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WEATHER53

KA and Wx53 Winter Outlook

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KA-

Temps-above average, ranging +1 to +2 monthly

snowfall-below average, 12” at DCA

This is actually not bad from him 2016-17 he went 5” and last year 8” and in 2016-17 went +5 on temps for two out of three months 

I don’t have the analogs yet 

 

 

Weather 53 Outlook

Temps

Dec:0 to +1

Jan:-2.5

Feb:0 to -1

Snowfall: 15” at DCA and 18-22 for IAD, BWI.

10-1/18-Neant  to have written  that think we will turn dry for Oct and Nov then back to above average for DJF.

My primary analog years are 1964-65 and 1969-70. I found the analog years unusually easy to pick

Keith and I are pretty far apart on temps and rather close  for snowfall 

 

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28 minutes ago, Tenman Johnson said:

KA-

Temps-above average, ranging +1 to +2 monthly

snowfall-below average, 12” at DCA

This is actually not bad from him 2016-17 he went 5” and last year 8” and in 2016-17 went +5 on temps for two out of three months 

I don’t have the analogs yet 

 

 

Weather 53 Outlook

Temps

Dec:0 to +1

Jan:-2.5

Feb:0 to -1

Snowfall: 15” at DCA and 18-22 for IAD, BWI.

My primary analog years are 1964-65 and 1969-70. I found the analog years unusually easy to pick

Keith and I are pretty far apart on temps and rather close  for snowfall 

 

Interesting from my days back at Eastern Weather and before then Wright Weather, ( ages ago ) KA was on a roll for a few years . DT brought him more so into the public eye I think. 

Doesn't KA use observed weather events up to this point in the DC area for  his foirecasts ?  I thought KA did not use analogs??   Regardless , I think it is really hard to make a forecast  this early.   

Seems he and Weather 53 are at odds with temps.  As for Weather 53's analog set I have not heard those years yet being thrown out by many.   

I think this year with a gun held to my head there is no middle ground , I think it is either going to be cold and snowy or warm and wet , or even the potential for warm and dry despite the El Nino. 

These days seems the weather wants to go one way or another. 

 

 

 

 

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Thanks for sharing the forecasts.  Like yours better.  1969-70 was a 40" winter in this area.  January 1970 was a top 5 month all-time for cold here.  Would love a repeat of that winter.

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On 9/24/2018 at 3:36 PM, WVclimo said:

Thanks for sharing the forecasts.  Like yours better.  1969-70 was a 40" winter in this area.  January 1970 was a top 5 month all-time for cold here.  Would love a repeat of that winter.

Same here in the Cumberland gap area. Extremely cold and snowy January following a 10 inch Christmas Snowfall.

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Cosgrove thinks mild Dec, around average Jan, very cold February continuing into March.

I asked him about my 12-15”and Keith’s 12 and he thought a bit higher.

have Isotherm or Matt put anything out?

 

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I think low pressure patterns are showing their hand. Mostly  lake cutters, a few phase jobs that never work anyway, infrequent well placed coastal. This is why I do not see the big snow season for DC area. 

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14 minutes ago, Tenman Johnson said:

I think low pressure patterns are showing their hand. Mostly  lake cutters, a few phase jobs that never work anyway, infrequent well placed coastal. This is why I do not see the big snow season for DC area. 

Already? Is there a correlation between cutters going into Dec and cutters the rest of the winter?... I mean...does having rainy coastal in the fall have any bearing for the propensity for snowy ones later on? 

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On 11/26/2018 at 2:24 PM, WEATHER53 said:

I think low pressure patterns are showing their hand. Mostly  lake cutters, a few phase jobs that never work anyway, infrequent well placed coastal. This is why I do not see the big snow season for DC area. 

So far, this prediction has been spot on!  Lots of west tracks and lake cutters.  Still hoping that we can turn things around for the last part of winter!

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On 9/24/2018 at 1:45 PM, WEATHER53 said:

KA-

Temps-above average, ranging +1 to +2 monthly

snowfall-below average, 12” at DCA

This is actually not bad from him 2016-17 he went 5” and last year 8” and in 2016-17 went +5 on temps for two out of three months 

I don’t have the analogs yet 

 

 

Weather 53 Outlook

Temps

Dec:0 to +1

Jan:-2.5

Feb:0 to -1

Snowfall: 15” at DCA and 18-22 for IAD, BWI.

10-1/18-Neant  to have written  that think we will turn dry for Oct and Nov then back to above average for DJF.

