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donsutherland1

Attribution Report for the July 2019 Heat in Europe

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4 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

The anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions have contributed to the rising atmospheric concentration of such gases. They made the marginal difference. That concentration is driving the ongoing warming.

As for the world ending in 12 years, that’s nonsense that has almost nothing to do with climate change. It is exaggeration that exploits it for political ends that are largely disconnected from it e.g., an economic reordering that deals with non-climate goals. Such tactics fall on the opposite side of the spectrum as denial, with both undercutting the science. Denial ignores the science. The economic reordering gives life to conspiracy theories wielded to discredit the science.

+10!!  The voice of reason, based on the evidence we have.

Would that the science organizations such as the AAAS were not so oblivious of the political uses to which the science is being put. Their silence in the face of the nonsense exaggerations feeds the conspiracy theories imho.

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4 hours ago, etudiant said:

+10!!  The voice of reason, based on the evidence we have.

Would that the science organizations such as the AAAS were not so oblivious of the political uses to which the science is being put. Their silence in the face of the nonsense exaggerations feeds the conspiracy theories imho.

The scientists aren’t politicizing the science. The science is solid. Others outside the field have been doing so.

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38 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

The scientists aren’t politicizing the science. The science is solid. Others outside the field have been doing so.

No argument there, the but not to object when the science is widely presented with nonsense exaggerations feeds the conspiracy theories and hurts the credibility of the underlying discipline.

There are huge malinvestments being made in response to these exaggerations and they come at a considerable social cost. As guiding members of society, scientists do have a responsibility to help it avoid doing stupid stuff imho.

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What are these yuge malinvestments with huge societal costs? People out in industry aren't running around with their heads cut off...

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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2 hours ago, drstuess said:

What are these yuge malinvestments with huge societal costs? People out in industry aren't running around with their heads cut off...

Investors surely are not stupid, so when the government offers large subsidies for hugely more costly but guaranteed profitable duplicate alternative energy sources on grounds that they are not emitting CO2, the money will flow.

Sadly the wind does not blow regularly or evenly, nor does the sun shine constantly or reliably, so old style conventional backup power remains essential and maintenance costs remain high.

In essence society spends resources duplicating its power sources, at the expense of more socially beneficial alternatives. I call that malinvestment and it is very large.

2 hours ago, drstuess said:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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I work in/very closely with that industry and that is not really close to the current state of the industry.

 

Sure PTC, etc can factor in how projects in emerging areas like off-shore pencil, however if you look at the actual current PPA prices I would hope you would evolve your perspective. Hint, onshore wind is relatively steady around 20 $/MWh with combined cycle gas close to twice that and coal >3X. The notion that these projects are some financial burden (even without including externalities) is blind to the industry and the future. Yes, the non-dispatchable nature of renewables factors in and some of the higher penetration middle and end game discussions are open, but considering what's currently going on pricing wise and the emergence of lithium ion, renewables are and should be in the mix.

 

If you want to talk misinvestment, maybe look at all the policy efforts in place to prop up coal plants that have no future. Coal plants that are already built are being priced out of relevance...

 

 

 

 

 

Sent from my SM-G960U using Tapatalk

 

 

 

 

 

 

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It seems to me ... AGW has been a science evolving over the past 30 years. 

Papers/publications from reputable sources ( regardless of the one at hand)  they actually associate - and this is catch - based upon prior work, often containing citation... and if/when the information becomes common place enough... even those become less required.   

These people live and breath and obsess about their acumen, which is this subject matter... and they know those studies already.  My guess is that somewhere in here ..

