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Occasional Thoughts on Climate Change


donsutherland1
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2 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

twitter should autoban these people

 

did you see how bots are spreading a false narrative of australian wildfires being mainly "caused" by arsonists?

 

 

Yes, I did read about how the bots are spreading disinformation. Social Media platforms may be the battleground where the dying climate denial movement is making its last stand. Science has already triumphed in the research publications field (though pseudo-journals may be launched to try to create confusion) and it has made major gains among numerous media outlets (except mainly for ideology- or interest-driven ones). Nevertheless, ignorance-driven movements typically prove unsustainable in the long-term when knowledge becomes widely-diffused.

Unfortunately, when it comes to addressing the challenges of anthropogenic climate change, early significant progress is needed, due to the long atmospheric residence of some greenhouse gases and the increase in forcing associated with their increasing atmospheric concentration. There is real urgency for society--on a global basis--to begin to make serious efforts to address the challenge. But, for now, with some exceptions, there remains a leadership deficit and the impact of that deficit is compounded by the noise of the shrinking but still loud climate change denial movement (and the interests, some with vast financial resources, that have a vested stake in its goals).

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3 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

twitter should autoban these people

 

did you see how bots are spreading a false narrative of australian wildfires being mainly "caused" by arsonists?

 

 

I've read and heard from more reliable sources that arson is suspected in a number of the Australian wildfires.  That doesn't change the fact that abnormally hot and dry weather (at a time when climo is already hot and dry) is making those fires far more catastrophic than they would be with normal weather, and far harsher to those trying to control the fires.

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32 minutes ago, tamarack said:

I've read and heard from more reliable sources that arson is suspected in a number of the Australian wildfires.  That doesn't change the fact that abnormally hot and dry weather (at a time when climo is already hot and dry) is making those fires far more catastrophic than they would be with normal weather, and far harsher to those trying to control the fires.

There has definitely been arson. However, the disinformation being circulated is a claim that 90% or more of the fires are the result of arson (not lightning, not accident, etc.).

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Some excerpts from a timely interview with Penn State University climate scientist Michael Mann:

JAISAL NOOR: So you actually traveled to Australia to study the links between climate change and extreme weather events. You didn’t go to cover what’s happening now, but describe what you have discovered since you’ve been there.

MICHAEL MANN: Yeah. It’s a bit surreal, because this trip, this sabbatical, was more than a year in the making. And indeed my goal was to come here to Australia to collaborate with some Australian scientists and understanding the scientific linkages between climate change and extreme weather events in Australia. And of course, ironically I arrived at the time that Australia was experiencing perhaps the most extreme weather on record in the form of unprecedented heat across the continent.

And of course these unprecedented bush fires that are literally spreading across the continent. I’ve witnessed these impacts firsthand here in Sydney where I’m staying. Yesterday, I couldn’t go outside and take my usual daily run because the air quality was dangerous from all the smoke that was blowing in from these wildfires. And so here in Sydney, climate change isn’t just some theoretical construct. It’s something that is playing out in real time. I can look out my window and see it...

JAISAL NOOR: Now have we reached a tipping point when it comes to climate change and these catastrophes that are unfolding not only in Australia but you see around the world. You see this growing devastation that natural disasters are causing. And is it possible to reverse this at this point? What would that look like?

MICHAEL MANN: Yeah, so there is the danger of tipping points. You know when things get dry enough and hot enough, you can see a very dramatic escalation of these wildfires and bush fires here in Australia. And arguably that’s what we’re seeing in California and the Western US. That’s what we’re seeing here in Australia and in any many other regions around the world where summers are getting hot enough and dry enough that you just see this almost exponential escalation in these wildfires.

So we may indeed be starting to cross a tipping point where, in the very best case, we are dealing with the new norm. That is to say, if we stop warming the planet and we sort of stabilize temperatures, we don’t worsen the problem.

https://therealnews.com/stories/australia-fire-denying-climate-change-wont-save-you

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4 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

There has definitely been arson. However, the disinformation being circulated is a claim that 90% or more of the fires are the result of arson (not lightning, not accident, etc.).