My primary analog years are 1964-65 and 1969-70. I found the analog years unusually easy to pick

Keith and I are pretty far apart on temps and rather close  for snowfall 

 

KA very good on temps for first two months and near right on mark for snow.  My temp call poor for Jan but Ok for Dec and snow call very good so far 

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On 9/24/2018 at 1:45 PM, WEATHER53 said:

KA-

Temps-above average, ranging +1 to +2 monthly

snowfall-below average, 12” at DCA

This is actually not bad from him 2016-17 he went 5” and last year 8” and in 2016-17 went +5 on temps for two out of three months 

I don’t have the analogs yet 

 

 

Weather 53 Outlook

Temps

Dec:0 to +1

Jan:-2.5

Feb:0 to -1

Snowfall: 15” at DCA and 18-22 for IAD, BWI.

10-1/18-Neant  to have written  that think we will turn dry for Oct and Nov then back to above average for DJF.

My primary analog years are 1964-65 and 1969-70. I found the analog years unusually easy to pick

Keith and I are pretty far apart on temps and rather close  for snowfall 

 

These are looking pretty solid...much better than the BS from the TV mets in DC and Baltimore.

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On 9/24/2018 at 1:45 PM, WEATHER53 said:

KA-

Temps-above average, ranging +1 to +2 monthly

snowfall-below average, 12” at DCA

This is actually not bad from him 2016-17 he went 5” and last year 8” and in 2016-17 went +5 on temps for two out of three months 

I don’t have the analogs yet 

 

 

Weather 53 Outlook

Temps

Dec:0 to +1

Jan:-2.5

Feb:0 to -1

Snowfall: 15” at DCA and 18-22 for IAD, BWI.

10-1/18-Neant  to have written  that think we will turn dry for Oct and Nov then back to above average for DJF.

My primary analog years are 1964-65 and 1969-70. I found the analog years unusually easy to pick

Keith and I are pretty far apart on temps and rather close  for snowfall 

 

 

Grading the outcome

Excellent call by Keith on temps. All three months in the plus and although a bit milder than he predicted still an A-. In snowfall he went 12 for DCA and at 16.5 thru end of Feb that’s just 4.5” off so will give that a C+. Overall B

My temperatures were a bust, decent for Dec but bad for Jan and Feb. A D/D-. My snowfall call of 15 for DCA was excellent, A/A+ and for IAD and Bwi (18-22)good,  a B. Overall temps and snowfall a C+.

 Good  job again and better than most  seasonal forecasts which went cold and big snow 

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1 hour ago, WEATHER53 said:

 

Grading the outcome

Excellent call by Keith on temps. All three months in the plus and although a bit milder than he predicted still an A-. In snowfall he went 12 for DCA and at 16.5 thru end of Feb that’s just 4.5” off so will give that a C+. Overall B

My temperatures were a bust, decent for Dec but bad for Jan and Feb. A D/D-. My snowfall call of 15 for DCA was excellent, A/A+ and for IAD and Bwi (18-22)good,  a B. Overall temps and snowfall a C+.

 Good  job again and better than most  seasonal forecasts which went cold and big snow 

I’m not sure anyone will go big on snow and cold ever again.  It’s just not worth the scrutiny when most often we fail.  Take the random HECS out of the last 20 years and the result would be nothing spectacular.  

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On 11/26/2018 at 2:24 PM, WEATHER53 said:

I think low pressure patterns are showing their hand. Mostly  lake cutters, a few phase jobs that never work anyway, infrequent well placed coastal. This is why I do not see the big snow season for DC area. 

Yep this proved  to be true also and then my cautioning statement,met with howls of derision, made around 12/20/18 that we were embarking on a dangerous” 10 days away” modality.

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3 hours ago, WEATHER53 said:

Yep this proved  to be true also and then my cautioning statement,met with howls of derision, made around 12/20/18 that we were embarking on a dangerous” 10 days away” modality.

Your statement is only partially true with no disrespect. There were 2 or 3 very wet systems in December that took an ideal track for us. There was no cold to tap. This past sundays storm took another good track but again no fresh cold air to work in. There were also several suppressed systems when we had cold notably the big southern December storm. As many have said before if we all cashed in the December storm this winter would be viewed differently. That storm always argued for a more northward adjustment that never materialized. It did come up a little further at the last minute but it wasnt enough. That storm had region wide 6-12 for everyone written all over it.

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Interesting snippet is that DCA was above average in temps all three months, above average in precipitation in all three months, and above average for annual snowfall. We can’t find another season where that has happened since records started at DCA.

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