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E PA/NJ/DE Winter 2018-19 OBS Thread

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The fv3 blows. It had a winter of yore this year if it was a decent model. Too bad none of it ever materialized.

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Let alone the 10 day long range pattern change that has YET to happen!  Temps forecast 50's -more rain by the weekend.  I wouldn't bet on any of that. It will most likely verify just like every event so far this winter...………..a mix to rain.  Until you tell me the Atlantic (-NAO) is cooperating, or the pattern HAS really changed, not biting--- but as always appreciate reading your discussions.  Just my amateur opinion.

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29 minutes ago, Lady Di said:

Let alone the 10 day long range pattern change that has YET to happen!  Temps forecast 50's -more rain by the weekend.  I wouldn't bet on any of that. It will most likely verify just like every event so far this winter...………..a mix to rain.  Until you tell me the Atlantic (-NAO) is cooperating, or the pattern HAS really changed, not biting--- but as always appreciate reading your discussions.  Just my amateur opinion.

Your pessimism is completely justified based on the last few months. However, the SOI is lowest neg SD today since early January. MJO is going into phase 8 and not in fantasy land. NAO is trending negative right now finally so that is a real thing. I guess like Santa seeing is believing. More wintry weather is on the way for our region over next few weeks.

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59 minutes ago, The Iceman said:

The fv3 blows. It had a winter of yore this year if it was a decent model. Too bad none of it ever materialized.

Has there really been one *reliable* model though? The Euro may have been worse than the FV3 with the head fakes in the LR tbh. Showed MECS/HECS many times this year. LR forecasts have been bad on models. The weekend threat is now medium range and the FV3 has done fair in that period. We'll see. Still think this is a DC South special with a fringe job here but we have a few things working in our favor for once so we'll see.

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ICON fringes us Saturday with the system riding along to our South then has a SECS Sunday night into Monday with another system right behind that towards and of range.

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GFS is a fringe Saturday but cane much farther than last run. Then has a SECS for Sunday and Sunday night. 1-2 punch like the fv3 and ICON.

Entering range now....both threats seem legit. Unicorn has arrived!

@The Icemanquick need a thread

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5 minutes ago, Newman said:

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_17.png

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_22.png

Perfect ull pass. Borderline MECS with the 2nd system. Wonder if one will steal the show from the other somehow or if they combine into 1 extended event? I suppose a scenario where both waves are just nuisance events is possible too though I dont put much stock into that scenario.

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Why the unbridled enthusiasm for the GFS run? First system is south, the second one has a primary in Pittsburgh so it's depiction of frozen is wrong it's a storm like today. Third storm is snow to rain and a lot of rain. 

That is winter of 2019 summed up in one week 

 

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1 minute ago, RedSky said:

Why the unbridled enthusiasm for the GFS run? First system is south, the second one has a primary in Pittsburgh so it's depiction of frozen is wrong it's a storm like today. Third storm is snow to rain and a lot of rain. 

That is winter of 2019 summed up in one week 

 

Lot of threats and cold air around, teleconnections getting better. I’ll take my chances over the crap we’ve dealt with the past few months. 

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6 minutes ago, RedSky said:

Why the unbridled enthusiasm for the GFS run? First system is south, the second one has a primary in Pittsburgh so it's depiction of frozen is wrong it's a storm like today. Third storm is snow to rain and a lot of rain. 

That is winter of 2019 summed up in one week 

 

Wow do you ever say anything positive? I must say I like you since you actually make me look good. Most people that know me tell me im the most negative person.  But you actually make me look positive and thats saying a lot

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Biggest storm of all brewing in the South at 384 on the GFS. Verbatim that would be the monster we' e been waiting on and a beautiful way to wrap up winter. Wont happen probably but man what a sick sick run thru the end and more.

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4 minutes ago, RedSky said:

DT doesn't like the next couple weeks i'm telling you curb your enthusiasm in the winter of azz

Look at today another utter train wreck 

 

 

Dt. Is no longer saying that. He admitted he was wrong.  Now likes possibilities 

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21 minutes ago, RedSky said:

Why the unbridled enthusiasm for the GFS run? First system is south, the second one has a primary in Pittsburgh so it's depiction of frozen is wrong it's a storm like today. Third storm is snow to rain and a lot of rain. 

That is winter of 2019 summed up in one week 

 

I get that this winter has sucked for you, but wow you have really gone off the deep end with these pessimistic posts. 

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27 minutes ago, RedSky said:

DT doesn't like the next couple weeks i'm telling you curb your enthusiasm in the winter of azz

Look at today another utter train wreck 

 

 

See his last update this AM. He apologized saying he was severely incorrect and to brace yourselves. Unicorn is here.

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24 minutes ago, Newman said:

I get that this winter has sucked for you, but wow you have really gone off the deep end with these pessimistic posts. 

We all have our moments but what was once silly and cute now has me legit concerned about his well-being.

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24 minutes ago, Newman said:

I get that this winter has sucked for you, but wow you have really gone off the deep end with these pessimistic posts. 

I have 2.2" for the winter and doubt there was a single ensemble member had me pegged for .5" frozen today how could i not be pessimistic lol

 

 

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9 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

See his last update this AM. He apologized saying he was severely incorrect and to brace yourselves. Unicorn is here.

HM just said no -NAO happening 

 

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Not worried about it. Whatever happens will happen. I see enough of a good pattern look moving forward that even minus a raging neg NAO we still have chance after chance. It beats being 60f and sitting on the beach. Take it as it comes. This HM person could be incorrect as much as me and anyone else. I've seen what I need to over the next 2 weeks+ of progs to keep me VERY vested going forward.

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3 minutes ago, RedSky said:

3 ensemble members are good for east central Jersey why am i not optimistic lol

 

GEFS.jpg

Also you live in eastern nj. You shouldnt even be expecting snow. Move nw if you want or expect snow

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5 minutes ago, Stormman96 said:

Also you live in eastern nj. You shouldnt even be expecting snow. Move nw if you want or expect snow

Can you explain that as family in Monmouth have beaten Qtown most years in snow amounts you don't know what you are talking about.

As I am moving to Kutztown i hope that is the case lol

 

 

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