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AMZ8990

Tennessee Valley 2019 Fall Speculation/Forecasting

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1 hour ago, PowellVolz said:

 

Sevier Co this afternoon went with a County wide no burning except for grills.

 

Good info.  While not as dry as the fires that burned Gatlinburg(as that resulted from a summer long drought), it pretty alarming how dry things are right now and after a very wet spring.  I guess the heat and low humidity is the culprit.  WJHL I think had passed along the danger of brush fires.  These really dry falls are bad business because there is so much dry fuel in the forest.  The trees are also parched.  I think John was saying that the northern Plateau is in better shape.  Seems like it is the valley floor eastward to the Smokies.   The only time my yard has looked worse was during that fall a few years back.

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Good info.  While not as dry as the fires that burned Gatlinburg(as that resulted from a summer long drought), it pretty alarming how dry things are right now and after a very wet spring.  I guess the heat and low humidity is the culprit.  WJHL I think had passed along the danger of brush fires.  These really dry falls are bad business because there is so much dry fuel in the forest.  The trees are also parched.  I think John was saying that the northern Plateau is in better shape.  Seems like it is the valley floor eastward to the Smokies.   The only time my yard has looked worse was during that fall a few years back.


How about this....

948e4eb1e0c0f0b481f18692762469cc.jpg


.
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11 minutes ago, PowellVolz said:

 


How about this....

948e4eb1e0c0f0b481f18692762469cc.jpg


.

 

I wonder if that is driven by the tropics(GOM origin)?  A couple of recent runs of the GFS have also been trying to leave a cutoff over the nation's midsection as well which slowly meanders eastward.  The last week of September is a slight relaxation of the SER pattern.  At the end of the last pattern relaxation in August, Dorian went through the Bahamas.  So maybe, something is getting pulled in there.  Another good find, Powell.  Hope we see some precip from it.  Definitely need it.

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I don't understand how Hurricanes keep recurving but temps stay sky high and the weather stays dry. It's odd that the troughs that turn them are hot/dry weather producers.

We did have some rain and storms a few days ago. But it has been fairly dry and Sept may actually be our first month of the year without AN precip. 

Shouldn't be significant fire danger here though, no brown grass or anything like that here. 

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I don't understand how Hurricanes keep recurving but temps stay sky high and the weather stays dry. It's odd that the troughs that turn them are hot/dry weather producers.
We did have some rain and storms a few days ago. But it has been fairly dry and Sept may actually be our first month of the year without AN precip. 
Shouldn't be significant fire danger here though, no brown grass or anything like that here. 


My lawn that isn’t in the shade is toast. It’s past being dormant now. You can drag your feet across it and it flakes up.


.

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17 hours ago, Carvers Gap said:

In all seriousness, if we don't get some rain there could be serious fire issues in the eastern valley....low humidity, not a ton of precip recently, and record warm temps.

I should have attended more fire wx talks at NWAS instead of tornado porn. We really don't need that action again.

13 hours ago, John1122 said:

I don't understand how Hurricanes keep recurving but temps stay sky high and the weather stays dry. It's odd that the troughs that turn them are hot/dry weather producers.

Shouldn't be significant fire danger here though, no brown grass or anything like that here. 

Yeah we're good on sig fire danger attm. However if the pattern goes through October we'll be in more drought.

Hurricanes are being caught by Great Lakes New England troughs barely within the 15 degrees (lat/lon) threshold we use to forecast recruve. However the said 'cane leaves behind its ridge upstairs over the South. Trough West ain't helping either. Just a brutal whip!

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I linked the Wildlands fire danger map below - there are several variations of threats and data on the left menu bar.  Plenty to look at and interesting for sure.  I am not aware of any significant fires at the moment.  We have had just enough rainfall to keep the worst conditions at bay.  What we don't want are high winds to go with the high temps...dries things out in a hurry.  Though we are not out West and our fire season does not really have a ton of similarities to theirs...sometimes wet springs can accentuate the following fire season or two due to more growth(fuel) than average.  I agree with Jeff that the danger is not there at the moment, but the precip forecast is bleak.  Total accumulate precip for the 16day noon run of the GFS is .2-.3 for most of NE TN with a few spots modeled to get .3-.4.  Keep in mind that IMBY we have already gone twenty days with no appreciable rainfall(might have had one day with sprinkles that barely did more than stir the dust).  If the GFS is right(LOL...how many times have we said that in our lifetimes), that would be almost a month straight with no rainfall.  The CMC through 240 is about the same with just a few hundredths forecast for NE TN.  Thank goodness for replenished aquifers or this would be pretty bad.   Low humidity with record or near record temps....

