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NorEastermass128

Futility Thread - Winter 18/19

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Yes. I thought with the MJO and ENSO similarities in Fall, 1976-77 would briefly appear with incredible cold shots in the Midwest and East, and it was a convenient way to balance out 1994-95 doubled. My forecast will end up pretty decent for DJF even though I got February pretty wrong, since no on El Nino (my definition being >27.0C for an extended period centered on DJF in Nino 3.4) had that damned +9 SOI in December back to at least 1930, and there are no cold Februarys in the South with the SOI that high in December.

Albuquerque finished with above normal precipitation and a high of 48.1F, 6th or 7th coldest in 30 years. Will be curious to see if we get our first wet March in the southern 2/3 of AZ/NM since 2007. Looks promising to me.

Keep your eyes on that system coming through here around 3/3 - you had a 15 point SOI drop in late February. Even the Superstorm of 1993 had only a 25 point drop ahead of it in early March. 

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Boston is up to 16.6 inches through March 3rd. Boston, NYC and Philly all reported low snow ratios for the 3/3 snows they received with much of the snow falling above freezing.  

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4 hours ago, raindancewx said:

Boston is up to 16.6 inches through March 3rd. Boston, NYC and Philly all reported low snow ratios for the 3/3 snows they received with much of the snow falling above freezing.  

What?  BOS reported 2 inches of snow on 0.18 qpf on 3/2.  3/3 had 0.7 snow with 0.09 qpf as the current monster had just started.  Most locations around Boston are over a foot for ths event and counting.

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4 hours ago, raindancewx said:

Boston is up to 16.6 inches through March 3rd. Boston, NYC and Philly all reported low snow ratios for the 3/3 snows they received with much of the snow falling above freezing.  

The warmth was too strong here in NYC and also Philly.

Boston has to be around 7-10 inches by now.

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BOS with today’s 10.6 is up to 27.2.  Not that far from respectability.   We’ve actually had a steady diet of events beginning 2/17

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55 minutes ago, weathafella said:

BOS with today’s 10.6 is up to 27.2.  Not that far from respectability.   We’ve actually had a steady diet of events beginning 2/17

They are a front ender advisory event and a bowling ball away from average....obviously not easy to do, but we've seen it before plenty of times.

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1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Toss this thread where it always belonged..into the circular file.

That was my intent all along. Just didn’t expect it to run so long into the season. 

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Logan averages 43.8" using the 1981-2010 mean. At 26.5" through 3/4, there is about a 10% chance historically of getting to average numbers by May using the data from 1892-2018.

The storm snapped Boston much closer to my blend, so I was pleased to see that -

10/1-3/4 Boston Snow

1953-54: 21.1"

1976-77: 47.3"

1986-87: 36.3"

1994-95: 14.5"

1994-95: 14.5"

2006-07: 6.4"

Blend: 23.4" - damn near the actual of 26.5"

My hunch is there isn't much more snow for the NE from DC to Boston this year, but we'll see. Phase 2 of the MJO is pretty wet in the NE so wasn't too shocking to see the little reversion toward average. My blend had 35" for Boston, I assumed it'd be somewhat less, but it doesn't look too bad given that only 1/10 years will get to 44" from 26.5" on 3/4.

 

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5 hours ago, raindancewx said:

Logan averages 43.8" using the 1981-2010 mean. At 26.5" through 3/4, there is about a 10% chance historically of getting to average numbers by May using the data from 1892-2018.

The storm snapped Boston much closer to my blend, so I was pleased to see that -

10/1-3/4 Boston Snow

1953-54: 21.1"

1976-77: 47.3"

1986-87: 36.3"

1994-95: 14.5"

1994-95: 14.5"

2006-07: 6.4"

Blend: 23.4" - damn near the actual of 26.5"

My hunch is there isn't much more snow for the NE from DC to Boston this year, but we'll see. Phase 2 of the MJO is pretty wet in the NE so wasn't too shocking to see the little reversion toward average. My blend had 35" for Boston, I assumed it'd be somewhat less, but it doesn't look too bad given that only 1/10 years will get to 44" from 26.5" on 3/4.

 

As I said in the other thread, your snowfall call was probably on target.  Logan probably received 35-40 inches of snow but its constant undermeasurements since November have them off target (they are doing what JFK has been doing for years.)

 

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5 hours ago, raindancewx said:

Logan averages 43.8" using the 1981-2010 mean. At 26.5" through 3/4, there is about a 10% chance historically of getting to average numbers by May using the data from 1892-2018.

The storm snapped Boston much closer to my blend, so I was pleased to see that -

10/1-3/4 Boston Snow

1953-54: 21.1"

1976-77: 47.3"

1986-87: 36.3"

1994-95: 14.5"

1994-95: 14.5"

2006-07: 6.4"

Blend: 23.4" - damn near the actual of 26.5"

My hunch is there isn't much more snow for the NE from DC to Boston this year, but we'll see. Phase 2 of the MJO is pretty wet in the NE so wasn't too shocking to see the little reversion toward average. My blend had 35" for Boston, I assumed it'd be somewhat less, but it doesn't look too bad given that only 1/10 years will get to 44" from 26.5" on 3/4.

 

I think there is one more opportunity for snowfall near the end of the week

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10 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

They are a front ender advisory event and a bowling ball away from average....obviously not easy to do, but we've seen it before plenty of times.

No big coastals, which makes this more of a 07-08 type winter.  Caribou had the big storms this time around.

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19 hours ago, Snow88 said:

The warmth was too strong here in NYC and also Philly.

Boston has to be around 7-10 inches by now.

They are latitude impaired (for coastal areas) for late season events.  Things get much better at Boston's latitude.

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Tada - Boston analogs 

10/1-3/22:

1953-54 - 21.5
1976-77 - 56.9
1986-87 - 38.4
1994-95 - 14.8
1994-95 - 14.8
2006-07 - 15.5
Blend: 27.0"
2018-19: 27.4"
 

Historically, 10% of years will see 7"+ after 3/22 in Boston back to the 1890s.

 

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