"References

Aalbers, E., Lenderink, G., van Meijgaard, E., & van den Hurk, B. (2017, April). Changing precipitation in western Europe, climate change or natural variability?. In EGU General Assembly Conference Abstracts (Vol. 19, p. 16050). Azhar, G., Mavalankar, D., Amruta, N., Rajiva, A., Dutta, P., Jaiswal, A., Sheffield, P., Knowlton, K., and Hess, J., Heat-Related Mortality in India: Excess All-Cause Mortality Associated with the 2010 Ahmedabad Heat Wave. PLoS ONE 9(3): e91831. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0091831 Baccini, M., Biggeri, A., Accetta, G., Kosatsky, T., Katsouyanni, K., Analitis, A., …& Michelozzi, P. (2008) Heat Effects on Mortality in 15 European Cities. Epidemiology 19(5) 711-719 Bittner, M., Matthies, E., Dalbokova, D., Menne, B., (2014) Are European countries prepared for the next big heat-wave? European Journal of Public Health 24(4) 615-619 Burt, Stephen and Burt, Tim (2019) Oxford Weather and Climate since 1767. Oxford University Press. Christidis, N., Mitchell, D., Stott, P. A. (2019) Anthropogenic climate change and heat effects on health. International Journal of Climatology, doi:10.1002/joc.6104. Ciavarella, A., Christidis, N., Andrews, M., Groenendijk, M., Rostron, J., Elkington, M., ... & Stott, P. A. (2018). Upgrade of the HadGEM3-A based attribution system to high resolution and a new validation framework for probabilistic event attribution. Weather and climate extremes, 20, 9-32. Ebi, K. L., Teisberg, T. J., Kalkstein, L. S., Robinson, L., & Weiher, R. F. (2004). Heat Watch/ Warning Systems Save Lives: Estimated Costs and Benefits for Philadelphia 1995–98. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 85(8), 1067-1074. doi:10.1175/bams-85-8-1067 Fouillet, A., Rey, G., Wagner, V., Laaidi, K., Empereur-Bissonnet, P., Le Tertre, A., ... & Jougla, E. (2008). Has the impact of heat waves on mortality changed in France since the European heat wave of summer 2003? A study of the 2006 heat wave. International journal of epidemiology, 37(2), 309- 317. Guillod, B., Jones, R. G., Bowery, A., Haustein, K., Massey, N. R., Mitchell, D. M., ... & Wilson, S. (2017). [email protected] home 2: validation of an improved global–regional climate modelling system. Geoscientific Model Development, 10(5), 1849-1872. Haylock, M. R., Hofstra, N., Klein Tank, A. M. G., Klok, E. J., Jones, P. D., and New, M. (2008) A European daily high-resolution gridded data set of surface temperature and precipitation for 1950– 2006, J. Geophys. Res., 113, D20119, https://doi.org/10.1029/2008JD010201. Hazeleger, W., Severijns, C., Semmler, T., Ştefănescu, S., Yang, S., Wang, X., ... & Bougeault, P. (2010). EC-Earth: a seamless earth-system prediction approach in action. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 91(10), 1357-1364. Kew, S. et al, (2019) The exceptional summer heatwave in Southern {Europe} 2017. Bull. Amer. Met. Soc., 100, S2-S5. doi:10.1175/BAMS-D-18-0109.1 Kovats, S. and Hajat, S. (2008) Heat Stress and Public Health: A Critical Review. Annual Review Public Health 29, 41-55 doi: 10.1146/annurev.publhealth.29.020907.090843 Lenderink, G., Van den Hurk, B. J. J. M., Tank, A. K., Van Oldenborgh, G. J., Van Meijgaard, E., De Vries, H., & Beersma, J. J. (2014). Preparing local climate change scenarios for the Netherlands using resampling of climate model output. Environmental Research Letters, 9(11), 115008. Luu, L., R. Vautard, P. Yiou, G. J. van Oldenborgh, and G. Lenderink, 2018, Attribution of extreme rainfall events in the South of France using EURO-CORDEX simulations. Geophys. Res. Lett., doi :10.1029/2018GL077807. Mairie de Paris (2015) Adaptation Strategy: Paris Climate & Energy Action Plan Available at: https://api-site.paris.fr/images/76271 Massey, N., Jones, R., Otto, F. E. L., Aina, T., Wilson, S., Murphy, J. M., ... & Allen, M. R. (2015). [email protected] home—development and validation of a very large ensemble modelling system for probabilistic event attribution. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 141(690), 1528-1545. McGregor, G. R., Bessemoulin, R., Ebi, K., & Menne, B. (Eds.). (2015). Heatwaves and health: Guidance on warning-system development (Vol. 1142). Geneva, Switzerland, World Meteorological Organization and World Health Organisation. Retrieved from: http://bit. ly/2NbDx4S Murray, V., & Ebi, K. L. (2012). IPCC special report on managing the risks of extreme events and disasters to advance climate change adaptation (SREX). Otto, F.E.L., van der Wiel, K., van Oldenborgh, G.J., Philip, S., Kew, S.F., Uhe, P. and Cullen, H. (2017) Climate change increases the probability of heavy rains in Northern England/Southern Scotland like those of storm Desmond - a real-time event attribution revisited. Environmental Research Letters. Philip, S., Kew, S.F., van Oldenborgh, G.J., Aalbers, E., Vautard, R., Otto, F., Haustein, K., Habets, F. and Singh, R. (2018) Validation of a Rapid Attribution of the May/June 2016 Flood-Inducing, Precipitation in France to Climate Change. Journal of Hydrometeorology, 19: 1881-1898. Public Health England (2019). Heatwave plan for England. London, UK, Crown copyright http://bit.ly/31XMamQ Robine, J., Cheung, S., Le Roy, S., Van Oyen, H. Griffiths, C., Michel, JP., Hermann, FR., (2008) Death toll exceeds 70,000 in Europe during the summer of 2003. Comptes Rendus Biologies 331(2) 171-8 doi: 10.1016/j.crvi.2007.12.001 Schaller, N., A. L. Kay, R. Lamb, N. R. Massey, G.-J. van Oldenborgh, F. E. L. Otto, S. N. Sparrow, R. Vautard, P. Yiou, A. Bowery, S. M. Crooks, C. Huntingford, W. Ingram, R. Jones, T. Legg, J. Miller, J. Skeggs, D. Wallom, S. Wilson & M. R. Allen, 2015, Human influence on climate in the 2014 Southern England winter floods and their impacts. Nature climate change, doi:10.1038/nclimate2927. Seneviratne S.I., T. Corti, E.L. Davin, M. Hirschi, E.B. Jaeger, I. Lehner, B. Orlowsky and A.J. Teuling (2010) Investigating soil moisture-climate interactions in a changing climate: A review. Earth Sci. Rev., 99,125–161. Singh, R., Arrighi, J., Jjemba, E., Strachan, K., Spires, M., Kadihasanoglu, A., (2019) Heatwave Guide for Cities. Red Cross Red Crescent Climate Centre. Stott PA, Stone DA, Allen MR. (2004) Human contribution to the European heatwave of 2003, Nature, 432, 7017, 610-614, DOI:10.1038/nature03089. Taylor, K. E., R. J. Stouffer, and G. A. Meehl (2012) An overview of CMIP5 and the experiment design, Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 93(4), 485–498. van Vuuren, D.P., Edmonds, J., Kainuma, M. et al. Climatic Change (2011) 109, 5. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-011-0148-z Vautard, R., van Oldenborgh, G.-J., Otto, F. E. L., Yiou, P., de Vries, H., van Meijgaard, E., Stepek, A., Soubeyroux, J.-M., Philip, S., Kew, S. F., Costella, C., Singh, R., and C. Tebaldi, 2019: Human influence on European wind storms such as those of January 2018. Earth System Dynamics, 10, 271- 286. Vogel M.M., J. Zscheischler, R. Wartenburger, D. Dee, and S.I. Seneviratne (2019, accepted). Concurrent 2018 hot extremes across Northern Hemisphere due to humaninduced climate change. Earth’s Future 7, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019EF001189. Vrac, M., Noël, T. and R. Vautard, 2016: Bias correction of precipitation through Singularity Stochastic Removal: Because occurrences matter, J. Geophys. Res., 121(10), 5237-5258.  "