https://www.wfas.net/index.php/fire-danger-rating-fire-potential--danger-32/north-america-fire-danger-map/92-sfwpinterface

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12z operationals and ensembles pretty much bone dry for NE TN with the exception of maybe getting total of a .1".  I have not received rain for 21 days.  If we go 16 more, that is going to get pretty sketchy.  The likelihood of me having 0.00" of precip for September is a possibility....have to think we at least get something.  The heat ridge on the EPS is brutal to the point it is not even worth talking about.  The operational does have some very brief cool downs followed by more heat.  Nothing like dry frontal passages.  

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26 minutes ago, John1122 said:

18z GFS was much wetter valley wide that run. 2-4 inches over the next 16 days.  

That was an interesting run.  Huge winter storm over the lee of the northern Rockies mid-run.  Three to four feet in the Crazies and Beartooths of southwest MT. Would be nice to see that feature.  It has hinted at early northern Rockies snowstorms during past runs intermittently.  That would at least shake-up the pattern.    

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Kudos to the SE forum folks finding this.  The CPC updated their maps today.  Her are the OND, DJF, and JFM temp maps.  My takeaways are:

1.  This warm fall set-up is going to take some time to break down...but there is hope.  Looking like a gradual step down from these wicked hot temps.

2.  The persistent SER is reasonably absent from those outlooks.  Looks like they favor a western ridge and central/Midwest trough setup developing with poor source regions fro cold.  I do really like the JFM outlook.  It is also good to keep in mind that they rarely forecast large areas of cold at LR.  It is also of note that they do forecast colder areas at 30 day ranges...and those are absent which jives with recent Euro Weeklies and Seasonal model runs.  I have a tendency not to look at temps, but to try to look at where they think the ridge/trough placement will be which is usually indicated by these types of maps.  Wherever the trough sets up is where the cold will likely setup...again the severity of which we don't know due to source region temps being fickle to predict at this range.

3.  Unless I missed something flipping through the maps quickly, precip is normal in our subform area w AN along the northern tier of the US.

4.  They have a couple of great writeups.  Here is the 30 day discussion link: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/fxus07.html .  Here is the 90 day long lead:  https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/fxus05.html.  Those discussions connect really well to discussions that we have had in multiple threads among multiple posters.

963293150_ScreenShot2019-09-19at11_48_41AM.png.b78574adb5b4db54c544e69eac472350.png

895446575_ScreenShot2019-09-19at11_49_09AM.png.aa642208bee9fb84af3dcdb6d3d92337.png

2060405759_ScreenShot2019-09-19at11_49_55AM.png.1c8a431b2ba9cdfd4e7ec06904e065e3.png

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It does look like another near-record warm, air mass will approach our forum area beginning on Saturday.  The record high at TRI on Sunday is 90 and that is our forecast high.  The record highs for the few days after that look like they are just out of reach, but there are a few later in the month that are reachable.  Wouldn't surprise me to see us set another record or two before this next air mass leaves us.  Meanwhile, enjoy today...about perfect compared to recent weeks.  

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Unfortunate we are headed into one of the driest months of the year,Oct., if we don't get much rains upcoming the rest of this month Nashville could have the driest Sept on record..The MJO signal is really strong looking into phase 1,this seemingly this time of year smells some sort of ridge into early Oct but we'll see beyond that.Everytime the PNA in the long range shows some relief and goes positive it abruptly switches out and goes negative once again which it what we see today.The drought monitor today showed a big spike in the Valley,more than i thought it might show.Totally difference from last year to this year,if i recall right into the 3rd week of Sept of last year we was talking about flooding,now drought this year

