mattny88 Posted November 26, 2018 Share Posted November 26, 2018 Will lower elevations near the lake shore transition over to all snow and if so what's the timing for this..will the lake effect winds veer more to a wnw flpw to get central/western oswego cty. Involved in the action?? Any thoughts would be much appreciated guys Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted November 26, 2018 Share Posted November 26, 2018 16 minutes ago, mattny88 said: How much snow is city of Oswego looking at guys??? Nobody knows right now. This is NOT a good set up for big Oswego snows. They will be battling warm air from the lake. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted November 26, 2018 Share Posted November 26, 2018 KBGM Southern Cayuga-Onondaga-Madison-Southern Oneida-Cortland-Chenango- Otsego- 357 AM EST Mon Nov 26 2018 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central New York. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight. Hazardous weather is not expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday. There will be a combination of snow from a slow moving low pressure system and lake effect snow at times Tuesday and especially Tuesday night through Wednesday. The potential exists for several inches of snow accumulation, but there remains uncertainty for amounts and locations. Monitor the forecast for updates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted November 26, 2018 Share Posted November 26, 2018 Almost every model blasts the Chautauqua Ridge with 18”+. That’s where the action is gonna be. Every damn model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 26, 2018 Share Posted November 26, 2018 It's a pretty nice snowfall for all, IF it accumulates sufficiently.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted November 26, 2018 Share Posted November 26, 2018 This is acting like such a spring event. The high res models are showing every oragraphic blip in the region. If you live above 600’ you’re looking good. Areas along the Ontario shore and plain look to do very poorly. This could easily change. We’re talking temp profile changes of 2-3F and everyone snows OR everyone rains. This low would be a lock for south shore if it was just a tad cooler. Honestly, this is the golden setup for KROC with a retro LP hanging near the dacks! Copious moisture! It’s gonna snow hard for 36 hrs and we might accumulate 2”. Anyone with elevation gets it. Anyone on the lake plain- nobody really knows. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 26, 2018 Share Posted November 26, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted November 26, 2018 Share Posted November 26, 2018 Do we have any posters who live on the Chattaqua Ridge? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted November 26, 2018 Share Posted November 26, 2018 You can see each mole hill on the WRF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 26, 2018 Author Share Posted November 26, 2018 1 hour ago, rochesterdave said: Do we have any posters who live on the Chattaqua Ridge? There is someone who lives on top of the hill in Perrsburg who has been reporting from there for the last 20 years. I forget her name, but she is a regular that Don Paul keeps in contact with. I believe she had 275" last year, it is the sweet spot off of Erie. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted November 26, 2018 Share Posted November 26, 2018 15 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: There is someone who lives on top of the hill in Perrsburg who has been reporting from there for the last 20 years. I forget her name, but she is a regular that Don Paul keeps in contact with. I believe she had 275" last year, it is the sweet spot off of Erie. Lori dengert 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted November 26, 2018 Share Posted November 26, 2018 Just now, Thinksnow18 said: Lori dengert I'm having a hard time thinking that where I live in Williamsville that I'm on on the 6-8" range. I'd be surprised if we received 2" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 26, 2018 Share Posted November 26, 2018 This part of the event not so fun lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 26, 2018 Share Posted November 26, 2018 This looks pretty good for tue night into wed on the NMM.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted November 26, 2018 Share Posted November 26, 2018 That's some super heavy SN!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted November 26, 2018 Share Posted November 26, 2018 I think we're supposed to eclipse the 40F mark but I'm holding on to the upper 30's at 37F! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted November 26, 2018 Share Posted November 26, 2018 Looks like the TUG is already snowing, at least on WeatherTap radar but I don't know how accurate it is with such things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted November 26, 2018 Share Posted November 26, 2018 20 minutes ago, CNY-WXFREAK said: Looks like the TUG is already snowing, at least on WeatherTap radar but I don't know how accurate it is with such things. Definitely snowing in Old Forge. http://www.oldforge.net/christys/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted November 26, 2018 Share Posted November 26, 2018 good read from KBGM Main concern will be the combination of synoptic and lake snows which could result in a fair amount of accumulation during the midweek period, especially though not exclusively north of the NY Thruway. Upper low of the early week system will get hung up while merging with another upper low which itself drops into the western Great