December/January 2019/20 Winter Speculation Thread

[Mr. Kevin]

39 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

Changing wavelengths prevent a bad pattern from locking-in often during shoulder season.  Once the winter season settles-in, those drivers have a lot more strength.  

This is an ugly pattern coming up, but I think folks have been fairly warned for some time that multiple indices soured a couple of weeks ago.  This warm-up and its duration should be no surprise.  Nino winters generally start warm, sometimes very warm.  That is in my notes from June about winter.  Can't get more warning than that.  LOL.

Now, some don't like the 12z EPS.  Looks good to me as it lowers heights in the East.  We will get a temporary cold shot I think during the second week of January followed by more warm.  What is tough is that we all think about last year and worry about a repeat.  These Nino winters can and do flip on a dime, and they don't care about past statistics.  I fully expect a flip to happen similar to what happened during fall.  It gets old repeating that flips do happen, especially last year when it didn't happen at all.  That said, I still suspect we see a very sharp reversal at some point...but make no mistake, we have plenty of warm weather before we get there.  But it is always wise to remember, some of our best winters were had after VERY warm starts to winter, even including large portions of January.  Might happen and might not this winter...but I can just about guarantee we will see multiple( great winters during the future that begin warm.

Carver, Convection in the eastern IO if its firing up would be ok because unless phase 3 is wrong, it shows cold for us if I'm reading it right off the charts. Starting January of course. I will hang on until mid January and if things dont look good, I'm throwing in the towel for sure.

[Carvers Gap]

32 minutes ago, Mr. Kevin said:

Carver, Convection in the eastern IO if its firing up would be ok because unless phase 3 is wrong, it shows cold for us if I'm reading it right off the charts. Starting January of course. I will hang on until mid January and if things dont look good, I'm throwing in the towel for sure.

Convection is found across the entire Indian Ocean basin as of mid-day.  

[jaxjagman]

1 hour ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

I don't know, I felt like we did ok, earlier in the season when the convection was in the western Indian Ocean.  Now the eastern IO has played not so nice, but if we're looking at the same thing, that convection looks west and to be moving more west. 

Wouldn't the western IO be phase 2? 

Still quite a bit over the Maritime Continent though:

Another thought (apologies if I messing this up): is the western Indian Ocean also being impacted by the Rossby wave Jax was talking about a few days ago? If so, that flare up may be temporary as it moves westward. 

Agree that the GEFS has done a typical GEFS flop. Even the spaghetti plots from the18z don't see anything like the EPO from only 12 hours ago:

I thought at first maybe it was seeing some new convection in the maritime continent:

But the GEFS had about the same thing as above 24 hours ago when it was showing the better 500 mb look.

EPS likes more western IO convection and then a gradual transition to western hemisphere convection. 

Trying to find the GEFS Hovmoller diagrams, but alas, I can't right now for a comparison to see if the way it sees the same variable has something to do with it's flop. 

 

Looking at the trend of the trend at 500 mb, looks like the GEFS has suddenly changed its mind on the NAO region as well, and that impacts the way it deals with the TPV in Canada, and that guides the flow over us:

 

2 hours ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

I don't know, I felt like we did ok, earlier in the season when the convection was in the western Indian Ocean.  Now the eastern IO has played not so nice, but if we're looking at the same thing, that convection looks west and to be moving more west. 

Wouldn't the western IO be phase 2? 

Still quite a bit over the Maritime Continent though:

Another thought (apologies if I messing this up): is the western Indian Ocean also being impacted by the Rossby wave Jax was talking about a few days ago? If so, that flare up may be temporary as it moves westward. 

Agree that the GEFS has done a typical GEFS flop. Even the spaghetti plots from the18z don't see anything like the EPO from only 12 hours ago:

I thought at first maybe it was seeing some new convection in the maritime continent:

But the GEFS had about the same thing as above 24 hours ago when it was showing the better 500 mb look.

EPS likes more western IO convection and then a gradual transition to western hemisphere convection. 

Trying to find the GEFS Hovmoller diagrams, but alas, I can't right now for a comparison to see if the way it sees the same variable has something to do with it's flop. 

