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stormtracker

The March Long Range Discussion Thread, Winter's Last Stand

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1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

The gfs really is a disaster lol. Totally squashes everything.  No spacing between any of the waves.

The bigger concern to me is the trend at h5. The trough is digging less and coming in further east and more positively tilted lately. 

Honestly when I was looking at the 12z op euro at h5 I was thinking “I don’t really see how this wave is amplified enough to be significant”. There was nothing but flat progressive flow. 

There is still time and plenty of waves to work with but we need a trend towards one of these to be more amplified and more dig from the northern stream to start soon. 

Agreed and after I looked at the 12z gfs I didn’t want to say anything to bring the vibe down, but it looked squashy at h5.  I don’t think the upper level pattern has been ideal all year.  We’ve just gotten lucky with the progressive cold shots in an active pattern.  That might hold true over the next couple weeks as well.

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3 minutes ago, 87storms said:

Agreed and after I looked at the 12z gfs I didn’t want to say anything to bring the vibe down, but it looked squashy at h5.  I don’t think the upper level pattern has been ideal all year.  We’ve just gotten lucky with the progressive cold shots in an active pattern.  That might hold true over the next couple weeks as well.

The gfs is the worst model I wouldn’t make my forecast based on the gfs. Everything is on the air at this time

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This isn't pertinent to March but has anyone seen any long range Spring/Summer forecasts?  Just curious.  Wondering if El Nino will survive throughout the summer and what that will mean as far as the weather being generally wet or dry.  I refuse to believe we can have another summer like last year with that much rain but I guess stranger things have happened.  

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26 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

It's really hard not to like this Eps clustering at a day 6 lead.

 

Screenshot_20190226-202619_Chrome_crop_534x815.jpg

That from 12z?  If so there was a mix of south, hits, and north. Problem was the really amped up solutions that put down big totals (8”+) were all north and rain. It was depressing that most of the hits were pretty minor to modest snowfalls.  The members that amped up into a big storm pushed the snow nw of us. That kind of was a red flag that out potential might be limited with this. If it’s weak it might hit but if it amps up enough to give good precip it might go north. 

These progressive waves are annoying that way. It’s really hard to get crushed by them at our latitude. That’s why I liked the idea of the northern branch digging and phasing and something bombing up the coast later in the week. That scenario would have more potential to give a big storm. The early week storm seems capped at a moderate event and even that seems ambitious att. 

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13 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

That from 12z?  If so there was a mix of south, hits, and north. Problem was the really amped up solutions that put down big totals (8”+) were all north and rain. It was depressing that most of the hits were pretty minor to modest snowfalls.  The members that amped up into a big storm pushed the snow nw of us. That kind of was a red flag that out potential might be limited with this. If it’s weak it might hit but if it amps up enough to give good precip it might go north. 

These progressive waves are annoying that way. It’s really hard to get crushed by them at our latitude. That’s why I liked the idea of the northern branch digging and phasing and something bombing up the coast later in the week. That scenario would have more potential to give a big storm. The early week storm seems capped at a moderate event and even that seems ambitious att. 

I think it's 18z. More amped.

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@psuhoffman

Yep..12z .

I can't say I disagree with most of your points but this type of setup imo ...a wave riding a boundary is a classic 3-6" type setup for our area . Agree it's  most likely not a 8" plus hit . I also think being March...that even a weaker low can provide decent qpf for a moderate hit 4-8" ..which could juice up in short term . Overamped looks to be the minority for now but  its certainly a possibility..I agree.

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The next 10 days looks like a microcosm of the winter as a whole. A threat window with tight spaced mostly progressive waves. We nickel and dimes our way to climo in many areas of the sub forum. Hopefully we can finish strong.

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@losetoa6

Full disclosure I am big game hunting at this point.  I’m still 15” below climo and it’s been a weird year in that even locally up here I’ve been stuck in a hole. I’ve seemed to get less than even areas around me up here on several occasions.  Not used to that.  But more importantly I am a big storm fan and right now this winter has had the lowest single storm totals of every year I’ve been up here.  So another 3-5” snow has absolutely no appeal or interest to me. It wouldn’t change my perception of this year at all. It’s 8”+ or bust for me. I’ve had an 8”+ storm 8 years in a row and if this winter fails to achieve that it will feel like a failure to me. 