Lakes tonight-early Tuesday. The amalgamated deeper single low will then persist over interior New England through the short term period. Not only does this place our region in gradual cold air advection and cyclonic flow, but also there will be time for Atlantic moisture to wrap around the system. Thus while temperatures will not be very cold, there will be a combination of an extended duration of synoptic snow and lake enhanced snow. Higher terrain of Central New York, mainly north of the Southern Tier-Catskills, could pick up 1-3 inches of snow during the day Tuesday due to synoptic moisture and some contribution of Lake Erie well upstream via 260-270 degree flow. However, northern Oneida County is likely to get a more direct Lake Ontario contribution as well along with orographic lift, so 2-4 inches are more likely there initially Tuesday but plenty more with time. Some uncertainty also that a convergence/lake enhanced band could even get down to the NY Thruway corridor Tuesday afternoon-evening; this will need to be monitored. Enhanced lake effect continues Tuesday night into Wednesday as the vertically stacked only slowly drifts east through New ENgland. Atlantic moisture wraps more completely around the low and is enhanced over the lake and lifted over the higher ground of central NY. Air is cold enough for snow, but somewhat marginal which will lead to some melting, especially during the day over the lower elevations and on road surfaces. Still, precipitation will be steady through the period and eventually lead to moderate accumulations. Long duration snow accumulations for Tuesday through Wednesday could easily be 6-10 inches or more in northern Oneida County so in coordination with WFO Buffalo and WFO Albany, a Winter Storm Watch has been hoisted there. It is not out the question that Advisories will eventually be needed for other zones to the south and west. Northwest flow will be favorable for snow showers for much of central NY into extreme northern PA, but as you get away from the lake and in downslope areas, snow will be much lighter and result in much smaller accumulations. Expect little change in conditions through Wednesday into early Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flying MXZ Posted November 26, 2018 Share Posted November 26, 2018 32 minutes ago, CNY-WXFREAK said: Looks like the TUG is already snowing, at least on WeatherTap radar but I don't know how accurate it is with such things. A couple snowflakes viable on NorthernChateau: http://www.northernchateau.com/northernchateau.htm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted November 26, 2018 Share Posted November 26, 2018 Snowing heavily in Lowville! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cny rider Posted November 26, 2018 Share Posted November 26, 2018 The change over to snow already on the Tug is encouraging but I'm still betting big on the under for this event. Just too warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 26, 2018 Author Share Posted November 26, 2018 Wyoming-Chautauqua-Cattaraugus-Southern Erie- Including the cities of Warsaw, Jamestown, Olean, Orchard Park, and Springville 200 PM EST Mon Nov 26 2018 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY... * WHAT...Heavy lake effect snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 10 to 20 inches expected in the most persistent lake snows. Winds gusting as high as 35 mph. * WHERE...Wyoming, Chautauqua, Cattaraugus, and Southern Erie counties, mainly higher terrain. * WHEN...From midnight tonight to 6 PM EST Wednesday. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible. Areas of blowing snow could significantly reduce visibility. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning or evening commute. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 26, 2018 Author Share Posted November 26, 2018 Still 44 degs with rain at KBUF. Niagara-Orleans-Monroe-Wayne-Northern Cayuga-Northern Erie-Genesee- Livingston-Ontario-Allegany- 200 PM EST Mon Nov 26 2018 There will be a combination of snow from a slow moving low pressure system and lake effect snow at times Tuesday and especially Tuesday night through Wednesday. The potential exists for several inches of snow accumulation, but there remains uncertainty for amounts and locations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted November 26, 2018 Share Posted November 26, 2018 NWS going all in. I’m on the fence- surprise! If Syracuse gets a watch and they’ve coordinated, I bet Monroe and Wayne do to. But then again, SUR has a tiny bit of elevation. Don’t they? Its nearly a perfect setup for the south shore except for the marginal temps. I’m gonna have to get under the hood and start watching the 700 temps. Ugh. Looking at snowfall outputs is so much easier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted November 26, 2018 Share Posted November 26, 2018 It’s more surface temps I think. Ratios. 700 looks ok. 850 marginal. 2 meter is rough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted November 26, 2018 Share Posted November 26, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 26, 2018 Share Posted November 26, 2018 Maybe the NWS wasn’t so far off about Tuesday night.. 12z hrdps till 7am Wednesday morning and still snowing.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 26, 2018 Share Posted November 26, 2018 ARW2 and NMM up to 12z wed.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted November 26, 2018 Share Posted November 26, 2018 18z NAM is warm. One run. Did EURO look ok Wolfie? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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