 

Looking at the trend of the trend at 500 mb, looks like the GEFS has suddenly changed its mind on the NAO region as well, and that impacts the way it deals with the TPV in Canada, and that guides the flow over us:

On your map of the 200hpa VP on the GEFS, this seems possible this could just be ENSO noise as there is a WWB showing up along the IDL upcoming

[Mr. Kevin]

18 minutes ago, jaxjagman said:

 

On your map of the 200hpa VP on the GEFS, this seems possible this could just be ENSO noise as there is a WWB showing up along the IDL upcoming

Jax, eric webb mentioned about the WWB heading east toward the idl. If that happens, would that be good for us?

[Daniel Boone]

Not to be a Debbie downer but, the truly GREAT Winters did not have extended mild patterns in the heart of Winter. 62-63, 69-70, (76-77 although it went mild by Feb. 20.) 77-78, 95-96 although it had several short mild breaks. The 2000s best Winters did feature more mild spells, however. 

   Hopefully, Central Pac. Nino forcing will take over along with the loosening of the +Iod affects. 

[Mr. Kevin]

4 minutes ago, Daniel Boone said:

Not to be a Debbie downer but, the truly GREAT Winters did not have extended mild patterns in the heart of Winter. 62-63, 69-70, (76-77 although it went mild by Feb. 20.) 77-78, 95-96 although it had several short mild breaks. The 2000s best Winters did feature more mild spells, however. 

   Hopefully, Central Pac. Nino forcing will take over along with the loosening of the +Iod affects. 

I think that if the mjo stayed in phases 2 and 3 in January, that would be good because the charts indicate it colder if i am reading the maps right.

[jaxjagman]

3 minutes ago, Mr. Kevin said:

Jax, eric webb mentioned about the WWB heading east toward the idl. If that happens, would that be good for us?

It could push the warmer SSTS INTO 3.4

[Mr. Kevin]

Just now, jaxjagman said:

It could push the warmer SSTS INTO 3.4

We need a few breaks go our way so we can be optimistic moving forward. 

[Daniel Boone]

Not meaning to rain on anybody's parade with the previous post as I guess a " great Winter" depends on what criteria used or individual opinion or preference .

    I am an old timer and look at the great Winters of yore; long, cold and snowy. A great Winter nowadays could be regarded as a 2013-14 or 2015 type. 

[TellicoWx]

If would have seen this MJO forecast on Jan 7...would have cliff dived...yes or no

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[jaxjagman]

13 minutes ago, Daniel Boone said:

Not meaning to rain on anybody's parade with the previous post as I guess a " great Winter" depends on what criteria used or individual opinion or preference .

    I am an old timer and look at the great Winters of yore; long, cold and snowy. A great Winter nowadays could be regarded as a 2013-14 or 2015 type. 

2013-14 came in mind when Webber mentioned the TNH,we had the dome over us..lol..so we were safe but that was quite a bit of ice that year

[Carvers Gap]

It is official.  The GEFS has caved 100% to the Euro in the LR.  I will be interested to see where the Euro Weeklies go with the pattern tonight, not so much after week four, but where it would take the pattern week 3 and 4.    They were workable on Monday.  What the "cave" by the GEFS means?...the EPS is likely hitting form as it has been locked onto this pattern for a couple of weeks. 

Also, when I talk great winters...I mean great snowstorms.  Many of those are found between mid-Jan to mid-Feb.

I think at this point, there is nothing we can do.  We will just try to sort out when/if this pattern is going to change before winter is over.  Hoping for a flip.  That is not very scientific, but is about all we have at this point.

[tnweathernut]

Good posts the last couple of days from everyone.  @Holston_River_Rambler, man, you have been putting in some work and @Carvers Gap bringing the heat, literally.  lol

My non-scientific analysis is below.

“It’s always darkest before the dawn”

”Just because you hit rock bottom, doesn’t mean you have to stay there”

its all I got ........other than it’s still only Dec 19th.    Plenty of time left to realize a good winter.  Wall to wall cold isn’t a staple of winters in the mid-south and false starts are what we seem to do best.  
 

My glass is still half full, even though it does look like someone took an extra sip or two from it the last 24-48 hours.  
 

Hang in there winter lovers, we will flip the script before too much longer.....

 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

One thing that is interesting (and probably not good) that all ensembles are showing is the TPV almost exactly over the pole. Now, it is a smoothed ensemble mean, but not sure I can remember seeing that. Isn't it usually at least on one part of the N. Hemisphere or another? 

