BuffaloWeather Posted September 9, 2018 Author Share Posted September 9, 2018 Hurricane Florence has the potential to be the strongest Hurricane in History to hit the Carolina coast. Might rival the infamous Hugo. Going to be a crazy couple days of tracking that thing! I think I enjoy tracking Hurricanes more than snowstorms that may hit us. A thing of beauty! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted September 9, 2018 Author Share Posted September 9, 2018 Anyone having issues with posting pics/vids/gifs? I keep getting error messages and it is no longer letting me embed them into the forums. If anyone has any tips let me know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxNoob Posted September 9, 2018 Share Posted September 9, 2018 2 hours ago, wolfie09 said: Models already in full winter mode, having trouble with the northern extent of heavy precipitation as usual, could see anywhere from 1/4”-3” of liquid depending on model of choice.. NAM, RGEM, HRRR all showing a good soaking for CNY tomorrow. Looks like some possible T-storms as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted September 11, 2018 Share Posted September 11, 2018 On 9/9/2018 at 1:00 PM, wolfie09 said: Models already in full winter mode, having trouble with the northern extent of heavy precipitation as usual, could see anywhere from 1/4”-3” of liquid depending on model of choice.. I'm back. 0.87" rain for the forecasted 1-3". Bit of an underperform here from what I can tell via NWS and public met forecasts. Bit of a theme IMBY this summer. Hopefully that changes in next few months... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted September 11, 2018 Share Posted September 11, 2018 Yup, GFS nailed this one imby, finished with 0.40” liquid...The Euro had 1-1.5” just hours before the event, precipitation almost always over done on the models, unless you live in the Mid-Atlantic.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 Florence remnants getting closer to a nice phase with that passing trough early next week. Would probably bring some gusty winds and heavy downpours. Hoping we can keep that trend up. Also a good trend for the south as it keeps her moving pretty much the whole time and reduces the flood risk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted September 13, 2018 Author Share Posted September 13, 2018 Snowed on whiteface mountain yesterday. I just climbed this in August. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted September 13, 2018 Share Posted September 13, 2018 11 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said: Snowed on whiteface mountain yesterday. I just climbed this in August. whoa, that is really impressive. That is the earliest snow I've ever heard of in the 'dacks. Thanks for posting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted September 15, 2018 Share Posted September 15, 2018 Steamy night for mid September!. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted September 15, 2018 Author Share Posted September 15, 2018 Buffalo is +5.6 above normal temp wise so far for the month. Will be the 5th straight month at above normal temps. So far we are at +1.4 for the year. https://www.weather.gov/media/buf/obs/COOPTemp_2018.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted September 16, 2018 Share Posted September 16, 2018 Looks like no rain from “Florence “ as models show it going south, Euro did well and never bit on major precipitation, different story for just south-east of ksyr-kuca.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted September 16, 2018 Share Posted September 16, 2018 Good...hopefully with it being south, the air will be less soupy and tropical up this way. Time for some cold fronts to usher in fall! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted September 17, 2018 Author Share Posted September 17, 2018 On 9/16/2018 at 9:29 AM, wolfie09 said: Looks like no rain from “Florence “ as models show it going south, Euro did well and never bit on major precipitation, different story for just south-east of ksyr-kuca.. Still looks good for a decent amount of rain across central NY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted September 17, 2018 Author Share Posted September 17, 2018 23 hours ago, TugHillMatt said: Good...hopefully with it being south, the air will be less soupy and tropical up this way. Time for some cold fronts to usher in fall! 2 weeks today from the countdown to winter thread. Oct 1st every year we start ours. This winter has some great potential. So many signs pointing in the right direction. The top analogs are all great years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted September 17, 2018 Author Share Posted September 17, 2018 Canada is going to be building up their cold and snowpack much earlier this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted September 17, 2018 Share Posted September 17, 2018 1 hour ago, BuffaloWeather said: 2 weeks today from the countdown to winter thread. Oct 1st every year we start ours. This winter has some great potential. So many signs pointing in the right direction. The top analogs are all great years. Wow, you guys start early! No complaints here. Two weeks from today is when this area can start seeing flurries. