that big changes are coming and that possible very cold air is about to enter the lower 48. Looks like a stormy pattern ahead for the next month or so. Vols vs Kansas today. Hoping my Vols can keep it close late into the contest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 For kicks and giggles just after 300...The Euro Control pretty much goes nuts at high latitudes. Does eventually get a slight SER...but that is "almost" what you want right there. Please remember it is the control and it will change. Just thought we'd admire its work from overnight. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 Looks like the trend on the MJO this morning is about to go into the COD and be there for a bit. The Euro has lost most of its amplitude regarding its phase 6 loop. It might stay there 4-5 days at most with some of those days barely in 6. The BOMM a few days back basically stuck the MJO in the COD and left it there. My suspicion on this is that the MJO is about to head to some good phases. We will see if I am correct. One interesting thing to see is if the MJO heads into phases 1-3 which looks an awful lot like what is on ensembles. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 Sticking to giphy for now: Looking good in the Eastern Indian Ocean: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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