Might just contain a modicum of previous work reliance .. from folks that ... know more than the those skulking about in social-media's anonymous din of vitriol, who just don't like reality. 

Can it be a reasonable assumption that the authors are merely reliant upon that.  No one has to go back to the beginning to prove the existence of hydrogen atoms every time they're required to describe the existence of water.   

 

 

 

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6 hours ago, etudiant said:

Investors surely are not stupid, so when the government offers large subsidies for hugely more costly but guaranteed profitable duplicate alternative energy sources on grounds that they are not emitting CO2, the money will flow.

Sadly the wind does not blow regularly or evenly, nor does the sun shine constantly or reliably, so old style conventional backup power remains essential and maintenance costs remain high.

In essence society spends resources duplicating its power sources, at the expense of more socially beneficial alternatives. I call that malinvestment and it is very large.

 

The U.S. Tax Code is filled with tax expenditures that benefit specific industries and companies. Conventional energy producers also receive large tax benefits.

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Not sure you want to say "cognitive dissonance" or stick to your numbers.

 

Just like the AGW discussion itself, when you ignore the bluster at both extremes, there certainly is very intriguing and pragmatic discussion regarding the details and science/engineering. Carbon emmisions are dependent on economic growth, climate, energy mix, and regional policy and market structure making signals noisy and solutions ever evolving.

 

The actual carbon emmisions for 2018 (latest full year data) were down 4.5% year over year, with preliminary data from h1 2019 down even more significantly. There was a notable plateau and period of growing pains in the mid 20-teens, however that seems to have been broken. Nevertheless, Germany has fallen behind 2030 goals. Germany and the plateau is certianly something worth studying ( effects of nuclear decommissioning, effective pricing signals and technology mixtures, etc), but does not show the futility of renewables (see overall carbon) and does not strictly translate to different regions and markets.

 

I am sure we in the US might face our own growing pains, however they will most likely be different and to this point they have not been too bad. Our experience in the us has been different till this point. Additionally, renewables are actually driving prices down in markets Yes, in areas with less favorable renewable resources we will need to have the storage and transmission discussion, but at much higher penetrations than most of the US has currently. Hopefully these discussions can be done in good faith and grounded in reality. As I said, the markets in the US have been pretty effective at taking coals plants off line to this point.

 

That is enough typing on my phone for a year and certianly this thread so I will respectfully bow out, but I think there are a lot more pragmatic and smart people out there in the world that you aren't giving enough credit.

 

 

Here are some fairly high level sources.

