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Ralph Wiggum

March 2, 2019 Snow Event Discussion

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Decided to just go ahead and make this thread since there was some confusion on where to discuss the event for tonight and early tomorrow morning.

Latest Hrrr and mesos have trended even colder yet again. Here is the Hrrr for this event which does not include current snowfall. It is all snow here now. Looks like 3-4" in my area of Bucks Co per this model.

hrrr_asnow_neus_25.png

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I had a feeling this one would sneak up even on SE PA. even the warmer models are only showing rain at 33-34. with the snowpack this morning, things could easily be a few degrees colder. good to see the mesos picking up on this.

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5 minutes ago, The Iceman said:

I had a feeling this one would sneak up even on SE PA. even the warmer models are only showing rain at 33-34. with the snowpack this morning, things could easily be a few degrees colder. good to see the mesos picking up on this.

I'm taking them one at a time, but how sweet would it be to wind up with snow from all 3 events!

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Battle of the mesos for tonight.  Hrrr is colder where it matters as is the 12k NAM. However the 3k NAM warms 850s quite a bit more and farther NW than 6z even with a better slp track. The 3k actually was colder thru about 11pm at 850mb vs the 6z run but then goes bonkers warming that layer subsequently. One would think the 3k should be handling thermals better so for now I am going to give it some credence yet raise an eyebrow to the colder solutions.

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1 minute ago, The Iceman said:

we just got NAM'd for tonight into tomorrow

 

namconus_asnow_neus_12.png

Why doesn't the surface map reflect that?  Am I missing something?

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Just now, JMcCaughey42 said:

Why doesn't the surface map reflect that?  Am I missing something?

imo the rates shown dynamically cool the surface so even though it shows rain on the map, it's actually heavy wet snow or sleet.

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Just now, The Iceman said:

imo the rates shown dynamically cool the surface so even though it shows rain on the map, it's actually heavy wet snow or sleet.

Got it, thanks! 

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I think the I-95 area will battle sleet and rain for the most part, although it's close. There's clearly a warm layer up top. For those 30 miles or so NW of Philly, it's going to likely be a wet isothermal bomb. However, if the I-95 area can cool the column enough, they could easily see a wet paste job. Temps are very marginal and it'll come down to snow rates and dynamic cooling aloft. 

snku_acc.us_ne.png

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1 minute ago, Newman said:

I think the I-95 area will battle sleet and rain for the most part, although it's close. There's clearly a warm layer up top. For those 30 miles or so NW of Philly, it's going to likely be a wet isothermal bomb. However, if the I-95 area can cool the column enough, they could easily see a wet paste job. Temps are very marginal and it'll come down to snow rates and dynamic cooling aloft. 

snku_acc.us_ne.png

Should be a batch of heavy stuff sliding SW to NE in Southeast PA shortly after 11pm-ish tonight. That will be what we should be watching to hopefully cool the column as you alluded to.

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5 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Hrrr coming in colder yet again so the trend for tonight continues. Good hit i95 corridor on N and W.

did you see the wrf meso's? all have 95 frozen throughout. war of the globals vs meso's. I think this has good bust potential especially if mt holly sides with the globals.

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Just now, Stormman96 said:

This doesnt look great to me

6928769D-3DED-4CA4-A4C5-D1404B78D40E.png

I meant the trend with models, not someone's forecast that will be catching up in this instance ;)  (at least thats my thoughts)

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34 minutes ago, The Iceman said:

did you see the wrf meso's? all have 95 frozen throughout. war of the globals vs meso's. I think this has good bust potential especially if mt holly sides with the globals.

I recall a March 13 storm (no not 1993 lol) I think in 2017 where we had a similar situation and the 12k NAM was the only one that had sleet and mixing very far NW. Majority shrugged it off as being out to lunch. Guess which verified? Yep the 12k. Other mesos had a monster snow hit but the sleet line punched W all the way to near Harrisburg iirc. Not calling for a repeat just saying the mesos arent always right. 

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16 minutes ago, hazwoper said:

the trend is your friend for tonight my friends ;)

Time for a trip to BK for a Whopper. You're on board....generally a good sign.

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I think it’s going to be very close here in Exton but starting to feel good about 2-3. 

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turned out to be kind of a dud here. Mostly sleet, and it never really got below freezing at the surface. Saw very little in the way of actual snow.

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Mainly a sleet storm but switched to heavy wet snow w/big flakes within the past hour. Unfortunately it's almost over...may eek out an inch .

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