Arson seems very far fetched, who by and for what purpose are obvious questions, plus this is a nation wide problem, too big for a bunch of fire bugs imho.

What does however seem plausible is that poor range management is a major factor. Afaik, the aborigines used fire as a control tool, preventing the kind of fuel load buildup thatsupports massive fires. More recent policy has been to prevent fires more aggressively, so the vegetation has not been thinned as before. This seems quite similar to the recent California fires, likewise made more intense by the abundance of fuel resulting from an extended period without fires. That unchecked growth combined with a super hot summer is a recipe for disaster, as is now apparent.

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4 minutes ago, etudiant said:

Arson seems very far fetched, who by and for what purpose are obvious questions, plus this is a nation wide problem, too big for a bunch of fire bugs imho.

What does however seem plausible is that poor range management is a major factor. Afaik, the aborigines used fire as a control tool, preventing the kind of fuel load buildup thatsupports massive fires. More recent policy has been to prevent fires more aggressively, so the vegetation has not been thinned as before. This seems quite similar to the recent California fires, likewise made more intense by the abundance of fuel resulting from an extended period without fires. That unchecked growth combined with a super hot summer is a recipe for disaster, as is now apparent.

Yes. I agree with you.

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It's another cynical manipulation of the general public aimed at leaving folk 'unalarmed' by the fires (as it's not 'definitely AGW' driving the conditions that increasingly allow for such to occur so 'no worries'?)

As long as folk 'Think' the jury's still out on the peril we are ambling into (via our polluting of the planet/atmosphere) then their 'fight or flight' responses will not be triggered and so the 'Mass Movement' of folk globally demanding for radical actions to 'mitigate' all that we already have coming will not occur...... and so the folk 'profiting' from The Many not 'recognising the crisis' continue on B.A.U.

There will come the first of the (to us public?) 'Black Swan Events' that does trigger most folks 'fight or flight' responses...... 

 

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2 hours ago, Gray-Wolf said:

It's another cynical manipulation of the general public aimed at leaving folk 'unalarmed' by the fires (as it's not 'definitely AGW' driving the conditions that increasingly allow for such to occur so 'no worries'?)

As long as folk 'Think' the jury's still out on the peril we are ambling into (via our polluting of the planet/atmosphere) then their 'fight or flight' responses will not be triggered and so the 'Mass Movement' of folk globally demanding for radical actions to 'mitigate' all that we already have coming will not occur...... and so the folk 'profiting' from The Many not 'recognising the crisis' continue on B.A.U.

There will come the first of the (to us public?) 'Black Swan Events' that does trigger most folks 'fight or flight' responses...... 

 

Suspect that here in the US, it won't be till Mar-a- Lago is flooded, not sure what a comparable event would be in China, but perhaps Hong Kong might serve,,,

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14 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Why the "LOL?" Mann has been among the most prolific, influential, and widely-cited climate researchers, including in recent years. His work has been cited more than 35,000 times, including more than 12,000 times since 2015.

Don, the poster may have been referring to the  film Director Michael K Mann. Thank you for the lead on Doctor Michael E, Mann. I trying to read the Australia report. As always .....

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11 minutes ago, bobjohnsonforthehall said:

Nope. I'm referring to Michael Mann the fear monger. Lol.

My apologies for the presumption, Strong belief and strong denial will often lead to stronger emotions. Whatever the outcome, time will tell, whether/weather we like it or not. As always ...

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19 minutes ago, rclab said:

My apologies for the presumption, Strong belief and strong denial will often lead to stronger emotions. Whatever the outcome, time will tell, whether/weather we like it or not. As always ...

Certainly true. I do not have a problem with individuals who believe that humans are causing great harm to the climate. I have far more of a problem with people like Mann who have made themselves into something of a cottage industry and become quite wealthy and well healed while simultaneously doing their best to protect their status by slandering and trying to shut down conversation and dissension. He is the antithesis of what science is supposed to be. Thus the lol.

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I tend to think we'd be far better placed to be dealing with the climate crisis had the likes of Mann/Hansen been listened to in the late 80's/early 90's rather than allow them to be mauled by the paid climate change Deniers for the last 2 decades?