2018 iea global summary

https://www.iea.org/geco/emissions/

 

Fairly nuetral discussion of German emmisions with data up to 2018

https://www.cleanenergywire.org/factsheets/germanys-greenhouse-gas-emissions-and-climate-targets

 

EIA US emissions overview

https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=37392

 

Wind ppa prices

https://emp.lbl.gov/wind-power-purchase-agreement-ppa-pricesac4ba92a27b60eb38a9f0808d90e70a4.jpg&key=712a9f4f78cb32c1b421bdc2ccc385b38989810edb36a9087182696f4f3bf3ac

 

Sent from my SM-G960U using Tapatalk

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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In spite of all protestations ...  the math is incontrovertible -

To remove any questionable "A" contribution in AGW... requires removing A's contribution.  The instant you try to fabricate any other word, you are illogical and wrong.

That cannot be disputed.  

But excluding that which makes the rest of this futile for a moment... deniers don't even make it clear what they deny...

What are you trying to gain by denying?  

Deniers would have you believe that it would hurt the world, if we stopped polluting the atmosphere? otherwise....

What is their f'ing point! 

The simple truth is, it can only help if humanity stops the pollution.  If there is any question as to whether there is pollution - a far gone scientifically painful truism anyway... You stop and assess. 

Immoral is what it is... People would quite literally prefer to live in delusions perpetuated by a consensus based upon stuff they want to believe, rather than stuff that actually exists in reality and nature.  It's like ... you may not have actually received the Darwin award?  But your certainly in the process of walking to the podium to take the trophy.

 

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1 hour ago, BillT said:

co2 is NOT "pollution"  it is a nutrient required for life as we know it........

Wrong...

right off the bat - tried to deny math.

C02 is pollution if/when it is sourced from profligate measures... and, said sourcing goes above and beyond mass necessity, and becomes a toxin/detriment to the vitality of the system - to mention, because of said profligate activity.

You missed the point... tried to deny.... wrong

 

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57 minutes ago, Bhs1975 said:

CO2 is toxic in only a few percent concentrations.


.

Depends on the biota. 

Some organisms on the planet benefit from CO2 and in fact need it for life.  But yeah .. even for these organisms an over abundance of CO2 becomes toxic…

And in fact that equation is extremely complex ...because organisms that require CO2 may be ecologically co-dependent in their environment by organisms for other vital needs that can't have CO2  - in that sense indirectly toxic by association. 

Fact the matter is there's a delicate balance there ... one that was always there before humanity came along with its hyper-proficient usage of resources of exhaustive consequence, which surpassed that background ability to absorb it - once that happened it became pollution. 

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12 hours ago, BillT said:

co2 is NOT "pollution"  it is a nutrient required for life as we know it........

Context matters. 

One could adopt a similar position toward, let’s say iron. Iron is an essential “nutrient” that is necessary for the formation of red blood cells. Too much iron can lead to some devastating health consequences. In excess, it is poison.

A similar analogy holds with regard to carbon dioxide. In excess, it is pollution given its well-established properties.

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folks pollution is something that is NOT supposed to be there, co2 is REQUIRED being in our air for us to be alive..........of course too much of anything can kill you........but just because too much ice cream can kill you calling ice cream poison would be stupid and false,and those claiming co2 is pollution are LYING and not engaged in science on any level.

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Great Category 6 post:

https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/Baked-Alaska-State-Endures-Warmest-Month-Record

July 2019 was the warmest month on record for the state of Alaska, smashing the previous record by almost one full degree Fahrenheit and leaving numerous local records for hottest day and warmest month in the superheated dust. Records for statewide average temperatures date back to 1925 (with partial data since the late 1880s). Four of the top 10 warmest single months on record (all Julys) has been set in just the past four years. This past June was also the second warmest June on record for the state (following June 2004).

Hottest monthly temperatures on record for Alaska
Figure 1. July 2019 was the warmest single month on record for the state of Alaska,. surpassing the previous record for such (July 2004) by the largest margin ever observed. Four out of the top 10 warmest months on record have occurred in in just the past four years (July 2019, July 2018, July 2017, and July 2016). Image credit: Brian Brettschneider, from NCEI data.

Some of the records set

Anchorage made national news on July 4 when its official temperature at the International Airport peaked at 90° for the first time on record, smashing the previous all-time record of 85° measured on June 14, 1969. The early July heat in Anchorage was unlike anything the city has ever experienced in modern records. Daily high temperature records were broken on six consecutive days from Jul 3 through July 8 (including 85° readings on July 7 and 8, which would have been a tie for the all-time record in their own right).

Just beforehand, June saw five daily record highs from June 23-29. So in the 15-day span of June 23-July 8 eleven days broke their daily heat records! July also had 11 daily high minimum records broken.

The month of July was also the warmest single month on record for the city, with an average temperature of 65.3° crushing the previous warmest month record of 62.7° set in July 2016. In addition, the previous month was the warmest June on record for the city, with an average of 60.5° (previous record 59.5° in June 2015). It should also be noted that July was the 17th consecutive month in Anchorage with an above-normal average monthly temperature. Every single day in Anchorage from May 30 to at least August 7 (as of this writing) has been above normal.

