Weak-Moderate El Nino 2018-2019

[40/70 Benchmark]

18 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I agree with most of your points, Ray.

 

The biggest takeaway from this ENSO event is twofold for me:

1. It is NOT east based. It is central/west based...whether you classify it as central or west is almost purely a semantical matter for the downstream sensible wx aspect in North America. The important detail is that is is not an EP El Nino.

2. It is weak...or low end moderate at most. This matters in relation to the formation of the STJ. The STJ is also affected by position as well...it tends to be more influential in EP El Ninos but even in modokis like 2009 it is present. The weaker events will produce a weaker STJ and that obviously matters for snow events on the east coast. Weaker STJ also tends to have colder winters in the east.

 

None of this guarantees anything obviously.

This one point that I have been all over, yet I see many pros overlooking this...claiming that weak el nino events are great for the mid atl because they feature an active STJ. No, moderate el nino events are the bread and butter for the mid atl, though weak can still be very good. The weaker STJ inherent of weak el nino events tend to feature the miller B type as the predominate form of cyclogenesis, which usually focuses the wrath above the 40th parallel. See 2014, 2004, 1977, 1976, and so on.....even 1968, though it was mod ONI...its behavior was more congruent with its weak MEI classification.

2002, 1986 and 2009 were solid moderate intensity.

I think this one could sneak in to mod territoy, but 1.1- to maybe 1.2 is the ceiling imo.

TBH, if you are looking for a big fish in Baltimore or DC, then I'd rather a strong event, than a weak. Sure, it won't last, and the season may be a one trick poney, but mid atl HECS and even MECS are tough during a weak event. They need the potent STJ to deliver moisture. N stream won't cut it...especially south of Philly.

[ORH_wxman]

6 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

This one point that I have been all over, yet I see many pros overlooking this...claiming that weak el nino events are great for the mid atl because they feature an active STJ. No, moderate el nino events are the bread and butter for the mid atl, though weak can still be very good. The weaker STJ inherent of weak el niono events tend to feature the miller B type as the predominate type of cyclogenesis, which usually focuses the wrath above the 40th parallel. See 2014, 2004, 1977, 1976, and so on.

2002, 1986 and 2009 were solid moderate intensity.

I think this one could sneak in to mod territoy, but 1.1- to maybe 1.2 is the ceiling imo.

Yeah it may sneak into 1986 territory or just shy. But this has started so late that I'm not sure how relevant it will be if it's peaking in January.

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah it may sneak into 1986 territory or just shy. But this has started so late that I'm not sure how relevant it will be if it's peaking in January.

Good point.......sept 2018 was near a .5 MEI..Sept 1986 was near 1.1.

Big diff, so will need to see Oct near at least 1.0 to have a shot at that STJ, I think.

How was March 1987?

[Maestrobjwa]

24 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

This one point that I have been all over, yet I see many pros overlooking this...claiming that weak el nino events are great for the mid atl because they feature an active STJ. No, moderate el nino events are the bread and butter for the mid atl, though weak can still be very good. The weaker STJ inherent of weak el nino events tend to feature the miller B type as the predominate form of cyclogenesis, which usually focuses the wrath above the 40th parallel. See 2014, 2004, 1977, 1976, and so on.....even 1968, though it was mod ONI...its behavior was more congruent with its weak MEI classification.

2002, 1986 and 2009 were solid moderate intensity.

I think this one could sneak in to mod territoy, but 1.1- to maybe 1.2 is the ceiling imo.

TBH, if you are looking for a big fish in Baltimore or DC, then I'd rather a strong event, than a weak. Sure, it won't last, and the season may be a one trick poney, but mid atl HECS and even MECS are tough during a weak event. They need the potent STJ to deliver moisture. N stream won't cut it...especially south of Philly.

No, not strong! You don't wanna flip that coin between a possible one-hit wonder-like winter (2015-16, 1982-83) or no no snow at all (1972-73, 1997-98)...Moderate is best!

And really...perhaps when it's weaker, you still can get more moderate events...that's something, at least...most weak-moderate Niños seem to hit average snowfall...

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

No, not strong! You don't wanna flip that coin between a possible one-hit wonder-like winter (2015-16, 1982-83) or no no snow at all (1972-73, 1997-98)...Moderate is best!

