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General Severe Weather

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Should be a fun day tomorrow in the low country.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
This Evening: Latest EMC RAP analysis from SPC shows PWATS of
at least 2.25 inches pooling across Southeast GA bands of
convective rains persist, resulting in periods of heavy rains
with pockets of torrential downpours ongoing along the lower
Savannah River region of the forecast area. We will continue the
Flash Flood Watch in place on this update package.

Overnight, parameters are coming together for additional heavy
rainfall further up the coast as low pressure organizes along
the stalled front and propagates to the northeast. Strong moisture
convergence ahead of the low in the vicinity of the front coupled
with high PWATS and lingering nocturnal instability will support
a corridor of moderate to heavy rainfall extending from the
Georgia coast north into the Charleston Metro Area, including
Savannah and Beaufort. High resolution guidance are similar in
showing the heaviest rains falling in the Savannah to Charleston
corridor with general rainfall amounts of 2-5 inches with some
members showing amounts in excess of 6 inches. Although flash
flood guidance values are still somewhat high and D1-D2 drought
conditions linger, the high PWATS within a weak steering flow
environment suggest the resulting convection will be efficient
in rain production which could overtake the 1-hr and 3-hr flash
flood guidance values.

 

I have a feeling since we have escaped rain for the most part the last 3 day in mt pleasant that we could get hammered tomorrow.

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Soundings are a bit worrisome for NC tomorrow......latest 3k NAM suggest some discrete supercells and then a few MCS type bowing segments over central and eastern NC.......

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As of 500 AM Thursday...

A severe weather event is expected to unfold across the Carolinas 
this afternoon, with at least a couple of significant wind (65 kts 
or greater) and hail (2" or greater) reports possible. 

-------------------------------------------

645 AM EDT Thu Jun 20 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Thunderstorms are expected to intensify over the western Carolinas 
through midday. These storms will subsequently spread generally east
northeastward across central NC this afternoon and evening, with some merging
into fast-moving clusters with corridors of damaging wind gusts, and
others remaining discrete with large hail. Isolated wind gusts in
excess of 70 mph, and instances of hail larger than two inches in 
diameter, will be possible. Additionally, an isolated tornado cannot 
be ruled out.

The timing for severe weather appears greatest across the Piedmont 
between 2 PM and 7 PM, and across the Coastal Plain and Sandhills 
between 4 PM and 9 PM. 

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First watch coming soon.

 

mcd1159.gif

Mesoscale Discussion 1159
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1102 AM CDT Thu Jun 20 2019

   Areas affected...southeast Alabama...central and southern Georgia
   and South Carolina

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

   Valid 201602Z - 201800Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to develop by 17-18Z over a
   large part of the Southeast U.S. and increase in coverage and
   intensity during the afternoon, posing a risk for damaging wind and
   hail. A WW will probably be needed for a portion of this region by
   17Z.

   DISCUSSION...A moist warm sector resides over a large part of the
   southeast U.S.  with dewpoints around 70F and temperatures climbing
   through the mid 80s F as of 16Z. Latest objective analysis indicate
   MLCAPE around 1500-2000 J/kg and further destabilization will occur
   as the surface layer continues to warm. Water vapor imagery shows a
   progressive shortwave trough moving through the TN Valley, with an
   MCV also indicated over southeast TN/northern GA. A low-level
   confluence zone is forecast to evolve well inland from the coast
   from southern AL through southern GA. The combination of forcing for
   ascent associated with the MCV and progressive shortwave trough,
   surface layer destabilization and subtle boundaries, should promote
   warm sector initiation by early afternoon. While deep-layer wind
   profiles are unidirectional west southwesterly with small 0-1 km
   hodographs, a belt of 50 kt mid-level winds within the base of the
   trough is resulting in 30-35 kt effective bulk shear. This
   environment should support both multicell and some supercell
   structures with discrete modes eventually evolving into lines and
   clusters capable of damaging wind and hail.

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MD 1160 graphic

 Mesoscale Discussion 1160
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1123 AM CDT Thu Jun 20 2019

   Areas affected...North Carolina...Virginia...Maryland and Delaware

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

   Valid 201623Z - 201830Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to develop during the early
   afternoon posing a risk for damaging wind and hail. A severe
   thunderstorm watch will probably be needed by 18-19Z.