Hottest monthly temperatures on record for Anchorage, AK, airport
Figure 2. July 2019 was the warmest month on record for the city of Anchorage, mimicking the trend for the entire state. The 65.3° average temperature crushed the previous record of 62.7° (set in July 2016) by an astounding 2.6°F. June was also the warmest such month on record setting the stage for what is sure to be the warmest climatological summer (June-August) on record for the city. Image credit: Brian Brettschneider from NCEI data.

It wasn’t just south-central Alaska that baked in July. Other important sites that also measured their warmest single month on record—shown below with the first year of the period of record (POR)—include:

Gulkana: 62.4° (previous record 61.4° in July 2009), POR 1921-
Homer: 58.5° (previous record 58.2° in August 2016), POR 1932-
Iliamna: 63.2° (previous record 59.4° in July 2016 and August 2004), POR 1941-
—June also set a monthly record at Iliamna, with a 57.3° average temperature.
Kenai: 59.4° (previous record 59.0° in July 2016), POR 1899-1907, 1943-
King Salmon: 61.2° (previous record 59.8° in July 1997) POR, 1917- (some years missing)
Kodiak: 60.4° (previous record 60.3° in July 1936), POR 1931-
Kotzebue: 63.8° (previous record 60.0° in July 2009) POR, 1929-
—Kotzebue also observed its warmest June and warmest May on record. As of August 7, it has not had a single day averaging below normal since February 14! The last month with a below-normal temperature average was two years ago, in August 2017.
McGrath: 64.0° (previous record 63.8° in July 2017), POR 1941-
Northway: 62.4° (previous record 62.0° in July 2009), POR 1943-
Talkeetna (Mt. McKinley area): 65.2° (previous record 64.2° in July 2008), POR 1918-
Utqiagvik (Barrow): 48.3° (previous record 46.8° in August 1989), POR 1921-
Yakutat: 59.6° (previous record 57.7° in August 2016), POR 1917-

Numerous other sites with shorter POR’s also observed their warmest month on record.

Departures from average July temperatures at various points in Alaska, July 2019
Figure 3. Every significant weather station in the entire state of Alaska saw much above normal average temperatures during July 2019, a rare feat for such a vast and geographically diverse area. Image credit: Brian Brettschneider from NOAA data.

What is extraordinary about all the records is that the sites where they occurred are representative of a huge portion of what is a vast state. On July 5 the statewide absolute minimum temperature (out of 287 stations) was 42°. That is the warmest daily minimum on record for Alaska since at least 50 stations began collecting daily observations (around 1920). The average statewide temperature on July 6 was likely the highest for any day in any year since at least 1915.

Alaska compared to size of contiguous U.S.
Figure 4. Alaska coves a huge amount of territory with its landmass being the equivalent of 21.3% of that of the contiguous U.S. This makes it fairly rare, at least during the summer, that the entire state would see above normal temperatures. Image credit: Alaska State Archives.

Needless to say, it has been a hellish fire season for the state, with 2.4 million acres charred as of the end of July.

It’s not just Alaska

Unusual warmth has engulfed much of the world’s far northern latitudes this past month. In Greenland, the town of Narsarsuaq saw its temperature soar to 23.4°C (74.1°F) on August 1, not too far from the August monthly heat record for Greenland of 24.1°C (75.4°F) measured at Nuuk on August 26, 2003. The warmth has resulted in unprecedented ice melt, according to Danish officials (197 billion tons of ice melted in July with an additional 12.5 billion loss on August 1 alone, the greatest single-day loss on record). Reykjavik, Iceland had a July monthly average temperature of 13.5°C (56.2°F), some 2.7°C (4.8°F) above its July normal of 10.8°C (51.4°F).

An unusually hot and dry summer in Siberia has resulted in massive wildfires that have engulfed an area the size of Maryland or Belgium (about 15,000 square miles or 10 million acres). Smoke from the fires has drifted as far east as western Canada. Temperatures in the burn area averaged as much as 8°C (14°F) above normal earlier in the summer.

Massive wildfires continue to rage in the Krasnoyarsk Krai, Sakha Republic, and Zabaykalsky Krai regions of Siberia as of August 6
Figure 5. Massive wildfires continue to rage in the Krasnoyarsk Krai, Sakha Republic, and Zabaykalsky Krai regions of Siberia as of August 6. Some 2.6 million hectares (about 10 million acres or about 15,600 square miles—twice the size of Massachusetts) have been scorched so far, making it one of the largest fire complexes in modern history. Image credit: Avialesookhrana/TASS/Getty Images.

At Alert, Canada, the most northerly land-based weather station and permanently inhabited place in the world (located at 82° 30’ latitude), the temperature reached 21.0°C (69.8°) on July 14, its warmest temperature ever observed. This was followed by a nighttime (July 14-15) minimum of 15.2°C (59.4°) an extraordinary figure for a site so close to the North Pole, although the sun shines 24 hours a day here this time of the year.