The above also seems to me to be the reason for the GEFS flop. It had been getting squeezed down toward Hudson's bay by Scandinavian ridging. That has totally evaporated in the GEFS, and I don't think the EPS ever had it. Looks like the evolution that is favored now is for the ridging at H5 above the bowling bowl we get to enjoy this weekend, is going into eastern Canada and never really leaves, even finally linking up with some Atlantic ridging and keeping the TPV at the pole.

May have to root for a very +NAO for a time to break that ridge down to at least have the TPV a chance to come further south.

That low over NE Asia really seems to want to help us with an EPO, but just can't with the main TPV right there. 

If this happens as the EPS suggests, it may be time to break the arks back out after last Feb. Doesn't look quite as bad as last Feb, but the jet is stuck nearby, extending into the Pacific, and it's January, so at least cooler air will be nearby too to create fronts. 

Lift from the jet and WCB thumps of moisture from 850mb jets = 

At least the EPS has a sense of humor about it, but its hard to tell with those dead soulless eyes:

 

 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

6 minutes ago, tnweathernut said:

Plenty of time left to realize a good winter.  Wall to wall cold isn’t a staple of winters in the mid-south and false starts are what we seem to do best.  

Agree 100%

Just because NWP looks bad now, it may not in a few days. As Jeff has said "NWP can and does flip on a dime." 

[Carvers Gap]

15 minutes ago, tnweathernut said:

Good posts the last couple of days from everyone.  @Holston_River_Rambler, man, you have been putting in some work and @Carvers Gap bringing the heat, literally.  lol

My non-scientific analysis is below.

“It’s always darkest before the dawn”

”Just because you hit rock bottom, doesn’t mean you have to stay there”

its all I got ........other than it’s still only Dec 19th.    Plenty of time left to realize a good winter.  Wall to wall cold isn’t a staple of winters in the mid-south and false starts are what we seem to do best.  
 

My glass is still half full, even though it does look like someone took an extra sip or two from it the last 24-48 hours.  
 

Hang in there winter lovers, we will flip the script before too much longer.....

 

Man, I hate brining the heat...LOL.  Yes, agree we likely flip cold at some point, and I wouldn't be surprised to see a substantial flip.  Not seeing the flip yet...but 14-15 saw a super warm December I think that eventually flipped cold.  The Indian Ocean deal is probably my biggest concern regarding any flip, but Nino climatology supports a cold second half of winter.  That said, last winter's scars make me less confident.  LOL.  I feel like we looked for a flip that never came.  I do think this winter will be different.  While repeating weather patterns are not an uncommon phenomena...they do end.   And I shouldn't be surprised at the warm December after mentioning it months ago...just not any fun talking about it.  Hopefully, the rest of that forecast from June will come to pass with a cold second half of winter.  Again, I am actually not that discouraged with the past two runs of the EPS.  

[Holston_River_Rambler]

In the short term, this may be one of the best tracks for a nice storm for us in years, but alas, too warm:

Good weekend for a fire now that the birds are out of my chimney, lol. 

Kuddos to a met in the SE forum, ILMRoss I think? Even as all the models were sending it out to sea, they warned that convective feedback was probably causing that and to wait until mesoscale range. 

But check out what the NAM is doing in central AL and MS at 850 mb:

now 700mb:

 

now 925 mb:

I think there may be a few more surprises with this track as we get closer. Might amount to nothing more than a 37 degree rain vs a 40 degree rain, but I think this one will be fun to watch regardless. If we could get that low to track just right and come a bit further north, maybe some not so much higher elevations (maybe 2500' plus) in upper east TN, SW VA, and W NC might have some fun.

 

[TellicoWx]

If would have seen this MJO forecast on Jan 7...would have cliff dived...yes or no

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That was the MJO forecast on Jan 7, 2015 to Jan 28, 2015. All models (and reality) torched that Jan. I remember the cliff diving was very high...then Feb happened. The pattern flipped Feb 7. Nov 2014 also featured a cold spell similar to this year. Feb 2015 delivered the cold and snow east of the MS. Torches like 2018 feature a PNA that goes severely negative in Jan (-500 or lower), and so far that's not appearing in the LR modeling. Point is it's still Mid Dec and no reason or sign to even form a line to the cliff..yet.

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[TellicoWx]

What the GEFS does to the EPO past truncation is both sad and hilarious at the same time...a 12 point spread on a 16 day forecast. May as well throw blind darts at a spinning dart board lol.

