Occasional Thoughts on Climate Change

[gallopinggertie]

On 12/17/2025 at 6:18 PM, TheClimateChanger said:

 

This December has been insanely mild here in the Pacific Northwest. Can’t help but it’s a preview of what the typical December will be like in…2250? 

[TheClimateChanger]

 

[TheClimateChanger]

On 12/19/2025 at 12:51 AM, gallopinggertie said:

This December has been insanely mild here in the Pacific Northwest. Can’t help but it’s a preview of what the typical December will be like in…2250? 

2250? That seems rather optimistic.

[TheClimateChanger]

 

[tacoman25]

On 12/18/2025 at 10:51 PM, gallopinggertie said:

This December has been insanely mild here in the Pacific Northwest. Can’t help but it’s a preview of what the typical December will be like in…2250? 

Very persistent pattern. Something similar has happened before...1917 had an insanely warm and persistent pattern for the PNW/West. This one just looks a bit warmer and more persistent.

Don't tell the residents of Juneau, Fairbanks, or Whitehorse that this is what future Decembers will look like. All three are on track for one of their coldest Decembers on record.

[gallopinggertie]

8 hours ago, TheClimateChanger said:

2250? That seems rather optimistic.

It’s been 9 degrees above average here, do you really think winters will warm up that much before 2250?

[gallopinggertie]

3 hours ago, tacoman25 said:

Very persistent pattern. Something similar has happened before...1917 had an insanely warm and persistent pattern for the PNW/West. This one just looks a bit warmer and more persistent.

Don't tell the residents of Juneau, Fairbanks, or Whitehorse that this is what future Decembers will look like. All three are on track for one of their coldest Decembers on record.

The pattern isn’t unprecedented, but in the context of climate change, it’s hard not to look at things like this as previews of the future. Notice you said this is warmer and more persistent than 1917…as the years go by, these kinds of patterns will get more and moreso, until voila! Eventually a month like this won’t even be that out of the ordinary.

[GaWx]

6 hours ago, tacoman25 said:

Very persistent pattern. Something similar has happened before...1917 had an insanely warm and persistent pattern for the PNW/West. This one just looks a bit warmer and more persistent.

Don't tell the residents of Juneau, Fairbanks, or Whitehorse that this is what future Decembers will look like. All three are on track for one of their coldest Decembers on record.

And not surprisingly, Dec/Jan 1917-18 was (one of) the coldest in E US on record!

[chubbs]

Hunga Tonga volcano assessment report is out. Large effect on stratosphere but relatively small effect at surface: 

Professor Maycock said, "The Report shows that although water vapor is a greenhouse gas, Hunga had a net cooling effect overall and did not cause the record level of global warming observed in 2023 and 2024. This is a very important finding as understanding what caused the recent surge in global warming is a priority for the climate science community."

https://phys.org/news/2025-12-international-reveals-atmospheric-impact-hunga.html

https://juser.fz-juelich.de/record/1049154/files/Hunga_APARC_Report_full.pdf?version=1

[TheClimateChanger]

20 hours ago, gallopinggertie said:

It’s been 9 degrees above average here, do you really think winters will warm up that much before 2250?

Maybe not. I was looking more from an eastern United States perspective where many areas are warming by as 8-11F per century in December since 1970, but it looks like it's more 2-4F per century in the Pacific northwest.

[frontranger8]

2 hours ago, TheClimateChanger said:

Maybe not. I was looking more from an eastern United States perspective where many areas are warming by as 8-11F per century in December since 1970, but it looks like it's more 2-4F per century in the Pacific northwest.

For most PNW stations, December has seen around 1-2F warming since 1940s. February hasn't warmed at all. Summer warming has been much more pronounced.

[WolfStock1]

On 12/20/2025 at 11:21 AM, TheClimateChanger said:

 

 

Some people aren't very good students of history, it appears.   How many times do predictions of things like "food insecurity" have to be wrong in order for people to learn?   

Sorry but alarmism like this deservers to be mocked.   It certainly doesn't help the cause any.

 

[Brewbeer]

go ahead and "mock" it

it won't be you and your family running out of food

[Typhoon Tip]

https://phys.org/news/2025-12-climate-misinformation-national-threat-canada.html

[WolfStock1]

3 hours ago, Brewbeer said:

go ahead and "mock" it

it won't be you and your family running out of food

 

Worldwide food production has increased *four-fold* since 1960.  

https://ourworldindata.org/agricultural-production

If MMGW was a significant problem for food production I'm pretty sure that wouldn't be the case.

I wouldn't propose that there will be zero impact on food production - however it is clear to anyone who knows how things work that any such impact will be vastly smaller in scale that mankind's ability to adapt and will more than offset any such negative impact (if there was to be one), such as happened after the big "Population Bomb" food-shortage scaremongering of the late 60's.   Such scaremongering has been proven wrong time and again, and as such deserves to to be mocked.

 

 

(World population grew by 2.7x during this period; thus food production increase outpaced - and continues to outpace - population growth, especially as population growth continues slowing.)

[TheClimateChanger]

 

[TheClimateChanger]

 

[Brewbeer]

we get it - you have plenty to eat

just like I said, well off westerners aren’t going hungry any time soon

doesn’t mean others won’t - or aren’t

[WolfStock1]

55 minutes ago, Brewbeer said:

we get it - you have plenty to eat

just like I said, well off westerners aren’t going hungry any time soon

doesn’t mean others won’t - or aren’t

 

Indeed - as has been the case for all of human history, and will continue to be the case for all of the rest of human history.

The difference is that increasingly the primary reason for people going hungry isn't food production issues (or climate change), it's political instability.  (e.g. see https://agecon.unl.edu/violent-conflict-drives-world-hunger-and-food-insecurity/)

If anything attempts to *prevent* climate change will bring about a higher level of food insecurity, as less and less prosperity is available to poor areas, due to increasing pressure to not avoid using fossil fuels (e.g. for things like farm equipment, more-abundant electricity to power food processing facilities and transportation, etc.).

Tugging on "going hungry" heart strings is nice, but one has to also use one's brain.   That includes realization that the use of fossil fuels is a big enabler of prosperity; and that prosperity helps bring about - among other things - an abundance of food.