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BuffaloWeather

Upstate/Eastern New York

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12 hours ago, mattny88 said:

hey there syrmax..looking into relocating in phoenix...is the phoenix area more comparable to fulton or clay (route 31 corridor) when it comes to lake effect snowfall.. i know its sandwiched right in between the two as the transient town from which route 481 connects them i just didnt know what your experience has been like living in clay vs phoenix and in relation to fulton....didnt know if that wnw lake band that desposits over fulton usually extend down into phoenix most of the time during the 2-3 ft lake storms that fulton receives from time to time??

That's an interesting call, as it is with a lot of LES.  I'd say northern Phoenix probably gets the better LES when a band is hitting Fulton.  Lots of variables with any given event though.  The PHX school district sticks pretty far north from the town itself, which is why some snow days happen for school when conditions don't seem all that bad closer to the river.  From what I recall (and Wolfie is probably more expert than i am), when Fulton gets hammered, it doesn't necessarily mean Phoenix will, though north of the town center might.  As a thumb rule, mile for mile north of the river does best over the course of a winter.  As you get further south from me, less so, though Liverpool, B'ville etc still get their fare share of LES events.  A lot of the LES in my vicinity tends to be somewhat transient.  We don't usually get the 12+ hour significant dumps as winds tend to veer and are less stable when pointed our way.  So we get a lot of 3-8" events that last and hour to maybe 4 hours, which are generally manageable to get around in as snow removal around here is really good.

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25 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

Estimated rain totals. 

TYX_0.png

Still pounding away.

TYX_loop (2).gif

It hasn't been nearly as robust here in WNY, specifically the Niagara Frontier, but we have had light to occasionally moderate lake effect rain from Lake Ontario owning to your earlier comment that if this was a true noreaster this could've been a true monster.

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Warmer-than-average temperatures are forecast for much of the U.S. this winter according to NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center. Although below-average temperatures are not favored, cold weather is anticipated and some areas could still experience a colder-than-average winter. Wetter-than-average weather is most likely across the Northern Tier of the U.S. during winter, which extends from December through February.

While the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) climate pattern often influences the winter, neutral conditions are in place this year and expected to persist into the spring. In the absence of El Nino or La Nina, long-term trends become a key predictor for the outlook, while other climate patterns, such as the Madden-Julian Oscillation and Arctic Oscillation (AO), will likely play a larger role in determining winter weather. For example, the AO influences the number of arctic air masses that intrude into the U.S., but its predictability is limited to a couple weeks.

“Without either El Nino or La Nina conditions, short-term climate patterns like the Arctic Oscillation will drive winter weather and could result in large swings in temperature and precipitation,” said Mike Halpert, deputy director of NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center. 

This spring saw significant and historic flooding across the central U.S. that impacted nearly 17 million people. However, during the summer and early fall, drought rapidly developed across much of the South, with drought conditions now present across approximately 20% of the country.

 

The 2019-20 U.S. Winter Outlook | December through February

Temperature

  • The greatest likelihood for warmer-than-normal conditions are in Alaska and Hawaii, with more modest probabilities for above-average temperatures spanning large parts of the remaining lower 48 from the West across the South and up the eastern seaboard.

  • The Northern Plains, Upper Mississippi Valley, and the western Great Lakes have equal chances for below-, near- or above-average temperatures. 

  • No part of the U.S. is favored to have below-average temperatures this winter. 

IMAGE - for 101719 - U.S. map - Temperatures likely - Winter Outlook 2019 - Climate.gov - Landscape NATIVE inset.png

Precipitation

  • Wetter-than-average conditions are most likely in Alaska and Hawaii this winter, along with portions of the Northern Plains, Upper Mississippi Valley, the Great Lakes and parts of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast.

  • Drier-than-average conditions are most likely for Louisiana, parts of Texas, Mississippi, Arkansas and Oklahoma as well areas of northern and central California.

  • The remainder of the U.S. falls into the category of equal chances for below-, near-, or above-average precipitation.

 

IMAGE - for 101719 - U.S. MAP - Precipitation likely - Winter Outlook 2019 - Climate.gov - Landscape NATIVE.png

https://www.noaa.gov/media-release/winter-outlook-warmer-than-average-for-many-wetter-in-north

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22 minutes ago, Luke_Mages said:

Hopefully not the result of political influence...

I dont believe that's it, however I do believe NOAA's biggest fault lies in what they do not take into consideration...the MJO, Siberian snow cover, PDO, QBO, and most importantly current trends in the indices...i think that by just using ENSO, and the long range models such as the CFS and others they pigeon hole themselves...seriously look at the weather channels outlook...it looks just like you believe it would based on other factors...has the West warm and the northern tier from the Dakota's to Maine below normal. It's exactly what you'd expect from what the indicators are right now.

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Personally don't really care to see "blue" lol

We live in upstate NY, no need for negative anomalies..

The forecast is slightly warmer than"equal chances", which is fine by me..

Looks like they may expect a lot of Northern stream disturbances/clippers with the precipitation outlook..

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12 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

There have been some torch years, but yeah, they don’t like to predict cold lol

 

NOAA is to focused as I stated yesterday on ENSO alone. The other variables might as well be voodoo or black magic. 

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End of the month is definitely trending quite cold with a decent elevation based lake response (snow) starting to show up on the GFS. Still way out but somewhat unusual to see in October even for fantasy land. 

Better get your snow tires on buffaloweather, we might be sending you on some chases sooner than normal!

6FD157F1-2615-4FA0-839C-37C924EE10D6.thumb.jpeg.fc68b76f83a0785e1d25da8c1249cb77.jpeg

 

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3 hours ago, DeltaT13 said:

End of the month is definitely trending quite cold with a decent elevation based lake response (snow) starting to show up on the GFS. Still way out but somewhat unusual to see in October even for fantasy land. 

Better get your snow tires on buffaloweather, we might be sending you on some chases sooner than normal!

6FD157F1-2615-4FA0-839C-37C924EE10D6.thumb.jpeg.fc68b76f83a0785e1d25da8c1249cb77.jpeg

 

12z totally flipped the script which lines up much better with the last several runs of the Euro showing well above average heights with a Eastern US ridge setting up towards months end. May need to break out the shorts towards Halloween if the Euro is correct. Probably some nice mid/upper 60s if it pans out. Hope it’s wrong but did not like seeing the GFS totally abandon ship and cave to the consistent Euro. 

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