Current Map   United States Drought Monitor.png

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Following up on Jax's post...the Weeklies are just brutal in regards to temps and precip.  The worst warm temp anomalies for the Lower 48 are over the TN Valley. The worst temp anomalies are over western North Carolina where the usual brown color scheme for the worst precip departures is now actually shades of red.  Maybe there have a slow breakdown of the pattern.  However, as Jaxnoted, almost every time this pattern is modeled to break down...it doesn't verify.  Admittedly, the Euro Weeklies are prone to follow the forecast they are derived from, and almost assuredly, they will actually miss the eventual pattern change.  But ya'll, this temp pattern(minus some noted breaks...the potential drought is a new feature) has been absolutely locked into place since the second week of December!  My rule of thumb is that a pattern lasts around 4-6 weeks.  Been a very long time since I have seen a temp pattern survive this long.  That monster SER has been locked into place and maybe by November it shows some weakness.  That is the warmest set of Weeklies I think that I have ever seen.   Hopefully, the will be as wrong as they were last winter.  But we know the rule...warm always verifies.  That will be my only Weeklies updated until the pattern shows some changes....nobody want to hear my play by play of increasingly warm temps.  

 

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Don't have to go back very far to find the record dry September in the area. In 2014 Knox had .19 inches of rain, BNA had .21 inches. Memphis had 4.75 inches for the month but 4.45 of that fell in one day, .27 another and the other 28 days of the month were mostly rain free.  Temps were around 3 degrees AN for the month. So not as hot as this month has been but still warm. October was much wetter at about 2x the average rainfall, with temps near or below normal across the area.  November was cold and dry that year with about 50 percent of normal precip.

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3 minutes ago, John1122 said:

Don't have to go back very far to find the record dry September in the area. In 2014 Knox had .19 inches of rain, BNA had .21 inches. Memphis had 4.75 inches for the month but 4.45 of that fell in one day, .27 another and the other 28 days of the month were mostly rain free.  Temps were around 3 degrees AN for the month. So not as hot as this month has been but still warm. October was much wetter at about 2x the average rainfall, with temps near or below normal across the area.  November was cold and dry that year with about 50 percent of normal precip.

Interesting.  I have seen the 14-15 analog kicked around some...maybe by JB or D'Aleo.  I am too lazy to look, but was that a La Nina year?  I know Jax mentioned this in the main board ENSO thread(and I agree) this heat and flip to almost no precip is almost like La Nina.

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2 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

Interesting.  I have seen the 14-15 analog kicked around some...maybe by JB or D'Aleo.  I am too lazy to look, but was that a La Nina year?  I know Jax mentioned this in the main board ENSO thread(and I agree) this heat and flip to almost no precip is almost like La Nina.

14-15 was a weak El Nino but is noted for not having the precip patterns of a typical El Nino.

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Just now, John1122 said:

14-15 was a weak El Nino but is noted for not having the precip patterns of a typical El Nino.

Interesting.  Was that the year that NE TN had a ton of snow...but the Plateau kept missing out?  Seems like during one of those winters of that timeframe it snowed like crazy here...and might have been BN for you all.  Hope that does not happen this year BTW...just trying to place that winter.

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38 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

Interesting.  Was that the year that NE TN had a ton of snow...but the Plateau kept missing out?  Seems like during one of those winters of that timeframe it snowed like crazy here...and might have been BN for you all.  Hope that does not happen this year BTW...just trying to place that winter.

No, it was the winter where the last two weeks of February and the first week of March was pretty wintry for the entire forum for the most part. It was capped off by the blizzard in West Tennessee in early March. It was brutally cold every where once that February arctic express got rolling.  I had 15 inches of snow, 4 inches of sleet and and two ice storms in a 20 day stretch. It snowed on top of snow 5 times. Which isn't common for the area most years.

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PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
400 AM CDT THU SEP 19 2019

...NASHVILLE AND CROSSVILLE NEARING RECORDS FOR MOST 90 DEGREE 
DAYS IN A YEAR AND DRIEST SEPTEMBER...