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted September 17, 2018 Share Posted September 17, 2018 1 hour ago, BuffaloWeather said: 2 weeks today from the countdown to winter thread. Oct 1st every year we start ours. This winter has some great potential. So many signs pointing in the right direction. The top analogs are all great years. Btw, which years are we looking at? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted September 17, 2018 Author Share Posted September 17, 2018 1 hour ago, TugHillMatt said: Wow, you guys start early! No complaints here. Two weeks from today is when this area can start seeing flurries. Well the average first flakes in Buffalo are Oct 24th. In the tug it's probably the 1st week of October on average, especially with elevation. It has already started snowing in the Adirondacks. Nov 1st starts lake effect season around here. We also start our winter thread later than any other forum. https://www.weather.gov/buf/FirstSnow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted September 17, 2018 Share Posted September 17, 2018 There's already a boatload of potentially colder, relatively speaking, in the vicinity of -15 to at times, -18C air already up in Central and Western CA and as the seasonal shift in the Jet continues its equatorward shift, well you get the pic, especially you cats out in WNY where I see tremendous potential for LE Blitz's this upcoming season, especially early, as is usually the case.The Lakes absolutely have to be at least a few, if not more than a few degrees above the norm right now but, truth be told, I haven't checked, but with the atrocious Summer we had with both Warmth and Humidity, I cant see how the potential doesn't exist for some real serious LES storms and serious ones at that. A Chase or 2 may be in the cards this yr especially with a few of the members now residing up in the hills of our beloved Tug Hill region sonthat would be a treat. Super 8 Pulaski, here we come, lol!Psyched about Snow and Cold this yr no doubt but early on I see some flooding potential in the Lake belts before we see the cold press. I'm just loving the way things are looking this yr so far but one really never knows whats gonna happen but were improving dramatically.Lets get through Hurricane season cause Florence just set back the Carolina's a few to several yrs, what a shame, but ppl know its bound to happen so they take their chances, yikes, not me, but I'll take a crippling Blizzard any day over a Cat 3-5 Hurricane, but I'd love to experience one, one day. A bucket list thing for me, lol. See you guys in Mid-Oct!!Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted September 17, 2018 Share Posted September 17, 2018 Still looks good for a decent amount of rain across central NYIm hoping this comes a bit further North but the SR guidance isnt budging for ****e!Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted September 17, 2018 Share Posted September 17, 2018 GFS does have some heavy rain reaching as dar North as Oswego but nothing substantial then a sweeping CF to usher a much needed cool down. Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted September 17, 2018 Author Share Posted September 17, 2018 2 hours ago, TugHillMatt said: Btw, which years are we looking at? All the weak El Nino years. Overall its our highest on average snowfall years. 76-77 is definitely a top analog which was Buffalos best winter and the year Hooker(Montague) set the snowfall record for east of the Rockies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted September 17, 2018 Author Share Posted September 17, 2018 14 minutes ago, CNY-LES FREAK said: There's already a boatload of potentially colder, relatively speaking, in the vicinity of -15 to at times, -18C air already up in Central and Western CA and as the seasonal shift in the Jet continues its equatorward shift, well you get the pic, especially you cats out in WNY where I see tremendous potential for LE Blitz's this upcoming season, especially early, as is usually the case. The Lakes absolutely have to be at least a few, if not more than a few degrees above the norm right now but, truth be told, I haven't checked, but with the atrocious Summer we had with both Warmth and Humidity, I cant see how the potential doesn't exist for some real serious LES storms and serious ones at that. A Chase or 2 may be in the cards this yr especially with a few of the members now residing up in the hills of our beloved Tug Hill region sonthat would be a treat. Super 8 Pulaski, here we come, lol! Psyched about Snow and Cold this yr no doubt but early on I see some flooding potential in the Lake belts before we see the cold press. I'm just loving the way things are looking this yr so far but one really never knows whats gonna happen but were improving dramatically. Lets get through Hurricane season cause Florence just set back the Carolina's a few to several yrs, what a shame, but ppl know its bound to happen so they take their chances, yikes, not me, but I'll take a crippling Blizzard any day over a Cat 3-5 Hurricane, but I'd love to experience one, one day. A bucket list thing for me, lol. See you guys in Mid-Oct!! Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk This summer certainly has been warm. I've enjoyed every minute of it. I've had dozens of late night walks in the neighborhood with the wife and puppy. However, I am finally starting to look forward to some cooler weather and fall like conditions in the next month. I also want to experience what it would be like to be in a Hurricanes eyewall. One of the big posters here Josh from Icyclone chases Cat 4/5s all over the world and gets in the highest winds of the eyewall. The guy lives the life! That would be a dream job for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted September 17, 2018 Share Posted September 17, 2018 49 minutes ago, CNY-LES FREAK said: There's already a boatload of potentially colder, relatively speaking, in the vicinity of -15 to at times, -18C air already up in Central and Western CA and as the seasonal shift in the Jet continues its equatorward shift, well you get the pic, especially you cats out in WNY where I see tremendous potential for LE Blitz's this upcoming season, especially early, as is usually the case. The Lakes absolutely have to be at least a few, if not more than a few degrees above the norm right now but, truth be told, I haven't checked, but with the atrocious Summer we had with both Warmth and Humidity, I cant see how the potential doesn't exist for some real serious LES storms and serious ones at that. A Chase or 2 may be in the cards this yr especially with a few of the members now residing up in the hills of our beloved Tug Hill region sonthat would be a treat. Super 8 Pulaski, here we come, lol! Psyched about Snow and Cold this yr no doubt but early on I see some flooding potential in the Lake belts before we see the cold press. I'm just loving the way things are looking this yr so far but one really never knows whats gonna happen but were improving dramatically. Lets get through Hurricane season cause Florence just set back the Carolina's a few to several yrs, what a shame, but ppl know its bound to happen so they take their chances, yikes, not me, but I'll take a crippling Blizzard any day over a Cat 3-5 Hurricane, but I'd love to experience one, one day. A bucket list thing for me, lol. See you guys in Mid-Oct!! Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Funny you say that, I’ve chased multiple times there. Awesome spot to chase for the money and you can easily access the Tug and if (or when) it gets too hairy out, there’s several spots in walking distance you can walk to for food, necessities, ect... here to hoping we have many early season events to chase (or hopefully not even have to chase lol) ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted September 18, 2018 Author Share Posted September 18, 2018 Snow showing up on long range models for first time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted September 18, 2018 Author Share Posted September 18, 2018 Matt and Wolfie. Are you guys going to be joining the Co-Op observer/Cocarahs? Would be really nice to get data from you guys in two new snowbelts. It's tough to get reliable data from people in the true belts of lake effect regions. Maybe even get a webcam setup. I don't think there is a report out of Altmar right now and only one in Redfield. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted September 18, 2018 Share Posted September 18, 2018 Super 8 huh? Lol I work in Pulaski right down the street..I live in the NW part of altmar, 6 miles ESE of Pulaski... I’ve been noticing a nice cooling trend over the last few runs on the LR GFS.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted September 18, 2018 Author Share Posted September 18, 2018 1 minute ago, wolfie09 said: Super 8 huh? Lol I work in Pulaski right down the street..I live in the NW part of altmar, 6 miles ESE of Pulaski... I’ve been noticing a nice cooling trend over the last few runs on the LR GFS.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted September 18, 2018 Share Posted September 18, 2018 Eventually I would like to Once I get a little more set up.. Actually the Bennett’s bridge location is in NE Altmar..I’m pretty sure at one point they owned the 24 and 48 hr snowfall records for NY state.. I live just south of “Richland” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted September 18, 2018 Share Posted September 18, 2018 I am definitely considering joining the network...although I fear Carol Yerdon in North Redfield will beat me out every time...lol. If you draw a line from Redfield to North Osceola, I am just south of that line..near Cedar Pines...right on the Oswego/Lewis county lines. This area is often JUST in the heaviest band that sets up on a west wind, does excellent in northwest wind events, and seems to do great with Orographic Lifting events. When you look at snowfall maps, you will see the heavier totals bend down this way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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