I agree. I was just making the point that weak el nino events are not conducive to mid atl HECS....however don't forget, that the modoki value is more important than strength. 2009-2010 was nearly strong, and 1957-58 was strong, but they were modoki strong events. But the super events will always be pretty east based because of the inherently high amount of WWB that it takes to reach such exorbitantly potent levels.

[ORH_wxman]

8 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Good point.......sept 2018 was near a .5 MEI..Sept 1986 was near 1.1.

Big diff, so will need to see Oct near at least 1.0 to have a shot at that STJ, I think.

How was March 1987?

I would say Mar '87 acted like a stronger Nino...really defined STJ. Was pretty terrible in our backyards, but some of that was bad luck too. But there was such a weak temp gradient with the STJ dominating and losing our arctic night to the north.

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I would say Mar '87 acted like a stronger Nino...really defined STJ. Was pretty terrible in our backyards, but some of that was bad luck too. But there was such a weak temp gradient with the STJ dominating and losing our arctic night to the north.

Sounds like Feb 2010.

May have to watch March as the month for the mid atl....

[raindancewx]

Wow...this blew up more than I thought. Don't you have guys jobs? I'd get fired for being on here at work.

The thing that amuses me about this thread is I didn't even go that warm for the NE in my outlook, its like +1 to +2 overall for most places, and people act like I went +10. My outlook has the typical February El Nino cold in the East, I just don't see it standing much of a chance against the heat in Dec for the overall DJF period. If you look at the El Nino years when July-June averaged under 50 sunspots, you have 1953-54 - warm in the NE, you have 1963-64, cold but probably partially from Agung in March 1963, you have 1965-66 which is average in New England and a bit cold to the south, you have 1976-77 which is cold, you have 1986-87, which in the NE is identical to 1965-66. Then you have 1994-95. Warm in the NE. You have 2006-07 - warm in the NE. Then you have 2009-10, which is like 1965-66 and 1986-87. So you have 1953, 1994, 2006 as clearly warm, 1963, 1976 a clearly cold, and the others are average. It's not exactly a slam dunk. The July-Jun high solar El Nino Modoki winters are pretty clearly the coldest in the NE - 2002, 1968, 1957, 2014, 1977, etc. But hey we'll see.

I had an El Nino Modoki forming as the second post in this thread back in April - the only thing I've changed since then is I expect the OLR/heat core to be in Nino 3, not Nino 3.4.

Some updates - QBO up to -2.79 for October. 2002/2009/2014 were dropping in Oct, not rising. 1994 had a rise.

The European had a big rise in Nino 3.4 and Nino 1.2 for October in its updated initialization. 

Here is a look at October 2002 v. October 2018 nationally, on a -7F to +7F scale. No where near as cold

Finally, here is a look at high-solar Modoki winters v. low-solar winters of any kind nationally.

 

[raindancewx]

13 hours ago, showmethesnow said:

Couple questions here. Considering there is a lag time with ENSO forcing wouldn't a better SST anomaly be for Nov-Jan? Also, doesn't a particular ENSO state bear different results depending on whether it is leading into the winter/early winter vs. the middle/tail end of winter?

Looking at the above I think I would still consider that a Modoki even though there is a patch of higher anomalies just east of the 3.4 region. Wouldn't surprise me if we crunched the hard numbers on it that is what they would say as well.

*Weatherbell doesn't really have a good break down of the CANSIPS and I would really like to see a month to month evolution of the SST's. Is the site you are using above a paysite? If not could I get the link? Thanks.

 

To be honest, for the SW, the most canonical El Nino conditions come from "big warm ups" from winter to winter. 2015-16 wasn't a big deal here, with 2014-15 warm. But 1972, 1997, 1965, 1957, 2006, 2009 and many others warmed from a negative ONI value the prior winter and ended up as very cold/very wet or both here. The El Ninos following an El Nino here are pretty crappy in winter - 2015, 1987, 1977, 1969, 1958, 1941, 1940. You usually get one huge snow event, decent precip, and warmth. The El Ninos after La Ninas are certainly much colder.

[Maestrobjwa]

2 hours ago, raindancewx said:

To be honest, for the SW, the most canonical El Nino conditions come from "big warm ups" from winter to winter. 2015-16 wasn't a big deal here, with 2014-15 warm. But 1972, 1997, 1965, 1957, 2006, 2009 and many others warmed from a negative ONI value the prior winter and ended up as very cold/very wet or both here. The El Ninos following an El Nino here are pretty crappy in winter - 2015, 1987, 1977, 1969, 1958, 1941, 1940. You usually get one huge snow event, decent precip, and warmth. The El Ninos after La Ninas are certainly much colder.