   DISCUSSION...The warm sector continues to destabilize over a large
   part of the Mid Atlantic region from North Carolina through VA and
   MD. Surface dewpoints around 70F and temperatures warming through
   the mid to upper 80s have boosted MLCAPE to 1500-2000 J/kg. WV
   imagery shows the primary shortwave trough over the TN Valley, but
   with an MCV moving through the southern Appalachians. These features
   are progressive, and the accompanying forcing for ascent along with
   boundary layer destabilization should result in an increase in
   thunderstorm coverage and intensity this afternoon. Wind profiles
   are unidirectional west southwesterly with 30-40 kt deep-layer flow,
   but modest 0-6 km shear generally less than 35 kt. This environment
   will support mostly multicell modes, but mid-level updraft rotation
   will also be possible in some storms. Activity may evolve into
   clusters and line segments with time posing a risk for damaging wind
   and hail through the afternoon into early evening.

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Got a feeling there will be a lot of reports like this throughout the rest of the day/night.

1 SSE Belews Creek [Forsyth Co, NC] FIRE DEPT/RESCUE reports TSTM WND DMG at 2:04 PM EDT -- SEVERAL TREES REPORTED DOWN AND IN ROADWAYS ACROSS THE WINSTON- SALEM AREA.

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And a few more of these...

Tornado Warning for...
  Northeastern Caswell County in north central North Carolina...
  South central Pittsylvania County in south central Virginia...
  Southwestern Halifax County in south central Virginia...

* Until 300 PM EDT

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Pretty good winds with the main line. I would guess mid 50s and got some long sustained gusts. On the south side of Greensboro.

I was stupid enough to leave my windows cracked even though I knew the rain was coming. Parked perpendicular to the winds too. :facepalm:

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12 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

Pretty good winds with the main line. I would guess mid 50s and got some long sustained gusts. On the south side of Greensboro.

I was stupid enough to leave my windows cracked even though I knew the rain was coming. Parked perpendicular to the winds too. :facepalm:

Yep, that line had a punch. A few exciting minutes with the winds.

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SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
309 PM EDT THU JUN 20 2019

NCC001-063-077-081-135-145-201930-
/O.CON.KRAH.SV.W.0094.000000T0000Z-190620T1930Z/
ALAMANCE NC-PERSON NC-ORANGE NC-GRANVILLE NC-GUILFORD NC-DURHAM NC-
309 PM EDT THU JUN 20 2019

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 330 PM EDT
FOR ALAMANCE...EASTERN PERSON...ORANGE...GRANVILLE...SOUTHEASTERN
GUILFORD AND DURHAM COUNTIES...

AT 309 PM EDT, SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM NEAR VIRGILINA TO 11 MILES NORTHEAST OF ROUGEMONT TO
GRAHAM, MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH.

HAZARD...70 MPH WIND GUSTS AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL. 

SOURCE...EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT REPORT NUMEROUS TREES AND POWERLINES 
DOWN ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA, ESPECIALLY 
PORTIONS OF PERSON COUNTY. 

IMPACT...HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. EXPECT CONSIDERABLE 
TREE DAMAGE. WIND DAMAGE IS ALSO LIKELY TO MOBILE HOMES, 
ROOFS, AND OUTBUILDINGS. 

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
DURHAM, CHAPEL HILL, BURLINGTON, GRAHAM, OXFORD, HILLSBOROUGH,
CREEDMOOR, CARRBORO, MEBANE AND BUTNER.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

STRAIGHT LINE WINDS CAN BLOW DOWN TREES, POWER LINES, AND DAMAGE
MOBILE HOMES AND OTHER BUILDINGS. SEEK SHELTER IN A STURDY STRUCTURE
UNTIL THE STORM HAS PASSED. STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AS FLYING DEBRIS
GENERATED BY DAMAGING WINDS CAN BE DEADLY.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS, AND MAY LEAD TO
FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS.

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Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
349 PM EDT Thu Jun 20 2019

NCC037-202000-
/O.CON.KRAH.SV.W.0096.000000T0000Z-190620T2000Z/
Chatham NC-
349 PM EDT Thu Jun 20 2019

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 400 PM EDT
FOR CHATHAM COUNTY...

At 349 PM EDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from near Butner to 6 miles north of Pittsboro to 8 miles
south of Siler City, moving east at 50 mph.

HAZARD...70 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Emergency management reports numerous powerlines down
         across the City of Chapel Hill.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect considerable
         tree damage. Wind damage is also likely to mobile homes,
         roofs, and outbuildings.

Locations impacted include...
Pittsboro, Siler City, Goldston, Crosswinds Boating Center,
Crosswinds Campground, Harpers Crossroads, Jordan Lake State Rec
Area, Bynum, Seaforth Boat Dock and Moncure.

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