UNUSUALLY HOT AND DRY WEATHER HAS CONTINUED ACROSS MIDDLE 
TENNESSEE FOR SEVERAL WEEKS THANKS TO A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL 
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. THIS HAS ALLOWED THE NUMBER OF DAYS WITH 
TEMPERATURES REACHING 90 DEGREES OR HIGHER IN A YEAR TO APPROACH 
NEAR-RECORD LEVELS. IN ADDITION, THE LACK OF RAINFALL SO FAR THIS
MONTH HAS NOW MADE THIS SEPTEMBER ONE OF THE DRIEST ON RECORD IN 
MIDDLE TENNESSEE.

TOP 5 YEARS WITH MOST 90 DEGREE DAYS IN NASHVILLE

RANK     # OF DAYS     YEAR
1         96 DAYS      1954
2         87 DAYS      2019*
3         87 DAYS      2016
4         86 DAYS      2018
5         82 DAYS      2010

* AS OF WEDNESDAY SEPTEMBER 18

TOP 5 YEARS WITH MOST 90 DEGREE DAYS IN CROSSVILLE

RANK     # OF DAYS     YEAR
1         45 DAYS      1954
2         40 DAYS      1993
3         34 DAYS      1980
4         26 DAYS      1988
5         24 DAYS      1990
31         5 DAYS      2019*

* AS OF WEDNESDAY SEPTEMBER 18

TOP 5 DRIEST SEPTEMBERS IN NASHVILLE

RANK   TOTAL RAINFALL  YEAR     
1         0.01 IN      2019*
2         0.13 IN      1903
3         0.19 IN      1897
4         0.21 IN      2014
5         0.28 IN      1956

* AS OF WEDNESDAY SEPTEMBER 18

TOP 5 DRIEST SEPTEMBERS IN CROSSVILLE

RANK   TOTAL RAINFALL  YEAR     
1         0.34 IN      2019*
2         0.66 IN      1984
3         0.83 IN      2016
4         0.89 IN      1961
5         1.10 IN      1999

* AS OF WEDNESDAY SEPTEMBER 18

CLIMATE RECORDS FOR NASHVILLE BEGAN IN 1871.
CLIMATE RECORDS FOR CROSSVILLE BEGAN IN 1954.

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Looking at some of the stats up top for the warmest year with 90+ temps in Nashville,only last year,2018 year wasn't an actual LaNina year into Winter time,but the ENSO was much warmer east of the IDL compared to this year.Last year we was getting rid of a drought into this month,this year we are gaining.In the mean time SUB-X shows some relief in temps,believe tho this is more potential tropical genesis into the GOM this certainly is possible with the MJO as strong as it is being shown  and with the passing of a CCKW

SubX Forecasts.png

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In the mean time once again the Euro has been to cool,not horrid tho with dp's in the low 50's,be interesting tho if we break the record back into 1954,89 today

Lat: 36.12°NLon: 86.69°WElev: 597ft.
sct.png

Partly Cloudy

91°F

33°C

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‘Smoke-nado’ Spawned by Kentucky Fire
https://www.weather.com/news/trending/video/smoke-nado-swirls-in-southern-kentucky-fire?pl=pl-the-latest
From The Weather Channel iPhone App

 

 

 

 

James Spann
Yesterday Alabama had 19 wildfires statewide, bringing the total to 156 in the last 7 days and 313 in the last 30 days.

We can expect more fire starts, hotter, faster fires,  and erratic fire behavior in the dry air over Alabama. It is also harder to get containment lines to hold the fire when humidity is low. Be very careful if you have to do any outdoor burning!

 

These dry conditions are setting the southeast up for lots of dangerous times if it persists.  I live next to woods.

 

 

 

 

 

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On 9/21/2019 at 2:00 PM, jaxjagman said:

Looking at some of the stats up top for the warmest year with 90+ temps in Nashville,only last year,2018 year wasn't an actual LaNina year into Winter time,but the ENSO was much warmer east of the IDL compared to this year.Last year we was getting rid of a drought into this month,this year we are gaining.In the mean time SUB-X shows some relief in temps,believe tho this is more potential tropical genesis into the GOM this certainly is possible with the MJO as strong as it is being shown  and with the passing of a CCKW

SubX Forecasts.png

subx_20190923_47424.png

So much for a cool down,looks like the same old story

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Warning, intense cynicism is likely...

NOAA winter outlook take-aways. Great for the Mid South again. Enjoy your snow. SER probably hangs on east Tenn Valley. Book another crap winter.