As China rapidly cleans up its polluting we are finding that 'La Nada' years can now challenge Super Nino years for global temp records?..... had we only listened to Hansen's warnings about the amount of warming that was being 'masked' by the Global Dimming a rapidly industrialising China provided we would not be scratching our heads as to 'how' a La Nada year can grab second warmest global year with only a super nino bettering its efforts....

With China showing no signs of letting up on its headlong charge to scrub all emissions we will pretty soon find out how much of that 0.68 C (that Hansen suggested was being 'masked' by Dimming?) will drop in on top of the year on year global temp rises.....

Had we taken note of Mann's concerns about the Arctic we might not now be facing the peril of a Blue Ocean Event over the coming decade (& the 25 yrs worth of warming it would dump into the climate system over a single year?) but 'No!' , the empty vessels go and fill up at WUWT and bang their drum good and loud wherever they're able....

Those Stalactites, in their Siberian caves, make it plain that 1.5c above pre-industrial costs us the permafrost (and brings about a resumption in their growth as liquid water again flows over them....)

So we're at 1.2 C above pre-industrial (with 0.68 C possibly waiting to put in an appearance as soon as the Sulphates/Particulates allow) and the Arctic lurching ever closer to delivering another 25 yrs worth of warming over a single year should we see the B.O.E. made flesh........ Yup! should have paid attention to them and their like for decades now instead of choosing the B.A.U. pathway whilst the Climate Change Deniers wailed....

 

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China cleans up its polluting? Does their "scrubbing of all emissions" include the building of more coal plants than are being built in the rest of the world combined or no? 

 

Blue ocean event? Is that like the glaciers in Glacier National Park completely disappearing this year? Only they're not? Or the plethora of other dommsday predictions that have failed to materialize over the decades? 

 

But yeah. Michael Mann and stuff. True genius.

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9 minutes ago, bobjohnsonforthehall said:

China cleans up its polluting? Does their "scrubbing of all emissions" include the building of more coal plants than are being built in the rest of the world combined or no? 

 

Blue ocean event? Is that like the glaciers in Glacier National Park completely disappearing this year? Only they're not? Or the plethora of other dommsday predictions that have failed to materialize over the decades? 

 

But yeah. Michael Mann and stuff. True genius.

That's a point a lot of people either ignore or worse. I believe the US/Europe contribute 15% of all emissions & are gradually declining while China/India/Russia do the rest and they're rising. 

Even if the US/Europe were to go net zero we'd still have a global problem. Unless those countries change, nothing will change. 

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6 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

That's a point a lot of people either ignore or worse. I believe the US/Europe contribute 15% of all emissions & are gradually declining while China/India/Russia do the rest and they're rising. 

Even if the US/Europe were to go net zero we'd still have a global problem. Unless those countries change, nothing will change. 

That's a good indication that all of this has little to nothing to actually do with trying to save the planet from humans. Developed nations CO2 emissions are projected to decrease over the coming decades, while CO2 emissions from developing nations (China, India etc) are expected to increase by some 87%. If this was truly about saving the planet from CO2 emissions, people would be throwing China, India et al under the bus en masse. Instead you rarely hear criticism regarding not only their currently large emissions as a global percentage, but also their trajectory of future emissions as a global percentage. Why would that be?

 

 

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On 1/10/2020 at 1:45 PM, donsutherland1 said:

Yes, I did read about how the bots are spreading disinformation. Social Media platforms may be the battleground where the dying climate denial movement is making its last stand. Science has already triumphed in the research publications field (though pseudo-journals may be launched to try to create confusion) and it has made major gains among numerous media outlets (except mainly for ideology- or interest-driven ones). Nevertheless, ignorance-driven movements typically prove unsustainable in the long-term when knowledge becomes widely-diffused.

Unfortunately, when it comes to addressing the challenges of anthropogenic climate change, early significant progress is needed, due to the long atmospheric residence of some greenhouse gases and the increase in forcing associated with their increasing atmospheric concentration. There is real urgency for society--on a global basis--to begin to make serious efforts to address the challenge. But, for now, with some exceptions, there remains a leadership deficit and the impact of that deficit is compounded by the noise of the shrinking but still loud climate change denial movement (and the interests, some with vast financial resources, that have a vested stake in its goals).