So in other words...this winter may be a colder El Niño since we had a La niña last year? (Do you have any data to show on that correlation?)

[raindancewx]

Here is what I have for high temperatures in El Ninos by SST warm up in Nino 3.4 for Albuquerque - the 1951-2010 average high here is 49.5F for winter for context. An El Nino that follows a much stronger El Nino, like 1958 after 1957, will tend to be warm here.

So the second image is just all El Ninos since 1950 in Albuquerque by how warm Nino 3.4 was in the prior winter. Last winter was 25.72C, so you'd expect a fairly cold winter relative to the 60-year average of 49.5F. I consider 26.5C in DJF to be average for Nino 3.4. 

Now, here you have just Nino 3.4 in El Ninos v. high temperatures in DJF in Albuquerque -

In El Ninos, the sunspot correlation is similar in strength to SSTs in Nino 3.4. So the blend of the three is the ideal. The coldest winters here are strong El Ninos after strong La Ninas, with low sunspot activity. 2006 and 2009 were fairly ideal for cold on all three. This year is too, and sure enough, October highs were 4.5F below the long-term average.

[griteater]

Nino 3.4 / Modoki Index over the last 5 days (Daily AVHRR Data)

11/2: 1.51 / 0.94

11/1: 1.46 / 0.90

10/31: 1.39 / 1.00

10/30: 1.23 / 1.03

10/29: 0.98 / 0.86

 

As recent as Sep22, we were stuck around 0.0 (Neutral)

[frd]

2 hours ago, griteater said:

Nino 3.4 / Modoki Index over the last 5 days (Daily AVHRR Data)

11/2: 1.51 / 0.94

11/1: 1.46 / 0.90

10/31: 1.39 / 1.00

10/30: 1.23 / 1.03

10/29: 0.98 / 0.86

 

As recent as Sep22, we were stuck around 0.0 (Neutral)

Wow, very quick and still rising. 

This is from the West Pac storms, is that correct ?  

Moderate in site maybe . 

[raindancewx]

So far the "-SOI Sept = Cold Nov in TX" thing seems to be working - could obviously change by the end of the month. The correlation maps look dead on to Nov 1-3 in the green area.

1986, 2002 and 2014, which had big positive PDO values in Nov were cold in the East. We're already at the point in the NE where the heat will make it hard for the month to be more than a 1-2F colder than normal at best. 1994, 2006, 2009 on the other hand were warm in the NE. The +11 for Boston, even for a 1/10th of the month is hard to wipe out quickly.

 

[Maestrobjwa]

7 minutes ago, raindancewx said:

So far the "-SOI Sept = Cold Nov in TX" thing seems to be working - could obviously change by the end of the month. The correlation maps look dead on to Nov 1-3 in the green area.

1986, 2002 and 2014, which had big positive PDO values in Nov were cold in the East. We're already at the point in the NE where the heat will make it hard for the month to be more than a 1-2F colder than normal at best. 1994, 2006, 2009 on the other hand were warm in the NE. The +11 for Boston, even for a 1/10th of the month is hard to wipe out quickly.

 

So just to clarify...which end of the spectrum are you saying we're closer to? Those Novembers that were warm in the NE? (And what implications could that have going forward?)

[raindancewx]

I think you have to assume Nov ends up +/-1F for the NE at the cold end, or warm in November given the highs are around +11 so far through 1/10 of the month. The PDO doesn't seem like it is going to be above +0.5 in Nov if the NE is going to be warm. I don't have an exact estimate for the PDO yet, I need to see the official Nino 1.2 October value, but I'm 75-25 toward it between -0.5 and +0.5 for Nov-Apr. I wouldn't be shocked if it pops to +1 for a month or two, but I think you have months right around 0 too from Nov-Apr. The next week will lower the NE heat from +11 or whatever to +3 or +4, but by that point, it is for 1/3 of the month and still difficult to displace. 

It's very rare to get big October rains in the SW if the PDO isn't in that Neutral zone, the ocean is either too cold for dying E Pac hurricanes (we had Rosa, Sergio, and moisture from Willa this year), or the ridge is already in place and sending in storms diving from NW to SE over the SW, and those storms don't have enough moisture to give us big rains. Most places in AZ/NM had a top-ten Oct for rain in 2018. 

