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2019 Short/Medium Range Severe Weather Thread

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Perhaps for you up until now, but if that heat dome establishes itself and ridge rider Mesoscale convective complexes develop you may be sitting pretty in your location.

7 hours ago, hlcater said:

The local severe season has kinda sucked so far, not gonna lie.

 

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RGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED  
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 434  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK  
205 PM EDT SUN JUN 23 2019  
  
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A  
  
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF   
  SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL INDIANA  
  
* EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 205 PM UNTIL  
  800 PM EDT.  
  
* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...  
  SCATTERED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE  
  SCATTERED LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE  
  
SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE RAPIDLY NORTHEAST ACROSS THE WATCH  
AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH A RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED  
REPORTS OF LARGE HAIL.  

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Svr storms with the WF aiming ne now from sw IN.  I think this will be round one.  Round two and  more worrisome to me like Janet/Janet posted are the storms near St. Louis, southern Il and west KY moving ne that are more cellular rather than in a line.  80/70 here

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24 minutes ago, Indystorm said:

Apex of bow with the first line is targeting Brown County, Columbus, and Seymour areas.

IND issued a t-storm warning that ends at your back door. Looks like there could be some strong winds rolling through Indy that looks to run right up Pendleton Pike.

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24 minutes ago, IWXwx said:

IND issued a t-storm warning that ends at your back door. Looks like there could be some strong winds rolling through Indy that looks to run right up Pendleton Pike.

Will be watching and waiting.

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"Gilbert Sebenste (via spotternetwork.org) @ 19:43 UTC -- (S) Funnel -- -- Spotter is 1 miles SSW of DE KALB, IL (DeKalb county) [41.917/-88.762] -- Funnel cloud begin at 2:35 PM, starting to dissipate at 2:43 PM. I am looking at it 1 mile west-northwest of this location, on the underside of a towering cumulus cloud. Came halfway to the ground, before gradually lifting. Moving almost due north. Rope-shaped funnel with a pointed end; no debris on the ground noted; likely a landspout. Funnel has just lifted at 2:45 PM."

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Gust front hitting Fortville now.  Hope emergency management has everything secure at the ongoing Hancock county fair in Greenfield.

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Just a few small branches down here with briefly heavy rain.  My concern is for Cape Girardeau Mo and far southern IL with low and mid level helicity of 350-450 in that area per SPC site and tor warned cells in the region.l

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SPC has not been cancelling the watch in IN behind the line. They might be thinking the storms in S IL/MO will strengthen as they enter the western part of the watch area. Glancing at the vis satellite shows clearing behind this initial MCS.

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7 minutes ago, The_Doctor said:

SPC has not been cancelling the watch in IN behind the line. They might be thinking the storms in S IL/MO will strengthen as they enter the western part of the watch area. Glancing at the vis satellite shows clearing behind this initial MCS.

You're probably right about the reason that it's not being cancelled, but I believe that it's up to the local NWS office to cancel the Watch, although they may consult with SPC.

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
439 PM EDT SUN JUN 23 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0411 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 SSE FORTVILLE         39.93N 85.84W
06/23/2019                   HANCOCK            IN   911 CALL CENTER  

            NUMEROUS TREES AND POWER LINES DOWN ACROSS 
            FORTVILLE. 

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I'm on the nw side of Fortville and am amazed at how localized that report must have been.  Possible downburst?   All is calm here.

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3 minutes ago, IWXwx said:

You're probably right about the reason that it's not being cancelled, but I believe that it's up to the local NWS office to cancel the Watch, although they may consult with SPC.

Interesting, I always thought it was the other way around with the SPC consulting with the NWS office but ultimately having the final call. It makes more sense that the NWS office would cancel it

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15 minutes ago, The_Doctor said:

SPC has not been cancelling the watch in IN behind the line. They might be thinking the storms in S IL/MO will strengthen as they enter the western part of the watch area. Glancing at the vis satellite shows clearing behind this initial MCS.

This.    There is sporadic sunshine in southern IL between the line in IN and the line presently crossing the MS river near Cape Girardeau.  KFVS tv is live for that region.

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May have been a microburst just se of Fortville.  I did see a couple trees down and numerous large branches.  Amazing what a mile or two difference can make.  Yes, the watch may be cancelled for most of IN now, but I am still suspicious of a possible round two. Still in slight svr on latest day one convective outlook.  Clearing skies to my western horizon and in IL might allow just enough recovery to pop some additional storms.  500 mid level helicity in southern IL with some good shear.  Will have to wait and see what happens later this evening if anything.