I believe they have some professional psychologists working for them who know exactly how to confuse people.  The mind games are strong, the science of spreading propaganda has been perfected over the decades..... the Nazis did this too.

 

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48 minutes ago, bobjohnsonforthehall said:

That's a good indication that all of this has little to nothing to actually do with trying to save the planet from humans. Developed nations CO2 emissions are projected to decrease over the coming decades, while CO2 emissions from developing nations (China, India etc) are expected to increase by some 87%. If this was truly about saving the planet from CO2 emissions, people would be throwing China, India et al under the bus en masse. Instead you rarely hear criticism regarding not only their currently large emissions as a global percentage, but also their trajectory of future emissions as a global percentage. Why would that be?

 

 

Trust me, I have been throwing China and India under the bus too.  Do you know the air in Delhi India is so polluted they cant even breathe there?  The meat industry also has to change- they are right behind China and the US when it comes to greenhouse gas emissions.

 

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On 1/10/2020 at 2:15 PM, tamarack said:

I've read and heard from more reliable sources that arson is suspected in a number of the Australian wildfires.  That doesn't change the fact that abnormally hot and dry weather (at a time when climo is already hot and dry) is making those fires far more catastrophic than they would be with normal weather, and far harsher to those trying to control the fires.

Yes indeed, about two dozen arsonists were arrested, however the vast and unprecedented scope of the fires was because of the antecedent conditions (hottest and driest on record by a fair margin.)

 

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1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said:

That's a point a lot of people either ignore or worse. I believe the US/Europe contribute 15% of all emissions & are gradually declining while China/India/Russia do the rest and they're rising. 

Even if the US/Europe were to go net zero we'd still have a global problem. Unless those countries change, nothing will change. 

Having fewer children is the best way individual people can help.

 

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1 hour ago, bobjohnsonforthehall said:

China cleans up its polluting? Does their "scrubbing of all emissions" include the building of more coal plants than are being built in the rest of the world combined or no? 

 

Blue ocean event? Is that like the glaciers in Glacier National Park completely disappearing this year? Only they're not? Or the plethora of other dommsday predictions that have failed to materialize over the decades? 

 

But yeah. Michael Mann and stuff. True genius.

well the coral reef predictions are sure coming to pass.

 

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On 1/11/2020 at 3:33 PM, etudiant said:

Suspect that here in the US, it won't be till Mar-a- Lago is flooded, not sure what a comparable event would be in China, but perhaps Hong Kong might serve,,,

Mar a Lago will likely be flooded before 2050, parts of the Keys have already been underwater for a few months now.

About Hong Kong, thats probably what China wants.  Did you read about how they didn't care when they had manmade earthquakes as a result of building giant dams?

 

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On 1/10/2020 at 7:59 PM, etudiant said:

Arson seems very far fetched, who by and for what purpose are obvious questions, plus this is a nation wide problem, too big for a bunch of fire bugs imho.

What does however seem plausible is that poor range management is a major factor. Afaik, the aborigines used fire as a control tool, preventing the kind of fuel load buildup thatsupports massive fires. More recent policy has been to prevent fires more aggressively, so the vegetation has not been thinned as before. This seems quite similar to the recent California fires, likewise made more intense by the abundance of fuel resulting from an extended period without fires. That unchecked growth combined with a super hot summer is a recipe for disaster, as is now apparent.

I'm wondering if their new climate can no longer support their old growth..... ditto with Siberia and California, where other multimillion acre fires have been occurring.  We might be seeing a long term evolution towards a more desert or, at the very least, a grassland/savanna kind of climate.

 

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54 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

I believe they have some professional psychologists working for them who know exactly how to confuse people.  The mind games are strong, the science of spreading propaganda has been perfected over the decades..... the Nazis did this too.

 

Who is this "they" you speak of...that you are equating to nazis?

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53 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Trust me, I have been throwing China and India under the bus too.  Do you know the air in Delhi India is so polluted they cant even breathe there?  The meat industry also has to change- they are right behind China and the US when it comes to greenhouse gas emissions.

 

Good luck with that. And by that I mean...get your hands off my burger!

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