I'm very curious to see if the El Nino can maintain the level it is at now or get even stronger in DJF, per the numbers Griteater is posting. I have this long-standing formula that blends in solar-data, Nino 3.4 for the current winter and Nino 3.4 for the prior winter, and it spits out accurate Tmax data for winters here. If we end up at 28C for the Nino in DJF though, the math says it should be very cold here, maybe coldest since the 1970s or 1980s for highs. 

[Maestrobjwa]

12 minutes ago, raindancewx said:

I think you have to assume Nov ends up +/-1F for the NE at the cold end, or warm in November given the highs are around +11 so far through 1/10 of the month. The PDO doesn't seem like it is going to be above +0.5 in Nov if the NE is going to be warm. I don't have an exact estimate for the PDO yet, I need to see the official Nino 1.2 October value, but I'm 75-25 toward it between -0.5 and +0.5 for Nov-Apr. I wouldn't be shocked if it pops to +1 for a month or two, but I think you have months right around 0 too from Nov-Apr. The next week will lower the NE heat from +11 or whatever to +3 or +4, but by that point, it is for 1/3 of the month and still difficult to displace. 

It's very rare to get big October rains in the SW if the PDO isn't in that Neutral zone, the ocean is either too cold for dying E Pac hurricanes (we had Rosa, Sergio, and moisture from Willa this year), or the ridge is already in place and sending in storms diving from NW to SE over the SW, and those storms don't have enough moisture to give us big rains. Most places in AZ/NM had a top-ten Oct for rain in 2018. 

I'm very curious to see if the El Nino can maintain the level it is at now or get even stronger in DJF, per the numbers Griteater is posting. I have this long-standing formula that blends in solar-data, Nino 3.4 for the current winter and Nino 3.4 for the prior winter, and it spits out accurate Tmax data for winters here. If we end up at 28C for the Nino in DJF though, the math says it should be very cold here, maybe coldest since the 1970s or 1980s for highs. 

Now when you say "here" I take it you're talking about your area? (NM?) I live in the Mid-Atl which is why I have a particular interest in the ENSO!

[raindancewx]

Yeah I live in NM. I was in the Northeast though until 2010. It looks like another big impulse of heat (+4C to +5C) is set to come up around 120W in the next few weeks.

The longer those images go without blues showing up, the longer til the El Nino starts to decay. It seems like Oct-Mar is pretty safe at this point for El Nino conditions.

The mountains here are already doing quite well for snow and we've already had several days in the city with highs in the 40s, which is very cold for us in October, given the average October high is 71.3F. Last November we had record heat, with a high of 65.4F in November, barely colder than October 2018 - 66.8F.

 

[raindancewx]

On 11/2/2018 at 10:15 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Finally, If one of the most prominent volcanic eruptions on the globe matters, the 1991-1992 and 1994-1995 el nino events are pretty useless as analogs, however you continue to cite them as viable, while discarding 2009 due to the location of the first observed positive sst anomaly during the evolution of that particular ENSO event. 

Your post requires a lot of things to go right at this point. As an example of a possible issue, I think the QBO could be very positive for winter given how much it came up in October, and the PDO continued to fall off in October, even though the El Nino rapidly developed that month.

https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/teleconnections/pdo/

201809	-0.47
201810	-0.71

This isn't the "good" PDO indicator, that is here - http://research.jisao.washington.edu/pdo/PDO.latest.txt but the NOAA number usually moves in the same way as the JISAO value. From August to September, the NOAA PDO dropped, and then the JISAO PDO did too.

[griteater]

5 hours ago, frd said:

Wow, very quick and still rising. 

This is from the West Pac storms, is that correct ?  

Moderate in site maybe . 

Here's an image showing the westerly wind burst on the south side of Typhoon Yutu, located in the West Pacific on Oct 23

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, raindancewx said:

Your post requires a lot of things to go right at this point. As an example of a possible issue, I think the QBO could be very positive for winter given how much it came up in October, and the PDO continued to fall off in October, even though the El Nino rapidly developed that month.

https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/teleconnections/pdo/

201809	-0.47
201810	-0.71

This isn't the "good" PDO indicator, that is here - http://research.jisao.washington.edu/pdo/PDO.latest.txt but the NOAA number usually moves in the same way as the JISAO value. From August to September, the NOAA PDO dropped, and then the JISAO PDO did too.

I'm not at all worried.

