Occasional Thoughts on Climate Change

[gallopinggertie]

On 12/17/2025 at 6:18 PM, TheClimateChanger said:

 

This December has been insanely mild here in the Pacific Northwest. Can’t help but it’s a preview of what the typical December will be like in…2250? 

[TheClimateChanger]

 

[TheClimateChanger]

On 12/19/2025 at 12:51 AM, gallopinggertie said:

This December has been insanely mild here in the Pacific Northwest. Can’t help but it’s a preview of what the typical December will be like in…2250? 

2250? That seems rather optimistic.

[TheClimateChanger]

 

[tacoman25]

On 12/18/2025 at 10:51 PM, gallopinggertie said:

This December has been insanely mild here in the Pacific Northwest. Can’t help but it’s a preview of what the typical December will be like in…2250? 

Very persistent pattern. Something similar has happened before...1917 had an insanely warm and persistent pattern for the PNW/West. This one just looks a bit warmer and more persistent.

Don't tell the residents of Juneau, Fairbanks, or Whitehorse that this is what future Decembers will look like. All three are on track for one of their coldest Decembers on record.

[gallopinggertie]

8 hours ago, TheClimateChanger said:

2250? That seems rather optimistic.

It’s been 9 degrees above average here, do you really think winters will warm up that much before 2250?

[gallopinggertie]

3 hours ago, tacoman25 said:

Very persistent pattern. Something similar has happened before...1917 had an insanely warm and persistent pattern for the PNW/West. This one just looks a bit warmer and more persistent.

Don't tell the residents of Juneau, Fairbanks, or Whitehorse that this is what future Decembers will look like. All three are on track for one of their coldest Decembers on record.

The pattern isn’t unprecedented, but in the context of climate change, it’s hard not to look at things like this as previews of the future. Notice you said this is warmer and more persistent than 1917…as the years go by, these kinds of patterns will get more and moreso, until voila! Eventually a month like this won’t even be that out of the ordinary.

[GaWx]

6 hours ago, tacoman25 said:

Very persistent pattern. Something similar has happened before...1917 had an insanely warm and persistent pattern for the PNW/West. This one just looks a bit warmer and more persistent.

Don't tell the residents of Juneau, Fairbanks, or Whitehorse that this is what future Decembers will look like. All three are on track for one of their coldest Decembers on record.

And not surprisingly, Dec/Jan 1917-18 was (one of) the coldest in E US on record!

[chubbs]

Hunga Tonga volcano assessment report is out. Large effect on stratosphere but relatively small effect at surface: 

Professor Maycock said, "The Report shows that although water vapor is a greenhouse gas, Hunga had a net cooling effect overall and did not cause the record level of global warming observed in 2023 and 2024. This is a very important finding as understanding what caused the recent surge in global warming is a priority for the climate science community."

https://phys.org/news/2025-12-international-reveals-atmospheric-impact-hunga.html

https://juser.fz-juelich.de/record/1049154/files/Hunga_APARC_Report_full.pdf?version=1

[TheClimateChanger]

20 hours ago, gallopinggertie said:

It’s been 9 degrees above average here, do you really think winters will warm up that much before 2250?

Maybe not. I was looking more from an eastern United States perspective where many areas are warming by as 8-11F per century in December since 1970, but it looks like it's more 2-4F per century in the Pacific northwest.