I need a trip to the Plains this weekend through Monday.

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Really good video by DT about the current tropical situation, the current wx pattern which is producing much AN temps over the eastern half of the United States, and maybe where the pattern goes.  He also delves into the pattern in the SST in eastern Pacific around Alaska.  He does note that the MJO "should move into phase2 by mid October and then into phase three which should effectively end the much AN temps.  Hope that is correct, because I have seen a few models stall the MJO in phase 1 almost indefinitely.   Anyway, worth a look...super focused on much of what has already been mentioned in this thread.  

 

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12 hours ago, Carvers Gap said:

Really good video by DT about the current tropical situation, the current wx pattern which is producing much AN temps over the eastern half of the United States, and maybe where the pattern goes.  He also delves into the pattern in the SST in eastern Pacific around Alaska.  He does note that the MJO "should move into phase2 by mid October and then into phase three which should effectively end the much AN temps.  Hope that is correct, because I have seen a few models stall the MJO in phase 1 almost indefinitely.   Anyway, worth a look...super focused on much of what has already been mentioned in this thread.  

 

I'd be careful using the CFS forecast of the MJO.What it seems to be seeing is the westerly wind burst ongoing which looks like it will help generate a new Kelvin Wave possibly upcoming into the Eastern Pacific

Tropical Monitoring    North Carolina Institute for Climate Studies.png

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Strangely enough I'm a little more optimistic about some sort of pattern change after yesterday. The first fully cloudy day in a while for my area, with at least a minuscule amount of rain at the end of it. 

Maybe these systems are just digging a little more as the seasons change but despite how bad the ensembles have looked and continue to look, yesterday was a real change even if only a small one. 

In terms of the long range, I feel like the past couple of weeks were a lot like last winter in that the long range kept looking like a flip, but the long awaited Pacific pattern set up just a little too far west to get a trough here. Now looks like another of these little fronts swinging through later in the week. EPS and GEFS are at least having some members change things up after next week, since they show the ridge shifting west, but at 180+ hours could also just be random dispersion of so many members. 

I will say western Canada looks like it will get some snow from the big trough digging out that way. And hey maybe the EPS MSLP analysis is on to something developing a high up that way. Not sure if it is too early in the season to look at something like that, but even a little break would be nice:

giphy.gif

 

giphy.gif

 

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10 hours ago, jaxjagman said:

I'd be careful using the CFS forecast of the MJO.What it seems to be seeing is the westerly wind burst ongoing which looks like it will help generate a new Kelvin Wave possibly upcoming into the Eastern Pacific

Tropical Monitoring    North Carolina Institute for Climate Studies.png

Yeah, anything with CFS is absolutely suspect...rest of the video is good.  That is why I noted that the MJO was stalling in phase 1 yesterday w several other models...haven't looked at today's yet.  Yeah, I can barely take the CFS seriously because it puts out a different solution often...a broken clock is right twice a day type deal.

Interestingly, the Euro Weeklies have a fairly big break in continuity(compared to previous runs) at 500 beginning around the middle of October.  It has fooled us before by depicting a flip, and then went right back to the eastern ridge.  So, I am going to keep an eye on it for a couple of runs before delving into it so as not to be fooled again.  It is odd that it went right to what DT was talking about.  IDK...  What is tough about the Weeklies is that recently they have not been showing BN temps after week 4.  That is actually verifying as incorrect as there are ares in western Canada and the western US that will likely verify BN to much BN.  So, I just look at heights from week 4 - 6.  

The GEFS on its past two runs is now breaking down the eastern ridge as well in the long term.  The EPS and GEFS are not terribly far apart as they both move the ridge back into the Plains.  That is probably too quick, but who knows?  Maybe they are seeing something.  I suspect they are a couple of weeks too quick.  I am not sure if I would call it a retrograde or just a reforming of the ridge further west...not sure it actually backs west vs reforms there.  Might that be the first time this pattern has "blinked?"  If anything, I think that the changing wavelengths of fall will at least temporarily shake-up the well entrenched western trough/eastern ridge alignment.  As DT mentioned, with that warm water in the eastern Pac, that is going to be a long term problem in keeping an eastern trough.  

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