And, of course, there was the extraordinary heat wave that affected Western and Northern Europe the last week of July. Portions of Scandinavia experienced their warmest temperatures on record, including the city of Helsinki, Finland, where the 33.3°C (91.9°F) measured on July 28 broke their all-time record. See the Category 6 posts for a comprehensive list of the many all-time records set on July 24-25 and July 26.

 

 
 

KUDOS: Brian Brettschneider (climate researcher at the University of Alaska's International Arctic Research Center) for the graphics and many of the temperature records noted in this blog, and partial data back to the late 1880s, and Etienne Kapikian (Météo-France) for the Greenland temperature records.

Christopher C. Burt
Weather Historian

 

 

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3 hours ago, bluewave said:

Great Category 6 post:

https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/Baked-Alaska-State-Endures-Warmest-Month-Record

July 2019 was the warmest month on record for the state of Alaska, smashing the previous record by almost one full degree Fahrenheit and leaving numerous local records for hottest day and warmest month in the superheated dust. Records for statewide average temperatures date back to 1925 (with partial data since the late 1880s). Four of the top 10 warmest single months on record (all Julys) has been set in just the past four years. This past June was also the second warmest June on record for the state (following June 2004).

Hottest monthly temperatures on record for Alaska
Figure 1. July 2019 was the warmest single month on record for the state of Alaska,. surpassing the previous record for such (July 2004) by the largest margin ever observed. Four out of the top 10 warmest months on record have occurred in in just the past four years (July 2019, July 2018, July 2017, and July 2016). Image credit: Brian Brettschneider, from NCEI data.

Some of the records set

Anchorage made national news on July 4 when its official temperature at the International Airport peaked at 90° for the first time on record, smashing the previous all-time record of 85° measured on June 14, 1969. The early July heat in Anchorage was unlike anything the city has ever experienced in modern records. Daily high temperature records were broken on six consecutive days from Jul 3 through July 8 (including 85° readings on July 7 and 8, which would have been a tie for the all-time record in their own right).

Just beforehand, June saw five daily record highs from June 23-29. So in the 15-day span of June 23-July 8 eleven days broke their daily heat records! July also had 11 daily high minimum records broken.

The month of July was also the warmest single month on record for the city, with an average temperature of 65.3° crushing the previous warmest month record of 62.7° set in July 2016. In addition, the previous month was the warmest June on record for the city, with an average of 60.5° (previous record 59.5° in June 2015). It should also be noted that July was the 17th consecutive month in Anchorage with an above-normal average monthly temperature. Every single day in Anchorage from May 30 to at least August 7 (as of this writing) has been above normal.

Hottest monthly temperatures on record for Anchorage, AK, airport
Figure 2. July 2019 was the warmest month on record for the city of Anchorage, mimicking the trend for the entire state. The 65.3° average temperature crushed the previous record of 62.7° (set in July 2016) by an astounding 2.6°F. June was also the warmest such month on record setting the stage for what is sure to be the warmest climatological summer (June-August) on record for the city. Image credit: Brian Brettschneider from NCEI data.

It wasn’t just south-central Alaska that baked in July. Other important sites that also measured their warmest single month on record—shown below with the first year of the period of record (POR)—include:

Gulkana: 62.4° (previous record 61.4° in July 2009), POR 1921-
Homer: 58.5° (previous record 58.2° in August 2016), POR 1932-
Iliamna: 63.2° (previous record 59.4° in July 2016 and August 2004), POR 1941-
—June also set a monthly record at Iliamna, with a 57.3° average temperature.
Kenai: 59.4° (previous record 59.0° in July 2016), POR 1899-1907, 1943-
King Salmon: 61.2° (previous record 59.8° in July 1997) POR, 1917- (some years missing)
Kodiak: 60.4° (previous record 60.3° in July 1936), POR 1931-
Kotzebue: 63.8° (previous record 60.0° in July 2009) POR, 1929-
—Kotzebue also observed its warmest June and warmest May on record. As of August 7, it has not had a single day averaging below normal since February 14! The last month with a below-normal temperature average was two years ago, in August 2017.
McGrath: 64.0° (previous record 63.8° in July 2017), POR 1941-
Northway: 62.4° (previous record 62.0° in July 2009), POR 1943-
Talkeetna (Mt. McKinley area): 65.2° (previous record 64.2° in July 2008), POR 1918-
Utqiagvik (Barrow): 48.3° (previous record 46.8° in August 1989), POR 1921-
Yakutat: 59.6° (previous record 57.7° in August 2016), POR 1917-

Numerous other sites with shorter POR’s also observed their warmest month on record.

Departures from average July temperatures at various points in Alaska, July 2019
Figure 3. Every significant weather station in the entire state of Alaska saw much above normal average temperatures during July 2019, a rare feat for such a vast and geographically diverse area. Image credit: Brian Brettschneider from NOAA data.

