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2 hours ago, wolfie09 said:

Models already in full winter mode, having trouble with the northern extent of heavy precipitation as usual, could see anywhere from 1/4”-3” of liquid depending on model of choice..

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NAM, RGEM, HRRR all showing a good soaking for CNY tomorrow.  Looks like some possible T-storms as well.

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On 9/9/2018 at 1:00 PM, wolfie09 said:

Models already in full winter mode, having trouble with the northern extent of heavy precipitation as usual, could see anywhere from 1/4”-3” of liquid depending on model of choice..

I'm back. 0.87" rain for the forecasted 1-3". Bit of an underperform here from what I can tell via NWS and public met forecasts. Bit of a theme IMBY this summer.  Hopefully that changes in next few months...

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Florence remnants getting closer to a nice phase with that passing trough early next week.  Would probably bring some gusty winds and heavy downpours.  Hoping we can keep that trend up.  Also a good trend for the south as it keeps her moving  pretty much the whole time and reduces the flood risk.

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23 hours ago, TugHillMatt said:

Good...hopefully with it being south, the air will be less soupy and tropical up this way. Time for some cold fronts to usher in fall!

2 weeks today from the countdown to winter thread. Oct 1st every year we start ours. This winter has some great potential. So many signs pointing in the right direction. The top analogs are all great years. 

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1 hour ago, BuffaloWeather said:

2 weeks today from the countdown to winter thread. Oct 1st every year we start ours. This winter has some great potential. So many signs pointing in the right direction. The top analogs are all great years. 

Wow, you guys start early! No complaints here. Two weeks from today is when this area can start seeing flurries. :)

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1 hour ago, TugHillMatt said:

Wow, you guys start early! No complaints here. Two weeks from today is when this area can start seeing flurries. :)

Well the average first flakes in Buffalo are Oct 24th. In the tug it's probably the 1st week of October on average, especially with elevation. It has already started snowing in the Adirondacks. Nov 1st starts lake effect season around here. We also start our winter thread later than any other forum. 

https://www.weather.gov/buf/FirstSnow

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There's already a boatload of potentially colder, relatively speaking, in the vicinity of -15 to at times, -18C air already up in Central and Western CA and as the seasonal shift in the Jet continues its equatorward shift, well you get the pic, especially you cats out in WNY where I see tremendous potential for LE Blitz's this upcoming season, especially early, as is usually the case.

The Lakes absolutely have to be at least a few, if not more than a few degrees above the norm right now but, truth be told, I haven't checked, but with the atrocious Summer we had with both Warmth and Humidity, I cant see how the potential doesn't exist for some real serious LES storms and serious ones at that.

A Chase or 2 may be in the cards this yr especially with a few of the members now residing up in the hills of our beloved Tug Hill region sonthat would be a treat. Super 8 Pulaski, here we come, lol!

Psyched about Snow and Cold this yr no doubt but early on I see some flooding potential in the Lake belts before we see the cold press. I'm just loving the way things are looking this yr so far but one really never knows whats gonna happen but were improving dramatically.

Lets get through Hurricane season cause Florence just set back the Carolina's a few to several yrs, what a shame, but ppl know its bound to happen so they take their chances, yikes, not me, but I'll take a crippling Blizzard any day over a Cat 3-5 Hurricane, but I'd love to experience one, one day. A bucket list thing for me, lol. See you guys in Mid-Oct!!

Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk

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14 minutes ago, CNY-LES FREAK said:

There's already a boatload of potentially colder, relatively speaking, in the vicinity of -15 to at times, -18C air already up in Central and Western CA and as the seasonal shift in the Jet continues its equatorward shift, well you get the pic, especially you cats out in WNY where I see tremendous potential for LE Blitz's this upcoming season, especially early, as is usually the case.

The Lakes absolutely have to be at least a few, if not more than a few degrees above the norm right now but, truth be told, I haven't checked, but with the atrocious Summer we had with both Warmth and Humidity, I cant see how the potential doesn't exist for some real serious LES storms and serious ones at that.

A Chase or 2 may be in the cards this yr especially with a few of the members now residing up in the hills of our beloved Tug Hill region sonthat would be a treat. Super 8 Pulaski, here we come, lol!

Psyched about Snow and Cold this yr no doubt but early on I see some flooding potential in the Lake belts before we see the cold press. I'm just loving the way things are looking this yr so far but one really never knows whats gonna happen but were improving dramatically.

Lets get through Hurricane season cause Florence just set back the Carolina's a few to several yrs, what a shame, but ppl know its bound to happen so they take their chances, yikes, not me, but I'll take a crippling Blizzard any day over a Cat 3-5 Hurricane, but I'd love to experience one, one day. A bucket list thing for me, lol. See you guys in Mid-Oct!!

Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk
 

This summer certainly has been warm. I've enjoyed every minute of it. I've had dozens of late night walks in the neighborhood with the wife and puppy. However, I am finally starting to look forward to some cooler weather and fall like conditions in the next month. I also want to experience what it would be like to be in a Hurricanes eyewall. One of the big posters here Josh from Icyclone chases Cat 4/5s all over the world and gets in the highest winds of the eyewall. The guy lives the life! That would be a dream job for me. 

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49 minutes ago, CNY-LES FREAK said:

There's already a boatload of potentially colder, relatively speaking, in the vicinity of -15 to at times, -18C air already up in Central and Western CA and as the seasonal shift in the Jet continues its equatorward shift, well you get the pic, especially you cats out in WNY where I see tremendous potential for LE Blitz's this upcoming season, especially early, as is usually the case.

The Lakes absolutely have to be at least a few, if not more than a few degrees above the norm right now but, truth be told, I haven't checked, but with the atrocious Summer we had with both Warmth and Humidity, I cant see how the potential doesn't exist for some real serious LES storms and serious ones at that.

A Chase or 2 may be in the cards this yr especially with a few of the members now residing up in the hills of our beloved Tug Hill region sonthat would be a treat. Super 8 Pulaski, here we come, lol!



Psyched about Snow and Cold this yr no doubt but early on I see some flooding potential in the Lake belts before we see the cold press. I'm just loving the way things are looking this yr so far but one really never knows whats gonna happen but were improving dramatically.

Lets get through Hurricane season cause Florence just set back the Carolina's a few to several yrs, what a shame, but ppl know its bound to happen so they take their chances, yikes, not me, but I'll take a crippling Blizzard any day over a Cat 3-5 Hurricane, but I'd love to experience one, one day. A bucket list thing for me, lol. See you guys in Mid-Oct!!

Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk
 

Funny you say that, I’ve chased multiple times there. Awesome spot to chase for the money and you can easily access the Tug and if (or when) it gets too hairy out, there’s several spots in walking distance you can walk to for food, necessities, ect... here to hoping we have many early season events to chase (or hopefully not even have to chase lol) !

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Matt and Wolfie. Are you guys going to be joining the Co-Op observer/Cocarahs? Would be really nice to get data from you guys in two new snowbelts. It's tough to get reliable data from people in the true belts of lake effect regions. Maybe even get a webcam setup. I don't think there is a report out of Altmar right now and only one in Redfield. 

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I am definitely considering joining the network...although I fear Carol Yerdon in North Redfield will beat me out every time...lol. If you draw a line from Redfield to North Osceola, I am just south of that line..near Cedar Pines...right on the Oswego/Lewis county lines.

This area is often JUST in the heaviest band that sets up on a west wind, does excellent in northwest wind events, and seems to do great with Orographic Lifting events.

When you look at snowfall maps, you will see the heavier totals bend down this way.

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