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Kmlwx

2019 Mid-Atlantic Severe Wx - General Discussion

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Just now, losetoa6 said:

Charles town right? That warned storm must of just missed you to the nw?

the spotter report came from Inwood which is about 10 miles W of me although technically I'm in the same warned storm.

I had 25 minutes of 2" hail last May that damaged our roof, windows, screens, siding, and my car.  I never want to see hail in a storm again.

 

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1 minute ago, wxtrix said:

the spotter report came from Inwood which is about 10 miles W of me although technically I'm in the same warned storm.

I had 25 minutes of 2" hail last May that damaged our roof, windows, screens, siding, and my car.  I never want to see hail in a storm again.

 

I also got long duration hail here of quarter to ping pong last year . Glad my Grand national was in the garage lol

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power went out for a minute and now tremendous lightning and thunder that is repeatedly shaking the house.

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hail pictures from Inwood (friend's FB page):

 

inwood hail 1.jpg

inwood hail 2.jpg

inwood hail 3.jpg

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I will honestly take these non severe warned storms with lightning over the 15 minute severe warned wind and rain with no thunder. I missed thunder and lightning so much.

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6 minutes ago, Sparky said:

Good bit of thunder and lightning.

Yea..very vivid lightning.  There was a 0 time elapse between thunder and the strike one time at my Neighbors house a lil while ago .  I looked out and saw he turned his floods on . I guess everyone is ok . It shook the house . Probably 15 years since I've heard such a clap.

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I got a few mediocre looks at the earlier severe-warned hailer over Stephens City. Of course, the best views were from the highway when there was nowhere to stop -- that's how it always goes.

Hailing over Boyce, VA

DSC_0315_00001.thumb.jpg.1574ade887523b86b7498af3d928e35f.jpg

 

Storm east of Berryville, crossing over into WV. Severe warning cancelled at this time.

DSC_0318_00002.thumb.jpg.4045925bce22220b168820ac3026893c.jpg

DSC_0325_00003.thumb.jpg.2e75eaaecb59eeb3cec2f54cd61008c9.jpg

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10 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

94ewbg.gif?1556965774060

Mesos depicting some decent FGEN associated with a boundary at 850 mb. Looks like that is where the axis of heaviest rain will set up later tonight. Probably along I-95, and more towards NE MD and SE PA, and into SNJ.

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3 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Mesos depicting some decent FGEN associated with a boundary at 850 mb. Looks like that is where the axis of heaviest rain will set up later tonight. Probably along I-95, and more towards NE MD and SE PA, and into SNJ.

Yep..I saw that.  And 3k actually has 2 waves of low pressure come through.  First this evening and then tomorrow morning the stronger of the 2 with good FGEN as you mentioned tracks through.....with Baltimore on ne probably favored for heaviest . I bet someone gets crushed good with qpf if they get clocked by both waves 

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...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING...

The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a

* Flash Flood Watch for portions of Maryland, The District of
  Columbia, Virginia, and West Virginia, including the following
  areas, in Maryland, Anne Arundel, Carroll, Central and
  Southeast Howard, Central and Southeast Montgomery, Charles,
  Frederick MD, Northern Baltimore, Northwest Harford, Northwest
  Howard, Northwest Montgomery, Prince Georges, Southeast
  Harford, and Southern Baltimore. The District of Columbia. In
  Virginia, Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria, Clarke, Culpeper,
  Eastern Loudoun, Fairfax, Frederick VA, Greene, Madison,
  Northern Fauquier, Northern Virginia Blue Ridge, Page, Prince
  William/Manassas/Manassas Park, Rappahannock, Rockingham,
  Shenandoah, Southern Fauquier, Stafford, Warren, and Western
  Loudoun. In West Virginia, Eastern Pendleton, Hardy,
  Jefferson, and Western Pendleton.

* From this evening through Sunday morning

* Widespread showers will develop this evening along with possible
  thunderstorms and locally heavy rainfall is expected. Average
  rainfall amounts will be between 1 and 3 inches with locally
  higher amounts around 4 inches possible.

* Heavy rainfall in short periods of time may cause creeks and
  streams to rapidly rise out of their banks along with the
  potential for flash flooding in urban areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flash Flood Watch means that conditions may develop that lead
to flash flooding. Flash flooding is a very dangerous situation.

You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action
should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.

&&

$$

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was in harrisonburg last night for a graduation ceremony, which ended up getting postponed midway through due to the incoming storms.  we were on the south side of the main line, but still got some breeze, torrents, and a couple of legitimate lightning strikes.  drove home too late to catch the stuff as it made its way further east, but that's 2 decent storms in a week for me in early may.

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Depending on frontal passage timing, LWX in their afternoon AFD seems to think Friday afternoon could be our next chance for some severe weather 

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Anyone got where the EURO places the WF/stationary front on Sunday?  This tidbit is from the Day 3 SPC OTLK:

Quote
 It should be noted that the ECMWF model has the stationary front
   much farther north into VA with more pronounced shear east of the
   low. This solution suggests severe storms, including supercells, may
   affect parts of VA. Model trends will continue to be monitored in
   later updates. In addition, a lack of early day convection across
   AL/MS may indicate the need for a westward expansion of the Slight
   Risk area in later updates.

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9 minutes ago, 87storms said:

Today has sneaky potential.  Plenty of sun out now.

The 1630 SPC OTLK basically called today crap down here even with the MRGL risk still reaching us lol

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5 minutes ago, yoda said:

The 1630 SPC OTLK basically called today crap down here even with the MRGL risk still reaching us lol

forecasts for sun vs clouds has always been notoriously bad here, so i'm not too surprised.  i don't like that there's a breeze right now...always prefer a stagnant airmass for severe chances.  just hunch forecasting without science behind it.

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the hrrrrrrrrr has some activity moving through starting around 3-4pm.  we shall see...

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