Occasional Thoughts on Climate Change

[LibertyBell]

On 7/13/2025 at 1:58 PM, TheClimateChanger said:

One note on the IEM estimates, they tend to be off from the actual NCEI values. Comparing 1936 summer as a whole, they have it warmer than NCEI in many places (except the southwest, which they show as decidedly colder). I think the estimates for recent years are generally the opposite bias (i.e., a bit cooler). Either way, should come in as a very warm summer for the CONUS. Not sure we poach 2021 or 1936 though.

2010 had our hottest summer here

[LibertyBell]

On 7/3/2025 at 2:46 PM, donsutherland1 said:

At best, there is a hint of an uncertain weak cyclical effect. However, changes in aerosols may well have driven most of the cooling seen in the 1960s. In any case, strong and persistent warming from UHI + anthropogenic climate change have overwhelmed any periodicity that might exist in Phoenix. The warmest summer during the 1930s was 1933 with a mean of 91.7° and the warmest year during the 1930s was 1934 with a mean of 74.2°. Every summer and every year since 2000 has exceeded those figures. The last cooler summer was 1999 and the last cooler year was 1998.

For the nation as a whole there seems to be an 11 year cycle-- 1933, 1944, 1955, 1966, 1977, 1988, 1999, 2010, 2010, 2021, the next one would be 2032.

 

Other years around those years are very hot too, it's just that the above are the hottest of their era.

[donsutherland1]

11 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

Two of our hotter summers were 1933 and 1936, so I find that really interesting

Was 1944 very hot in Phoenix too Don?

Not very warm. Up to 1944, it was the 33rd warmest or 17th coolest summer. Through 2024, it is the 108th warmest or 22nd coolest summer.

[TheClimateChanger]

Current forecasts suggest the possibility of at least 5 consecutive days of 100F readings at Charlotte, which would match the longest streak there on record. Certainly, looks like a hot stretch coming up for the southeastern United States. Yes, it's hot there in the summertime, but this looks pretty impressive even for those areas.

 

[ChescoWx]

Will be fun to see another climate doomer forecast fall by the boards.....

[ChescoWx]

Great quote from Professional MET Chris Martz

"To think that we actually have the ability to significantly control the weather is an exercise for superstitious people. We are a fart in the wind in the grand scheme of things, and to spend all your life worried over things you have no control over is a waste of time."

Is human induced climate change our biggest conspiracy theory out there??

[bdgwx]

7 hours ago, ChescoWx said:

Will be fun to see another climate doomer forecast fall by the boards.....

 

Here is what the "doomers" actually say.

Of the 366 simulations only 9 (or 2%) showed an ice-free state before 2030.

Of the 366 simulations only 34 (or 10%) showed an ice-free state within 10 years.

The median/median timing of the first ice-free state is 24/29 years.

This puts the 2σ right tail at about 61 years or the year 2084.

We have a LONG way to go (61 years) before we can declare this "doomer" prediction to "fall by the board" at the standard 2σ confidence interval.

[Heuze & Jahn 2024]

[Typhoon Tip]

3 minutes ago, bdgwx said:

 

Here is what the "doomers" actually say.

Of the 366 simulations only 9 (or 2%) showed an ice-free state before 2030.

Of the 366 simulations only 34 (or 10%) showed an ice-free state within 10 years.

The median/median timing of the first ice-free state is 24/29 years.

This puts the 2σ right tail at about 61 years or the year 2084.

We have a LONG way to go (61 years) before we can declare this "doomer" prediction to "fall by the board" at the standard 2σ confidence interval.

[Heuze & Jahn 2024]

You can’t penetrate that individuals mind with logic. 

Them is impervious to objective reality