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1 hour ago, The_Doctor said:

Interesting, I always thought it was the other way around with the SPC consulting with the NWS office but ultimately having the final call. It makes more sense that the NWS office would cancel it

From the latest SPC meso discussion, perfect timing, and a case where the local NWS re-instituted the watch perhaps? 
 DISCUSSION...The intensity of convection across WW 433 has decreased
   over the last 30-60 minutes in some area from western TN into
   eastern AR. Other areas, mainly western KY/southern IL and portions
   of southern AR, have increased in intensity. In the short term, WFOs
   PAH, MEG and LZK have addressed the continued strong wind threat
   will local aerial extensions as needed....
Further north, across western KY/southern IL, the line has been
   intensifying and surging eastward. This is likely being driven by
   the expansive cold pool across AR/MO as well as stronger deep flow
   in the vicinity of stronger forcing occurring with a weak shortwave
   impulse migrating across the mid-MS Valley region. This portion of
   the line may continue to produce damaging wind gusts and PAH has
   addressed this by expanding WW 433. A line of storms moved across
   parts of western/central KY early today, but recent observations
   show conditions have likely recovered somewhat across western
   portions of WFO LMK. This may require an additional watch later this
   evening depending on trends as the line approaches this previously
   disturbed airmass.

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SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY  
514 PM CDT SUN JUN 23 2019  
  
KYC139-143-157-232245-  
/O.CON.KPAH.TO.W.0055.000000T0000Z-190623T2245Z/  
LIVINGSTON KY-MARSHALL KY-LYON KY-  
514 PM CDT SUN JUN 23 2019  
  
...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 545 PM CDT FOR  
SOUTHEASTERN LIVINGSTON...CENTRAL MARSHALL AND LYON COUNTIES...  
      
AT 513 PM CDT, A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED 8 MILES NORTHEAST OF  
BENTON, MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH.  
  
HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO.  
  
SOURCE...PUBLIC CONFIRMED TORNADO.  
  
IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT   
         SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. DAMAGE   
         TO ROOFS, WINDOWS, AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR.  TREE DAMAGE IS   
         LIKELY.  
  
THIS TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...  
  EDDYVILLE AROUND 530 PM CDT.  
  
OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS TORNADIC THUNDERSTORM INCLUDE GRAND  
RIVERS AND KUTTAWA.  

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Some of the convection-allowing models show heavier storms in Cincinnati and Columbus tomorrow. The Ohio Valley area should have over 40 kt winds at 500mb, and convection should develop in some areas in OH and KY.

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Somehow all of us missed a big tornado that touched down in the South Bend / Mishawaka area this evening.  Lead story on WTHR from Indpls and of course the local South Bend stations.  Northern IN NWS will do the survey tomorrow.   But check out some you tube videos.    Amazing.   WTHR.com has some good photos and video.  I remember seeing the warning for rotation but didn't think much of it.   I have seen photos of a rope tornado and also a stovepipe.  Much more info to come tomorrow.  Hit near U.S. 20 bypass and Ironwood/Ireland road area on north.

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7 hours ago, Indystorm said:

Somehow all of us missed a big tornado that touched down in the South Bend / Mishawaka area this evening.  Lead story on WTHR from Indpls and of course the local South Bend stations.  Northern IN NWS will do the survey tomorrow.   But check out some you tube videos.    Amazing.   WTHR.com has some good photos and video.  I remember seeing the warning for rotation but didn't think much of it.   I have seen photos of a rope tornado and also a stovepipe.  Much more info to come tomorrow.  Hit near U.S. 20 bypass and Ironwood/Ireland road area on north.

I saw it happening but was too busy to post anything about it at the time. NWS didn't put out a warning until spotters reported a funnel cloud. It was right on the warm front.

Public Information Statement
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
1036 PM EDT Sun Jun 23 2019 /936 PM CDT Sun Jun 23 2019/

...Damage Survey Planned for South Bend Indiana Monday June 24...

A survey team will meet with St. Joseph County Emergency
Management officials on Monday June 24th to assess the extent of
the tornado damage near Ironwood and Ireland Roads as well as
adjacent areas.

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PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1130 AM EDT MON JUN 24 2019

...NWS DAMAGE SURVEY FOR 06/23/2019 TORNADO EVENT...

.OVERVIEW...
A SHOWER DEVELOPED OVER NORTHWESTERN MARSHALL COUNTY 
IN RESPONSE TO A NNE MOVING MCV. AS THIS SHOWER
MOVED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARDS TOWARDS THE CITY OF SOUTH
BEND IT ENCOUNTERED A RESIDUAL OUTFLOW FROM A PREVIOUS 
STORM EARLIER IN THE EVENING. THIS ADDITIONAL LOW LEVEL
FORCING ALLOWED THE STORM TO PRODUCE A BRIEF TORNADO 
WHICH FORMED SOUTH OF U.S. HIGHWAY 20 THEN MOVED NORTH 
BEFORE LIFTING JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE INTERSECTION OF 
IRONWOOD DRIVE AND INWOOD ROAD.   

.SOUTH BEND TORNADO...

RATING:                 EF - 2
ESTIMATED PEAK WIND:    115 - 125 MPH
PATH LENGTH /STATUTE/:  2 MILES
PATH WIDTH /MAXIMUM/:   200 YARDS
FATALITIES:             0
INJURIES:               0

START DATE:             JUN 23 2019 
START TIME:             838 PM EDT
START LOCATION:         2 ENE GULIVOIRE PARK 
START LAT/LON:          41.6211 / -862140

END DATE:               JUN 23 2019
END TIME:               848 PM EDT
END LOCATION:           3 WSW MISHAWAKA 
END_LAT/LON:            41.6501 / -86.2124

 

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