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Roger Smith

November 2018 temperature forecast contest and Regional Rumble, winter snowfall contest added

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With the contests incredibly tight (range is very small from about first to tenth places) and the Regional Rumble turning into a three-way fight to the finish, we have two forecasts left, and this month we add the annual winter snowfall contest. As per last winter, I will substitute DTW, BUF and BTV for three southern locations that see little snow (usually). 

For the temperature contest, predict the anomaly (F deg) for these nine stations:

DCA _ NYC _ BOS ___ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ____ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

and for the snowfall contest, the forecast should be for the entire winter season including what has already fallen (at DEN about 4" last check), and you have until mid-November to submit this or edit it later.

DCA _ NYC _ BOS ___ ORD _ DTW _ BUF ___ DEN _ SEA _ BTV

We'll say end of Nov 15th as a deadline for the snowfall contest and I will send reminders. Anyone who just wants to enter that and skip the temperature contest is welcome to join in. 

Good luck (temp forecast due 06z Nov 1, late penalties after that time). 

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DCA +1.2 13.2"

NYC +1.0 34.3"

BOS +0.8 53.5"

ORD +0.5 33.5"

ATL +1.9 DTW 47"

IAH +1.2 BUF 87"

DEN -0.8 37"

PHX -1.1 BTV 97"

SEA -1.2 10.7"

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DCA +3.0  33"

NYC +3.0  54"

BOS +3.0 70"

ORD +1.0. 30"

ATL +2.5    DTW 38"

IAH +2.0   BUF  100"

DEN +1.0  65"

PHX +1.0   BTV 100"

SEA 0.0   6"

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DCA +1.6   26.3"

NYC +1.7   56.4"

BOS +1.9   65.6"

ORD +0.7   29.6"

ATL +1.8   DTW 41.6"

IAH +2.2   BUF  95.2"

DEN -0.2   62.3"

PHX -0.2   BTV  89.6"

SEA  -0.5   1.9"

 

Philly 

 



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I will need to send the four who already posted a p.m. about the snowfall contest, but later entrants, please note:

ATL to be replaced by DTW

IAH to be replaced by BUF

PHX to be replaced by BTV

(so we have some places that actually get snow :) )

this was in the welcome post but I realize many just take the post before theirs and follow on from that. 

Thanks -- Kontestman. 

(I will thank posts when I believe they show the appropriate snowfall predictions, that's just for my own quick recognition of follow-up later -- looks like the later guys saw this)

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DCA _ NYC _ BOS ___ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ____ DEN _ PHX _ SEA  

1.0       1.0      0.5        0.5      1.0    1.0         0.5      1.0     0.5 

DCA _ NYC _ BOS ___ ORD _ DTW _ BUF ___ DEN _ SEA _ BTV

25"     42"      75"       70"      80"      120"       75"    10"   85" 

 

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1 hour ago, Scotty Lightning said:

DCA _ NYC _ BOS ___ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ____ DEN _ PHX _ SEA  

1.0       1.0      0.5        0.5      1.0    1.0         0.5      1.0     0.5 

DCA _ NYC _ BOS ___ ORD _ DTW _ BUF ___ DEN _ SEA _ BTV

25"     42"      75"       70"      80"      120"       75"    10"   85" 

 

I know some people who would lose their minds if we got 80" of snow, would be the 2nd snowiest winter on record for DTW.

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DCA _ NYC _ BOS ___ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ____ DEN _ PHX _ SEA  

+1.9   +1.7   +1.2     - 0.8    +2.0   +1.8      - 0.5   +1.2   +2.1 

DCA _ NYC _ BOS ___ ORD _ DTW _ BUF ___ DEN _ SEA _ BTV

25"     47"      52"       49"      51"      83"       57"    13"      77" 

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DCA _ NYC _ BOS ___ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

2.6     2.5      2.0         2.5      2.6     1.4        2.7      1.7     2.2

DCA _ NYC _ BOS ___ ORD _ DTW _ BUF ___ DEN _ SEA _ BTV

32.5"  50.0"  57.5"      48.5"   53.5"   110.0"    52.0"  3.5"    93.0" 

 

NYC Metro Subforum

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DCA:  +1.8 24”

NYC:  +1.8  55”

BOS:  +1.9 71”

ORD:  +0.2  35”

ATL:  +0.4 39” (DTW)

