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Holston_River_Rambler

December 8-10 Storm Discussion

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The RGEM got into the sauce that run. The low drifts Northwest for a few frames on it. Not sure why the Canadian suite over the last few days has tried to turn the system due north at times. This was even more extreme with the NW drift. 

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1 minute ago, John1122 said:

I'd love to get a storm with model agreement and no temperature issues just once. It seems like it's always something crazy for our forum.  It never used to be this hard. Miller A's did what they do. Sliders worked well. Clippers meant 2-3 inches and a day off school. It's crazy how tough it is these days.

Tracking storms...I think it is kind of like once you know what goes into bologna, you just never look at bologna quite the same way again.  

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That's the clown version of course. If you want a more honest snow total check pivotals snow depth map. It always tempers my expectations.

Oh of course, but it’s fun keeping track of what madness the clowns produce.

Realistically, my baseline for such low ratio storms is take the 10:1 clown and cut it in half, and stick to the low end!
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Anyway, the ICON looks really good for SWVA and TRI. It also comes with a nice surprise a little later for Middle Tennessee and the Plateau. I haven't seen the snow totals but it heavily resembles 18z. Next comes the GFS and CMC. EDIT on an added note the HRDPS (the high-res RGEM) is running as well though it only processes a map for SWVA, SEKY, and NETN.

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The lower res globals are moving beyond their usefulness now. The Euro and possibly fv3 still have some use as they are high res long range models I believe. At least through 240. At 9k the Euro is higher res than the 12k NAM and the RGEM. 

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1 minute ago, TellicoWx said:

Think GFS is still in left field, but also didn't like seeing the NAM speed up either

The NAM has been speedy all day too. It just does a better job capturing the true size of gulf precip shields in these situations. The American models were singled out by the WPC for being too progressive in their disco earlier today. They used the Euro/Ukie/GFES to make their last forecast.

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Some modeling is still holding onto the idea there is a second impulse in the flow that increases precipitation after the main event.  MRX even talked about having to keep their eye on it in their afternoon discussion.  If you swing and miss the first pitch, maybe you will get another chance with the second (assuming it’s a real possibility and not just model hallucinations, lol).

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2 minutes ago, tnweathernut said:

Some modeling is still holding onto the idea there is a second impulse in the flow that increases precipitation after the main event.  MRX even talked about having to keep their eye on it in their afternoon discussion.  If you swing and miss the first pitch, maybe you will get another chance with the second (assuming it’s a real possibility and not just model hallucinations, lol).

That happen in the February storm a couple of years ago. I remember NE Knox to Tri got about 3 additional inches the morning after the main event had moved out.

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CMC (fwiw) this late in the game looks great and is improved from 12z.  This is probably the last time it will be worth a mention. The HRDPS lays down the hammer even harder than it did last time but gives Russell county the middle finger for no apparent reason other than *BlunderStorm wants it to snow here*. It is finally time for the FV3 and Euro to cap us off for the night. As a bonus check out the RAP model on pivotal or wherever you view it. Apparently at 3z it runs 39 hours instead of the usual 21 hours. It's lackluster up here but good for Tennessee leaving a surprise for west tenn.

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Through 30 the FV3 is virtually identical to 18z.

Cannot remember the last time a mod held its ground this long like the V3 has.


.
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6 minutes ago, John1122 said:

Snow maps aren't out for it, but I figure they will be in the ball park of what they've been so far today. 

A tad higher totals in certain areas but overall it held serve at 0Z.   

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10:1 FV3 is 10-12 inches from Central Arkansas to the Plateau in a SW to NE orientation. From the Eastern Plateau to Tri its 12 to 16 inches. South of 40, east of Davidson it's 2-5 inches with 6 inch pockets all the way through with totals beginning to climb towards 9 inches near the Smokies and over a foot in the mountains. Take 30-40 percent off these for ratio purposes.

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Just now, BlunderStorm said:

When will NWS Morristown release an update?

If I were guessing, around 4-5 am. Usually they take extra long in these situations, waiting probably in the 06z NAM and some other 06 models to begin working things out.

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6 minutes ago, John1122 said:

10:1 FV3 is 10-12 inches from Central Arkansas to the Plateau in a SW to NE orientation. From the Eastern Plateau to Tri its 12 to 16 inches. South of 40, east of Davidson it's 2-5 inches with 6 inch pockets all the way through with totals beginning to climb towards 9 inches near the Smokies and over a foot in the mountains. Take 30-40 percent off these for ratio purposes.

Wow if that happened, that would really be amazing

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