What is extraordinary about all the records is that the sites where they occurred are representative of a huge portion of what is a vast state. On July 5 the statewide absolute minimum temperature (out of 287 stations) was 42°. That is the warmest daily minimum on record for Alaska since at least 50 stations began collecting daily observations (around 1920). The average statewide temperature on July 6 was likely the highest for any day in any year since at least 1915.

Alaska compared to size of contiguous U.S.
Figure 4. Alaska coves a huge amount of territory with its landmass being the equivalent of 21.3% of that of the contiguous U.S. This makes it fairly rare, at least during the summer, that the entire state would see above normal temperatures. Image credit: Alaska State Archives.

Needless to say, it has been a hellish fire season for the state, with 2.4 million acres charred as of the end of July.

It’s not just Alaska

Unusual warmth has engulfed much of the world’s far northern latitudes this past month. In Greenland, the town of Narsarsuaq saw its temperature soar to 23.4°C (74.1°F) on August 1, not too far from the August monthly heat record for Greenland of 24.1°C (75.4°F) measured at Nuuk on August 26, 2003. The warmth has resulted in unprecedented ice melt, according to Danish officials (197 billion tons of ice melted in July with an additional 12.5 billion loss on August 1 alone, the greatest single-day loss on record). Reykjavik, Iceland had a July monthly average temperature of 13.5°C (56.2°F), some 2.7°C (4.8°F) above its July normal of 10.8°C (51.4°F).

An unusually hot and dry summer in Siberia has resulted in massive wildfires that have engulfed an area the size of Maryland or Belgium (about 15,000 square miles or 10 million acres). Smoke from the fires has drifted as far east as western Canada. Temperatures in the burn area averaged as much as 8°C (14°F) above normal earlier in the summer.

Massive wildfires continue to rage in the Krasnoyarsk Krai, Sakha Republic, and Zabaykalsky Krai regions of Siberia as of August 6
Figure 5. Massive wildfires continue to rage in the Krasnoyarsk Krai, Sakha Republic, and Zabaykalsky Krai regions of Siberia as of August 6. Some 2.6 million hectares (about 10 million acres or about 15,600 square miles—twice the size of Massachusetts) have been scorched so far, making it one of the largest fire complexes in modern history. Image credit: Avialesookhrana/TASS/Getty Images.

At Alert, Canada, the most northerly land-based weather station and permanently inhabited place in the world (located at 82° 30’ latitude), the temperature reached 21.0°C (69.8°) on July 14, its warmest temperature ever observed. This was followed by a nighttime (July 14-15) minimum of 15.2°C (59.4°) an extraordinary figure for a site so close to the North Pole, although the sun shines 24 hours a day here this time of the year.

And, of course, there was the extraordinary heat wave that affected Western and Northern Europe the last week of July. Portions of Scandinavia experienced their warmest temperatures on record, including the city of Helsinki, Finland, where the 33.3°C (91.9°F) measured on July 28 broke their all-time record. See the Category 6 posts for a comprehensive list of the many all-time records set on July 24-25 and July 26.

 

 
 

KUDOS: Brian Brettschneider (climate researcher at the University of Alaska's International Arctic Research Center) for the graphics and many of the temperature records noted in this blog, and partial data back to the late 1880s, and Etienne Kapikian (Météo-France) for the Greenland temperature records.

Christopher C. Burt
Weather Historian

 

 

Forest fires are a natural part of the boreal forest zone.  During the Holocene Climatic Optimum temperatures up there were estimated based on pollen cores and the tree line data to be 2-4C warmer than present. Surely, fires have been burning up there for the ages and some years there are more fires and others there are less. This is called variability which weather and climate display on various time scales. Its normal. 

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4 minutes ago, blizzard1024 said:

Forest fires are a natural part of the boreal forest zone.  During the Holocene Climatic Optimum temperatures up there were estimated based on pollen cores and the tree line data to be 2-4C warmer than present. Surely, fires have been burning up there for the ages and some years there are more fires and others there are less. This is called variability which weather and climate display on various time scales. Its normal. 

The radiosonde data for Fairbanks clearly shows an above normal month but not a record. Notice how 300 mb data shows very little warming over the long term. This is where CO2 is supposed to warm the atmosphere the most.  

see below 

network_RAOB__station_KFAI__hour_00__month_jul__agg_avg__var_tmpc__level_925__dpi_100.png.afb27f81f3b44c2724dbfe74e6a403a7.pngnetwork_RAOB__station_KFAI__hour_00__month_jul__agg_avg__var_tmpc__level_850__dpi_100.png.756f06e57cc500f7c927adda78132de5.pngnetwork_RAOB__station_KFAI__hour_00__month_jul__agg_avg__var_tmpc__level_300__dpi_100.png.4bcb67574197dae5401ebcf8faef196c.png

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13 hours ago, blizzard1024 said:

Forest fires are a natural part of the boreal forest zone.  During the Holocene Climatic Optimum temperatures up there were estimated based on pollen cores and the tree line data to be 2-4C warmer than present. Surely, fires have been burning up there for the ages and some years there are more fires and others there are less. This is called variability which weather and climate display on various time scales. Its normal. 