IAH:  +0.4  78” (BUF)

DEN:  +1.9  60”

PHX:  +1.8   78” (BTV)

SEA:  +1.5 18”

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+1.0 _ +1.0 _ +0.8 __ +0.8 _ +2.0 _ +1.5 __ +2.0 _ +2.0 _ +2.2

18.0" _28.0" _45.0" __ 30.5"_ 35.5"_ 90.0" __ 60.5" _ 78.0" _ 10.0"

DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL/DTW_IAH/BUF _DEN_PHX/BTV _ SEA

Good luck everyone, contests are very very close

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DCA _ NYC _ BOS ___ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

3.5     2.9      2.4         0.0      0.0     0.0       -1.5     3.7     1.9

DCA _ NYC _ BOS ___ ORD _ DTW _ BUF ___DEN _ SEA _ BTV

12.5"  25.0"  37.5"      41.0"   43.5"   89.0"     52.5"  4.5"   73.0" 

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Table of forecasts for November 2018

 

_ No late penalties so far, Jaxjagman has not entered yet.

 

FORECASTER ______________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS ___ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA 

RodneyS __________________ +3.5 _+2.9 _+2.4 ___ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ___--1.5 _+3.7 _+1.9

RJay ______________________+3.0 _+3.0 _+3.0 __ +1.0 _+2.5 _+2.0 ___+1.0 _+1.0 __ 0.0

DonSutherland.1 ____________+2.6 _+2.5 _+2.0 __ +2.5 _+2.6 _+1.4 ___+2.7 _+1.7 _+2.2

hudsonvalley21 _____________+2.2 _+2.2 _+2.4 __ +1.4 _+1.9 _+1.1 ___ +1.2 _+1.3 _--0.2

dmillz25 ___________________+2.0 _+2.2 _+2.5 __ +1.0 _+1.0 _+1.1 ___--1.5 _+1.0 __0.0

wxallannj __________________+1.9 _+1.7 _+1.2 __ --0.8 _+2.0 _+1.8 ___--0.5 _+1.2 _+2.1

 

___ Consensus _____________ +1.9 _+1.8 _+2.0 __ +0.7 _+1.9 _+1.2 ___+0.8 _+1.3 _+0.7 

 

BKViking __________________ +1.8 _+1.8 _+1.9 __ +0.2 _+0.4 _+0.4 ___+1.9 _+1.8 _+1.5

wxdude64 _________________ +1.6 _+1.8 _+2.1 __ +0.6 _+1.6 _+1.3 ___+1.8 _+2.1 _+0.9

Tom ______________________ +1.6 _+1.7 _+1.9 __ +0.7 _+1.8 _+2.2 ___--0.2 _--0.2 _--0.5

Stebo ____________________ +1.2 _+1.0 _+0.8 __ +0.5 _+1.9 _+1.2 ___--0.8 _--1.1 _--1.2

Roger Smith _______________ +1.0 _+1.0 _+0.8 __ +0.8 _+2.0 _+1.5 ___+2.0 _+2.0 _+2.2

Scotty Lightning _____________+1.0 _+1.0 _+0.5 __ +0.5 _+1.0 _+1.0 ___+0.5 _+1.0 _+0.5

___ Normal _________________ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ___ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ___ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0

__________________________________________________

Color codes show warmest and coldest forecasts -- Normal is colder at DCA, NYC, BOS, and equal for ATL, IAH.

Snowfall contest will be posted after 15th -- you can edit until then if you want. 

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Anomaly tracker and forecasts after seven days ...

 

____________________________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS ___ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

___________ (7d) ____________ +4.5 _+5.6 _+7.3 ___--1.5 _+1.2 _+3.4 ___--2.1 _+0.9 _+5.9

 

_________ (p 14d) ____________+1.0 _+1.3 _+1.8 ___--6.0 _--3.5 _--3.0 ___--4.7 _--1.2 _+2.0

 

_________ (p 24d) ____________ +2.0 _+2.0 _+2.0 ___--2.0 __0.0 _+0.5 ___--1.0 __0.0 _+0.5

 

8th _ Much colder next week in most of the country, but the interval 15th to 24th on the GFS appears somewhat warmer than average for most,

__ __ __ have estimated about +3 to +5 for the period, which brings most of the large negatives created next week back towards normal in central regions.

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