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[Carvers Gap]

2 hours ago, TellicoWx said:

That was the MJO forecast on Jan 7, 2015 to Jan 28, 2015. All models (and reality) torched that Jan. I remember the cliff diving was very high...then Feb happened. The pattern flipped Feb 7. Nov 2014 also featured a cold spell similar to this year. Feb 2015 delivered the cold and snow east of the MS. Torches like 2018 feature a PNA that goes severely negative in Jan (-500 or lower), and so far that's not appearing in the LR modeling. Point is it's still Mid Dec and no reason or sign to even form a line to the cliff..yet.

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Good post.  I think that year is an excellent analog...a lot of similarities in both timing and how the actual pattern evolved.  The QBO should be working for us very soon as well.  I would not be surprised in the least to see a similar evolution with this year's pattern.  I think if/when the pattern flips...it will be a pretty stunning reversal.  Last year, obviously that did not happen but the atmosphere was dealing with a La Nina hangover.  I said it last winter and I will say it now...this is exactly why I don't like El Nino winters.  Just takes forever until we actually get to prime months.  Then, if things don't work out...kick in the pants for sure.  Pretty much during El Nino winters, we head into the bottom of the ninth down 3 with the bases loaded w/ the heart of our line-up on deck.  No guarantee of a win, but you have had to sit through the entire game just to get to the best part - and it still might not work out.

 

[Carvers Gap]

I do think we get a transient shot of cold air during the second week of January...that will be a window to watch as the STJ has not relaxed a bit.  There are sort of two camps regarding good snow patterns....

1.  Those who want plenty of cold air in repetitive shots...

2.  Those who want an active precip pattern...

I don't think the first choice is going to be an option for some time.  But that second choice is probably going to be in place for some time.  Any cold shot from here on out probably is going to have winter tracking with it.  Those cold shots are likely very transient.  However, it won't take much cold with an active STJ for things to get interesting.  IMHO, we could see some snow chances in January despite AN temps.  Just need one or two cold shots, even if just 3-4 days at a time.  

I think February will be a good month.  Tellico has a good analog to support that.  And the current pattern should have run its course by then provide we don't get some SSW that dumps into the West like last year.  

You all keep the fires burning for the next couple of days...going to be helping with loading the band's equipment for the Rose Bowl Parade.  Shipping 300+ instruments and all of their gear cross country is like moving a house!

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Just noticed the GFS has been doing a weirdly regular flip flop, in 4/4 time Carvers, lol.

I know, I know, its the GFS at long range, but interesting to see such a regular flip-flop in the same region every 6 hours. I know it shows different looks every time, but sometimes they can be wildly different. This is kind of a more regular flop. Seeing that here at 12z reminded me of a Masiello tweet:

A lot depends on exactly where that TPV goes. But they're both cut offs, a cyclone and an anti-cyclone so there could be some more variability even on the EPS in the mid range. 

Looking at the 12z GFS (Sadly some skippage on this loop since Tropical Tidbits doesn't have all the frames):

On the first 4 frames I've highlighted the cyclone and anticyclone Masiello is stalking about (if there are some people lurking/new) who are wondering what I'm talking about. It's like a pinball machine up there. If that main vorticity ends up being pushed somehow back to our side of the globe, the pattern looks a lot better. If not, not so much. 

Sometimes you see models explained like the Price is Right Plinko. This is like that, but with pin ball paddles added:

[Carvers Gap]

I don't see anything on the 12z GEFS run that inclines me to think any cold outbreaks are headed our way for quite some time.  My week two cool-off is severely in doubt.  Warm run.

edit:  Not even one cold front makes this way after hour 54.

[Holston_River_Rambler]

EPS now looking a lot well at least better than the GEFS better in the +240 hour range. 

[Carvers Gap]

Euro Weeklies looked good...entire run.  Big grain of salt... Looks like the pattern is cold into the northern Rockies that kicks eastward.  

[Carvers Gap]

The Weeklies feature a fairly significant break in continuity and one that actually connects well to the afternoon Euro run(Weeklies are derived from the morning run).  Last year, the Weeklies rarely matched what was actually on the EPS.  These match.  Let's see if this break in continuity actually holds.  Been far too many false starts this winter for me to buy in just yet...but that pattern on the 12z EPS and the Weeklies is probably better than just a "good pattern."  Would like to be able to say, "That is the break we have been looking for...."  Not ready to say that yet, but that those two model runs have "winter" written all over them.  Indeed, they look like....November.