Past climate eras before the industrial revolution were driven by natural variability. What we are experiencing now is a result of increasing co2 emissions. The present day record Arctic wildfire activity is just another sign.

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Of note too, look at how it is drying in the upper troposphere....which is a reduction in the main GHG.  This is the dewpoint at 300 mb.  Significant downward trends. 500 mb is fairly steady and so is 850

mb. This suggests a drying atmosphere (especially upper level where it counts )which compensates for the small increase in CO2. Recent warmth likely due to natural variability. But some scientist I am sure will write a paper in the next week and get it through peer review in another couple weeks and we will be reading about it in this forum. So stay tuned....

 

network_RAOB__station_KFAI__hour_00__month_jul__agg_avg__var_dwpc__level_300__dpi_100.png.8840f9808b69da39d676c51a0e751aad.pngnetwork_RAOB__station_KFAI__hour_00__month_jul__agg_avg__var_dwpc__level_500__dpi_100.png.859e698333e16b86d598dbce2e80a46d.pngnetwork_RAOB__station_KFAI__hour_00__month_jul__agg_avg__var_dwpc__level_850__dpi_100.png.7b3b8c13da24118d9ad75d0d27b642da.png

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17 minutes ago, blizzard1024 said:

Forest fires are a natural part of the boreal forest zone.  During the Holocene Climatic Optimum temperatures up there were estimated based on pollen cores and the tree line data to be 2-4C warmer than present. Surely, fires have been burning up there for the ages and some years there are more fires and others there are less. This is called variability which weather and climate display on various time scales. Its normal. 

Two key parameters were omitted:

1. The Holocene Climatic Optimum was warmer than today in part of the Northern Hemisphere, not globally.

2. The excess warmth over today in those regions concerned the summer months.

When everything is taken in context, a more accurate statement would read: the Holocene Climatic Optimum had warmer summers than today in part of the Northern Hemisphere.

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Just now, bluewave said:

Past climate eras before the industrial revolution were driven by natural variability. What we are experiencing no is a result of increasing co2 emissions.

How can you say this so confidently?  You don't understand the non-linearlities inherent in the Earth's atmosphere.  Come on. All your argument is based in climate models. Mine are based on observations. It was warmer before and it could easily warm more. 

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4 minutes ago, blizzard1024 said:

How can you say this so confidently?  You don't understand the non-linearlities inherent in the Earth's atmosphere.  Come on. All your argument is based in climate models. Mine are based on observations. It was warmer before and it could easily warm more. 

Science says so confidently. Most of the talking points you have brought up in this thread have been debunked many times in the past.

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2 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Science says so confidently. Most of the talking points you have brought up in this thread have been debunked many times in the past.

Science?  climate science is not real science.....

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Look at the data bluewave. The upper troposphere is drying. Since it doesn't fit the narrative they dismiss it. Look at the cloud data from NASA 1983-2009, when there were more clouds on the planet temps cools and vice versa. That dataset is dismissed too. Heck look at the U.S temperature record, NCDC has fudged so much data that many states which show no warming trend in the past hundred plus years after adjustments are now showing 2-3F or more rises per century. And the time of ob has nothing to do with this. High temperature data shows the same trends as low temperature data...none until they adjust the data. I could go on, but the real science deniers are the folks who buy into CAGW and won't even look at the real data or understand rad tran or even understand the earth's atmosphere.....   

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15 minutes ago, blizzard1024 said:

Of note too, look at how it is drying in the upper troposphere....which is a reduction in the main GHG.  This is the dewpoint at 300 mb.  Significant downward trends. 500 mb is fairly steady and so is 850

mb. This suggests a drying atmosphere (especially upper level where it counts )which compensates for the small increase in CO2. Recent warmth likely due to natural variability. But some scientist I am sure will write a paper in the next week and get it through peer review in another couple weeks and we will be reading about it in this forum. So stay tuned....

 

network_RAOB__station_KFAI__hour_00__month_jul__agg_avg__var_dwpc__level_300__dpi_100.png.8840f9808b69da39d676c51a0e751aad.pngnetwork_RAOB__station_KFAI__hour_00__month_jul__agg_avg__var_dwpc__level_500__dpi_100.png.859e698333e16b86d598dbce2e80a46d.pngnetwork_RAOB__station_KFAI__hour_00__month_jul__agg_avg__var_dwpc__level_850__dpi_100.png.7b3b8c13da24118d9ad75d0d27b642da.png

Impacts can have regional variation and also lags. Do you have the relevant global charts?

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