[raindancewx]

On the NOAA PDO site, the closest October values in an El Nino are 1994, 2004 and 2006. My analogs had the PDO at -0.28 (JISAO PDO) for October, so still optimistic. My analogs have the PDO starting negative and then slowly rising positive through winter, which seems about right. The very warm waters East of Japan do seem to be cooling, which is consistent with the PDO becoming positive, but there also seems to be cooling of the waters by Alaska, consistent with the PDO going negative. We'll have to see how November looks in a few weeks. Big PDO readings in winter make the East cold in winter. We look nothing like a positive PDO for now.

QBO seems like it will be over +10 at this point for winter, given Nov may be +5 or so. Atlantic is also cooling off rather nicely again.

[OSUmetstud]

I'm not sure a negative PDO here means as much as it normally would. It's a bit of a "fake" -pdo in the sense that there's really warm water in the Gulf of AK all the way south into the PAC NW. That SST arrangement along with a CP El Nino should be associated with a +PNA pattern predominantly through winter. Usually it would be cold there in a more typical -PDO. The value of the index is lowered significantly because of the warm water off japan. 

[uncle W]

Except for 1972-73 and 1997-98 NYC had a much better winter after two or more la Nina or weak negative years...2014-15 was a second straight great winter and was better than the previous winter in Boston...

1952-53

1957-58

1963-64

1968-69

1976-77

1986-87

2002-03

2009-10

2014-15

 

 

 

[raindancewx]

On some level I agree it is like a fake PDO-, or PDO=, but the technical definition of the PDO phases is that the NE pacific is warm or cold relative to the NW pacific, and for Oct, those waters by Japan mean the NE Pacific is NOT warm relative to the NW Pacific.

For the PDO area only, Oct 2004 + Oct 2005 is actually a pretty close look to this year.

[griteater]

Nino 3.4 / Modoki Index over the last 5 days (Daily AVHRR Data)

11/3: 1.65 / 1.11

11/2: 1.51 / 0.94

11/1: 1.46 / 0.90

10/31: 1.39 / 1.00

10/30: 1.23 / 1.03

[frd]

2 hours ago, griteater said:

Nino 3.4 / Modoki Index over the last 5 days (Daily AVHRR Data)

11/3: 1.65 / 1.11

11/2: 1.51 / 0.94

11/1: 1.46 / 0.90

10/31: 1.39 / 1.00

10/30: 1.23 / 1.03

You expect the rise to continue with the SOI now negative?

Also, any associations between the trending colder waters near the Phillipines and the NAO in the winter? 

I believe somewhere in this thread I read that either warmer or colder waters in this region has some sort of relationship with the upcoming winter NAO phase, maybe it was Raindancewx, not sure. 

 

[griteater]

46 minutes ago, frd said:

You expect the rise to continue with the SOI now negative?

Also, any associations between the trending colder waters near the Phillipines and the NAO in the winter? 

I believe somewhere in this thread I read that either warmer or colder waters in this region has some sort of relationship with the upcoming winter NAO phase, maybe it was Raindancewx, not sure. 

I'm not familiar with that specific NAO connection

Westerly wind anomalies east of the dateline are forecast to subside over the next 10 days.  I would expect to see Nino 3.4 cool down some here soon - https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf&region=global&pkg=u850aMean&runtime=2018110400&fh=120

[raindancewx]

There is some correlation between Box C in the Jamstec Modoki calculation and the NAO phase historically, but it may just be because Box C corresponds well to solar-activity or because Box C is warming as the -NAO has become somewhat rarer. My hunch is the things that control the AMO/NAO/Box C tend to move in sync, but I have no way of proving that. The period represented below is 1950-2017. It seems to me that Box A (similar to Nino 3.4) v. Box B controls how the cold/warm split sets up in the US, but Box C controls the magnitude of it if that makes any sense. If Box A is a lot warmer than Box B, you can get a cold east, warm west pattern. But if Box C is cold, its maybe -3F to -6F for the East v. near normal West, instead of -0 to -2F East and +2 to +4 west. It's pretty much impossible to get the entire West cold in the same winter without Box C cooperation. 

[raindancewx]

NAO in the +1.03 to +2.03 in an El Nino October (it was 1.53 this October). For low solar years only. 1953 is in the zone, so it gets two weights. 1963 is identical. It gets three. 1986 is just out of range. It gets one. ftp://ftp.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wd52dg/data/indices/nao_index.tim

If you include all the high solar years, same scale.