Now, if we can just get the atmospheric river event out of the way before the Rose Bowl Parade is held!

[John1122]

EPS is still looking like we end the warmth around New Years and there's beginning to be some EPS ens support for something wintry in the 12-31 to 1-3 timeframe.

[Carvers Gap]

Very good trends on overnight modeling...As John noted, the EPS has cold in here by the New Year.  The ridge begins to erode on December 28 around hour 204 with a full latitude trough in place by 300+.  Let's see if the full latitude trough idea is just the ensemble trying to figure out which area of NA to put the trough - meaning some members may be west and some east, thus creating the false appearance of a full latitude trough.  That could mean a continuation of the trough out West, trough east , or the rare feature which is the full latitude trough.  Light years better than 48 hours ago.  It is not so much that the model has flipped.  It has not.  It is simply that we are are now far enough along to see the end of the pattern.  It also might be a hair quicker.  The Weeklies give me greater confidence that we indeed have a shot at getting out of this.  A word of caution, sometimes models will hurry a pattern and we don't know if this is just a relaxation of the current warmish pattern.  That said, the change would be very representative of several Nino analogs including the 14-15 analog that someone mentioned in the thread(Tellico or Holston or Boone?).    Additionally, we need to keep an eye on the MJO as it was not favorable yesterday.  Would be pretty rare to get a cold snap with it stalled in phase 6 or 7...  Also, unless I am reading this incorrectly, looks like the QBO is almost(edit...evidently I can't read a graph) negative at 30. It is also common for 30 to flip prior to 50.  Let's get that MJO headed in the right direction so we don't get a head fake with this look.  Will look at it later.

Note:  That said, this site lists the QBO as negative(easterly).  Looks to me like that is positive at 30.  Any ideas on why that is?  I mean that is awesome if it is already negative, but that is now how I read it at 30.

https://acd-ext.gsfc.nasa.gov/Data_services/met/qbo/qbo.html

 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

15 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

Looks to me like that is positive at 30.  Any ideas on why that is?

Maybe it counts anything right of the y axis as east, as if it was a compass. I would read it the same way you would, but honestly not sure.

[TellicoWx]

Very good trends on overnight modeling...As John noted, the EPS has cold in here by the New Year.  The ridge begins to erode on December 28 around hour 204 with a full latitude trough in place by 300+.  Let's see if the full latitude trough idea is just the ensemble trying to figure out which area of NA to put the trough - meaning some members may be west and some east, thus creating the false appearance of a full latitude trough.  That could mean a continuation of the trough out West, trough east , or the rare feature which is the full latitude trough.  Light years better than 48 hours ago.  It is not so much that the model has flipped.  It has not.  It is simply that we are are now far enough along to see the end of the pattern.  It also might be a hair quicker.  The Weeklies give me greater confidence that we indeed have a shot at getting out of this.  A word of caution, sometimes models will hurry a pattern and we don't know if this is just a relaxation of the current warmish pattern.  That said, the change would be very representative of several Nino analogs including the 14-15 analog that someone mentioned in the thread(Tellico or Holston or Boone?).    Additionally, we need to keep an eye on the MJO as it was not favorable yesterday.  Would be pretty rare to get a cold snap with it stalled in phase 6 or 7...  Also, unless I am reading this incorrectly, looks like the QBO is almost(edit...evidently I can't read a graph) negative at 30. It is also common for 30 to flip prior to 50.  Let's get that MJO headed in the right direction so we don't get a head fake with this look.  Will look at it later.

Note:  That said, this site lists the QBO as negative(easterly).  Looks to me like that is positive at 30.  Any ideas on why that is?  I mean that is awesome if it is already negative, but that is now how I read it at 30.

https://acd-ext.gsfc.nasa.gov/Data_services/met/qbo/qbo.html

 

That is QBOEM...the Easterly winds have taken over at the mid latitudes, while the westerlies have weakened to near zero. As the stronger easterlies propagate downwards, QBOEL when the easterly wind is strongest in lower levels, the westerly wind will flip at top and start increasing (as the lower easterlies begin weakening (QBOWM). The cycle of the QBO. QBOEM has research data supporting the QBO have a greater influence in helping the MJO increase convection over the MC.

 

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