Keep in mind I’m more a big storm fan than just snow. I would rather a winter with 20” that all came in one big storm than a winter with 30” that fell 2-4” at a time. That’s just me.  I know most would go the other way on that but this winter has been my least favorite type.  All nickel and dime stuff here.  

So keep that in mind wrt my analysis. I think the odds of seeing snow in the next 2 weeks remains high. I think one of these waves will trend better. But I think the chances of an 8”+ storm took a serious hit the last 24 hours with the trend towards a much flatter trough. 

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I kind of figured you were looking big...its all good . I get it ...and I personally will take what I can get and if ...IF ... a big one becomes evident I'll be as giddy as  a school boy getting to first base lol.  We are due for a 1958 redux :whistle:

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2 hours ago, Danajames said:

This isn't pertinent to March but has anyone seen any long range Spring/Summer forecasts?  Just curious.  Wondering if El Nino will survive throughout the summer and what that will mean as far as the weather being generally wet or dry.  I refuse to believe we can have another summer like last year with that much rain but I guess stranger things have happened.  

It will likely be ENSO Neutral this year, +Neutral. I would expect slightly above average temperatures, and normal to above normal precipitation.

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6 minutes ago, Deer Whisperer said:

icon_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_fh114_trend.thumb.gif.52773030be62c787a0e2a2897f0224ab.gif

it's only fitting that the icon does the reverse of the GooFuS lol

Icon has been pretty good, recently.  Was the first to say no Sunday storm a few weeks back and wasn't too bad on the last storm.

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8 hours ago, Bob Chill said:

All of the possible threats remind me a lot of the late season pattern in 14&15. Clarity never came into focus until basically hr72 at best. Go back and read the disco threads. Flow is fast. Even if the euro or gfs or whatever showed a foot today I wouldn't trust a damn thing because we're always 1 run away from a big shift. 

I think we should keep this in mind over the next couple days. 

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Just now, BaltimoreWxGuy said:

Just not enough spacing between waves on gfs. Not looking great

Nope. Gfs has a wave on Sunday morning that isn’t there on other guidance. That wrecks the spacing and flattens the flow behind it. If that wave is real there is almost no hope for the Sunday night wave. But the gfs has been alone with that so far. 

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Nope. Gfs has a wave on Sunday morning that isn’t there on other guidance. That wrecks the spacing and flattens the flow behind it. If that wave is real there is almost no hope for the Sunday night wave. But the gfs has been alone with that so far. 
Fv3 looks so different lol

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4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Nope. Gfs has a wave on Sunday morning that isn’t there on other guidance. That wrecks the spacing and flattens the flow behind it. If that wave is real there is almost no hope for the Sunday night wave. But the gfs has been alone with that so far. 

It’s crazy how the models have been keying on different waves all winter. Whether it’s the complex pattern or not, the models have been kind of awful this winter. Is what it is 

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0z Icon and cmc are big rain storms Sunday night/Monday. 
Icon fv3 and cmc have big west to east storms. Icon had nothing at 12z and 18z.

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2 minutes ago, Ji said:
5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:
Nope. Gfs has a wave on Sunday morning that isn’t there on other guidance. That wrecks the spacing and flattens the flow behind it. If that wave is real there is almost no hope for the Sunday night wave. But the gfs has been alone with that so far. 

Fv3 looks so different lol

Gfs seems on another planet with that wave Sunday morning but across all guidance there is a trend that’s a big problem. The wave is coming in faster and that decreases the spacing but also it then rides north because the front doesn’t have a chance to sink south. Before it can make any progress south the return flow ahead of the next wave hits.  Good news is the moving parts are still shifting every run but let’s hope they don’t finally settle on this idea. 

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Gfs seems on another planet with that wave Sunday morning but across all guidance there is a trend that’s a big problem. The wave is coming in faster and that decreases the spacing but also it then rides north because the front doesn’t have a chance to sink south. Before it can make any progress south the return flow ahead of the next wave hits.  Good news is the moving parts are still shifting every run but let’s hope they don’t finally settle on this idea. 

Seems like it will be a tad too north or crushed/suppressed. We will fail in the middle lol

 

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