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Will lower elevations near the lake shore transition over to all snow and if so what's the timing for this..will the lake effect winds veer more to a wnw flpw to get central/western oswego cty. Involved in the action?? Any thoughts would be much appreciated guys

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KBGM

Southern Cayuga-Onondaga-Madison-Southern Oneida-Cortland-Chenango-
Otsego-
357 AM EST Mon Nov 26 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

There will be a combination of snow from a slow moving low pressure
system and lake effect snow at times Tuesday and especially Tuesday
night through Wednesday. The potential exists for several inches of
snow accumulation, but there remains uncertainty for amounts and
locations. Monitor the forecast for updates.
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This is acting like such a spring event. The high res models are showing every oragraphic blip in the region. If you live above 600’ you’re looking good. Areas along the Ontario shore and plain look to do very poorly. 

This could easily change. We’re talking temp profile changes of 2-3F and everyone snows OR everyone rains. 

This low would be a lock for south shore if it was just a tad cooler. Honestly, this is the golden setup for KROC with a retro LP hanging near the dacks! Copious moisture! It’s gonna snow hard for 36 hrs and we might accumulate 2”.

Anyone with elevation gets it. Anyone on the lake plain- nobody really knows. 

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1 hour ago, rochesterdave said:

Do we have any posters who live on the Chattaqua Ridge?

There is someone who lives on top of the hill in Perrsburg who has been reporting from there for the last 20 years. I forget her name, but she is a regular that Don Paul keeps in contact with. I believe she had 275" last year, it is the sweet spot off of Erie. 

NE_Snow.png

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15 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

There is someone who lives on top of the hill in Perrsburg who has been reporting from there for the last 20 years. I forget her name, but she is a regular that Don Paul keeps in contact with. I believe she had 275" last year, it is the sweet spot off of Erie. 

NE_Snow.png

Lori dengert

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good read from KBGM

Main concern will be the combination of synoptic and lake snows
which could result in a fair amount of accumulation during the
midweek period, especially though not exclusively north of the
NY Thruway.

Upper low of the early week system will get hung up while
merging with another upper low which itself drops into the
western Great Lakes tonight-early Tuesday. The amalgamated
deeper single low will then persist over interior New England
through the short term period. Not only does this place our
region in gradual cold air advection and cyclonic flow, but also
there will be time for Atlantic moisture to wrap around the
system. Thus while temperatures will not be very cold, there
will be a combination of an extended duration of synoptic snow
and lake enhanced snow.

Higher terrain of Central New York, mainly north of the Southern
Tier-Catskills, could pick up 1-3 inches of snow during the day
Tuesday due to synoptic moisture and some contribution of Lake
Erie well upstream via 260-270 degree flow. However, northern
Oneida County is likely to get a more direct Lake Ontario
contribution as well along with orographic lift, so 2-4 inches
are more likely there initially Tuesday but plenty more with
time. Some uncertainty also that a convergence/lake enhanced
band could even get down to the NY Thruway corridor Tuesday
afternoon-evening; this will need to be monitored.

Enhanced lake effect continues Tuesday night into Wednesday as the
vertically stacked only slowly drifts east through New ENgland.
Atlantic moisture wraps more completely around the low and is
enhanced over the lake and lifted over the higher ground of
central NY. Air is cold enough for snow, but somewhat marginal
which will lead to some melting, especially during the day over
the lower elevations and on road surfaces. Still, precipitation
will be steady through the period and eventually lead to
moderate accumulations. Long duration snow accumulations for
Tuesday through Wednesday could easily be 6-10 inches or more in
northern Oneida County so in coordination with WFO Buffalo and
WFO Albany, a Winter Storm Watch has been hoisted there. It is
not out the question that Advisories will eventually be needed
for other zones to the south and west.

Northwest flow will be favorable for snow showers for much of
central NY into extreme northern PA, but as you get away from the
lake and in downslope areas, snow will be much lighter and result in
much smaller accumulations. Expect little change in conditions
through Wednesday into early Thursday.
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Wyoming-Chautauqua-Cattaraugus-Southern Erie-
Including the cities of Warsaw, Jamestown, Olean, Orchard Park,
and Springville
200 PM EST Mon Nov 26 2018

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM
EST WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy lake effect snow expected. Total snow accumulations
  of 10 to 20 inches expected in the most persistent lake snows.
  Winds gusting as high as 35 mph.

* WHERE...Wyoming, Chautauqua, Cattaraugus, and Southern Erie
  counties, mainly higher terrain.

* WHEN...From midnight tonight to 6 PM EST Wednesday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Travel could be very difficult to
  impossible. Areas of blowing snow could significantly reduce
  visibility. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning
  or evening commute.
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Still 44 degs with rain at KBUF. 

Niagara-Orleans-Monroe-Wayne-Northern Cayuga-Northern Erie-Genesee-
Livingston-Ontario-Allegany-
200 PM EST Mon Nov 26 2018

There will be a combination of snow from a slow moving low pressure
system and lake effect snow at times Tuesday and especially Tuesday
night through Wednesday. The potential exists for several inches of
snow accumulation, but there remains uncertainty for amounts and
locations.
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NWS going all in. I’m on the fence- surprise! If Syracuse gets a watch and they’ve coordinated, I bet Monroe and Wayne do to. But then again, SUR has a tiny bit of elevation. Don’t they? 

Its nearly a perfect setup for the south shore except for the marginal temps. I’m gonna have to get under the hood and start watching the 700 temps. Ugh. Looking at snowfall outputs is so much easier. 

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