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PrinceFrederickWx

Mid-Atlantic winter 2018-19 snowfall contest

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14 minutes ago, PrinceFrederickWx said:

Starting next year the new rule is gonna be: if you forfeit, you can’t come back. Your name gets scrubbed from the spreadsheet. :lol:

Lol.....to the supreme court!!

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51 minutes ago, PrinceFrederickWx said:

Starting next year the new rule is gonna be: if you forfeit, you can’t come back. Your name gets scrubbed from the spreadsheet. :lol:

If I pay you a little under the table can I get you to scrub me and my guesses from the last two years? They are kind of embarrassing to be honest. :poster_oops:

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2 hours ago, showmethesnow said:

If I pay you a little under the table can I get you to scrub me and my guesses from the last two years? They are kind of embarrassing to be honest. :poster_oops:

Yeah I’ll expunge the records- meet me out back tonight. $1,000, all in $20’s. Make sure no one follows you. :ph34r: :lol:

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I have also updated my various tables, the RIC-oriented tracker was posted Dec 12, DCA-oriented Jan 13, snowfall required Jan 14 (all on page 5 of thread), and a more recent update of top ten snowfall required plus "one storm club" on page seven which is updated ... the one storm club info remains the same because I shaved the small amounts reported yesterday off the hypothetical storm so the results after that have not been altered. 

Some time later in the contest I will move my tables towards the current discussion but with these small changes nothing much has changed in those tables. 

Looking at the current GFS run you can see potential for more than 10" of snow in total towards the end of the period, but of course that's often scaled back to small amounts closer to the time. I really don't think anyone down the table is really out of contention yet though, the bottom five might be perhaps. I ran this program on my excel file to see what ranges of snowfall might be good for various forecasts. The program uses ratios of 1.0, 0.8, 1.2 and 0.4 for the four locations (in order, BWI, DCA, IAD, RIC). So for example, there could be 10, 8, 12 and 4 inches additional snowfall. Or there could be any other multiple. This is how it works out as to who wins the contest (but of course the actual snowfall might not follow that ratio) when you add various multiples to the existing snowfalls. I tested for each increase of one inch at BWI and various other amounts by ratio. Then I identified the break points. 

(1) From a very small increase to BWI 2.9" RodneyS maintains a lead. (RodneyS currently in second to MNT but small amounts using my ratios would change 1st and 2nd).

(2) Around 3" BWI weather 53 and stormPC are almost tied, but stormPC edges ahead after 3.2" and holds a lead until BWI reaches almost 8" ... however from 7 to 8 inches at BWI, there is a virtual four-way tie with PrinceFrederickwx, NorthArlington101 and Millvillewx all within 0.2" of stormPC and each other at various points. 

(3) NorthArlington101 holds a lead from about BWI 9" to 13.5" then both NorthBaltiZen and mappy edge ahead, with mappy in the lead around 15 inches for BWI (and the ratios etc).

(4) From 15 to 18 inches, mappy, cobalt and OnceinaLifetime2009 are all close to the lead then by 20" BWI, Once is well out in front, but is caught by southMDwatcher around 22.2" BWI.

(5) At amounts greater than 25" budice and then winterwxluvr come into lead positions, and by 35 to 40 inches it would be the few even higher forecasts winning out. 

All of the above shows that storm ratio will be important as various station to station ratios will eliminate large numbers of the field from contention. Of course, your best bet is to hit your numbers right on, whatever ratios that might require. (sorry, negative ratios will not verify). ;)

 

 

 

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2 hours ago, PrinceFrederickWx said:

It’s interesting to me that @MN Transplant and @RodneyS - -the two biggest stat guys in the extreme run thread- are currently winning this. Was there anything leading into this winter that gave you both pause?

Well, winning with ~a month of potential winter still to go isn't that impressive.  The leaderboard will look different by Wednesday evening, I'd guess.  With so many people going high, it seemed that the safer bet was closer to climo.  So, I was playing the board as much as playing the game.

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10 hours ago, MN Transplant said:

Well, winning with ~a month of potential winter still to go isn't that impressive.  The leaderboard will look different by Wednesday evening, I'd guess.  With so many people going high, it seemed that the safer bet was closer to climo.  So, I was playing the board as much as playing the game.

 

13 hours ago, PrinceFrederickWx said:

It’s interesting to me that @MN Transplant and @RodneyS - -the two biggest stat guys in the extreme run thread- are currently winning this. Was there anything leading into this winter that gave you both pause?

In my case, you're correct -- my snow forecasts were based significantly on historical averages for weak El Nino winters.  

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On 2/18/2019 at 7:27 AM, PrinceFrederickWx said:

Wednesday will almost certainly be a game-changer unless there’s a total bust.

And don't forget about our new big snow month of March afterwards.

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Here's the totals I have:

BWI: 15.6"

DCA: 16.6"

IAD: 24.9"

RIC: 13.1"

Top ten list is attached (those who have been mathematically eliminated are grayed out).  Look at that top three now- @Stormpc is in the lead, with Rodney and Olaf just 0.1" and 0.4" behind- close game!

Myself, nw baltimore wx and Bob Chill have now entered the top ten.

top ten.JPG

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1 hour ago, PrinceFrederickWx said:

Here's the totals I have:

BWI: 15.6"

DCA: 16.6"

IAD: 24.9"

RIC: 13.1"

Top ten list is attached (those who have been mathematically eliminated are grayed out).  Look at that top three now- @Stormpc is in the lead, with Rodney and Olaf just 0.1" and 0.4" behind- close game!

Myself, nw baltimore wx and Bob Chill have now entered the top ten.

top ten.JPG

I think the odds are better than 50-50 that either Stormpc, olafminesaw, or Bob Chill wins. I'm in the sad position of "so near, and yet so far."

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25 minutes ago, RodneyS said:

I think the odds are better than 50-50 that either Stormpc, olafminesaw, or Bob Chill wins. I'm in the sad position of "so near, and yet so far."

You would need at least 4.5" at BWI to win outright (4.6" if you assume DCA gets snow at the same time). You actually have a bit of a cushion at IAD since most of the leaderboard has busted on it. The key for you is making sure RIC gets shut out in the process. You have an outside chance, but it's definitely not impossible.

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6 minutes ago, PrinceFrederickWx said:

@nj2va

Tried to get this all in one screenshot- RIC Airport is a little cut off at the bottom but he's the last place one.

If you click on the picture, it should pop up bigger on your screen to read better (at least it does for me)

 

full listing.JPG

Well I see why osfan24 is upset with this winter now

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7 minutes ago, PrinceFrederickWx said:

@nj2va

Tried to get this all in one screenshot- RIC Airport is a little cut off at the bottom but he's the last place one.

If you click on the picture, it should pop up bigger on your screen to read better (at least it does for me)

Thanks!  I forgot how high I went with my predictions...the 2 BECS we get in March will get me close to the top.

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