Weak-Moderate El Nino 2018-2019

[raindancewx]

I think Bastardi is going to move to 2002-03 (x3), 1986-87 (x2), 2013-14 (x1) for their final winter forecast given the SST map he used in the daily update video today. Or maybe he is still looking at things? Hard to say. 1986-87 is my coldest October in an El Nino for highs, and quite similar to this year. October still looks like a more extreme version of 2002, maybe a blend of 1969 and 1986 but with the cold and heat both more expansive to the West? 

For the maps below, say 2002-03 is the best match like Weatherbell says, save for three things? Blues mean when thing A goes up, (AMO) thing B goes down (temps or precip). Yellows/Greens mean when thing A goes up, thing B goes up (AMO up, so is precip).

1) AMO is somewhat warmer.

That favors somewhat strongly warmer conditions than 2002-03 in New England, slightly favors warmth in the rest of the Eastern US. There are weak correlations to less precipitation in the SW and more precipitation in the NE/NW with a warmer AMO than 2002.

2) Sunspots are lower than 2002. July 2002-June 2003 had 131 per month on average in that period. I expect around 9 for the current July-June year.

Lower solar activity favors less precipitation (weakly) in TX and the mid-south. It favors more in the Northern Plains, NE, and coastal SE. Temps are favored colder than 2002 (weakly) in high elevation areas of the SE & SW.

3) The PDO seems like it will be less positive than 2002 and this is probably the most important difference v. 2002-03 if it stays less positive:

That favors less rain in the SW & FL v. 2002-03, but more in the mid-South. Also, cold should be less severe in the SE, and probably into the NE & TX too relative to 2002. 

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Sign me up for above average precip and normal to slightly above normal temps....basically 2004-2005.

[raindancewx]

In the context of subsurface heat, I just noticed Sept 2018 is only behind 2015, 2006 (barely), 2002, 1997, 1982 since 1979. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ocean/index/heat_content_index.txt

Failed El Ninos:

YR    MON   130E-80W   160E-80W   180W-100W (Nino 3.4 is 120-170W)
2003    8      .24       .20        .03
2003    9      .28       .16        .10
2003   10      .42       .33        .34

1990    8      .38       .37        .46
1990    9      .27       .32        .25
1990   10      .35       .40        .50

2012    8      .69       .74        .83
2012    9      .40       .44        .36
2012   10      .31       .38        .40

Now look at 2018:

2018    8     0.75      0.73       0.81
2018    9     1.03      1.06       1.12

Years with +0.8 in Aug and +1.1 in Sept in the 180-100W zone? Blend of 2006/2009 works pretty well honestly.

2009    8      .72       .79        .79
2009    9      .64       .72        .76

2006    8      .80       .91       1.05
2006    9      .85      1.01       1.13

[raindancewx]

The SOI spike has reversed into a crash again, at least temporarily. Should start to see more warmth coming up in a few days.

Just for fun, here is what the subsurface anomalies, 100W-180W, produce for October, using top matches for July-Sept. The Atlantic is vastly warmer along the East Coast, and the Pacific is different, but overall, for not looking at anything else it is a decent reproduction of October conditions nationally so far. 

Subsurface	July	August	September
2002	0.73	1.05	1.41
2004	0.83	0.78	0.87
2006	0.73	1.05	1.13
2009	1.05	0.79	0.76
Mean	0.84	0.92	1.04
2018	0.81	0.81	1.12

[weathafella]

I bet when this October goes into the books 2002 temperatures will match.

[frd]

6 minutes ago, weathafella said:

I bet when this October goes into the books 2002 temperatures will match.

Weathafella, you might be correct. Interesting developments continue with this progressing  El Nino .....

I really like this going forward in time. 

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 hours ago, frd said:

Weathafella, you might be correct. Interesting developments continue with this progressing  El Nino .....

I really like this going forward in time. 

 

What are the implications of this?

[raindancewx]

Pretty solid week for the El Nino. Looks like 2006, except in Nino 1.2.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/wksst8110.for

               Nino1+2      Nino3        Nino34        Nino4
 Week         SST SSTA     SST SSTA     SST SSTA     SST SSTA
17OCT2018     21.1 0.3     25.9 1.0     27.6 0.9     29.6 0.9

16OCT1991     20.7-0.1     25.5 0.6     27.8 1.1     29.6 1.0
19OCT1994     21.8 0.9     25.6 0.6     27.5 0.8     29.4 0.8
16OCT2002     21.7 0.9     25.7 0.8     27.9 1.2     29.4 0.7
13OCT2004     20.5-0.2     25.2 0.3     27.3 0.6     29.4 0.8
18OCT2006     22.4 1.5     26.0 1.1     27.5 0.8     29.5 0.8
14OCT2009     21.0 0.2     25.6 0.7     27.5 0.8     29.6 1.0
15OCT2014     21.5 0.7     25.5 0.5     27.2 0.5     29.4 0.7

Here is an updated look at 2002 v. 2018 for October. Much colder West, much warmer East.

[griteater]

4 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

What are the implications of this?

To me it’s just another indicator of a legit El Niño.  The somewhat persistent low level westerly wind anomalies are impacting the ocean via the west to east surface current. The warmest water (not anomalies) is always to the west, so any west to east current is indicative of warming in the nino regions.

[frd]

17 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

What are the implications of this?

Ray, to me this adds further evidence to the coming El Niño and supports a continuation of warmth transport , at least from a ocean current origin,  moving from the warmer waters of the far West Pac East to the Central Pac, and somewhat beyond.  As Ventrice mentioned , "this is the longest fetch of surface Eastward currents I have seen to date to year. "

[40/70 Benchmark]

Yea, nothing new in my eyes. I still like a weak modoki event. Not extreme pike 2009 or 1968, but modoki, nonetheless.

[frd]

3 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, nothing new in my eyes. I still like a weak modoki event. Not extreme pike 2009 or 190968, but modoki, nonetheless.

Speaking of the Pac and the El Nino , this might be of interest to you as HM was talking about how we get to a certain outcome(s ),  starting from two different beginnings .

Not putting words in HM's mouth but I thought this was a interesting post by him this morning.  You can see below:

 

 

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

26 minutes ago, frd said:

Speaking of the Pac and the El Nino , this might be of interest to you as HM was talking about how we get to a certain outcome(s ),  starting from two different beginnings .

Not putting words in HM's mouth but I thought this was a interesting post by him this morning.  You can see below:

 

 

 

I think what he is insinuating in a more technical manner is what I have been saying....this event is not as strong as 2002.

This has been my sole issue with that analog all along, and why I think this will be a more Miller B oriented season than that one was. AKA, not quite as snowy in the mid atl. Not bad, either, though...could still be good.

[frd]

51 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I think what he is insinuating in a more technical manner is what I have been saying....this event is not as strong as 2002.

This has been my sole issue with that analog all along, and why I think this will be a more Miller B oriented season than that one was. AKA, not quite as snowy in the mid atl. Not bad, either, though...could still be good.

Agree.... in the end despite any changes to the El Nino, I think we are going to lack help in the my area, the Mid-Atlantic,  from the NAO domain. However,  maybe we counter that by having more nickel and dime events ( -EPO +PNA )  .  If we get a period of - NAO and get cooperation from the Southern jet and disturbances , like in 09-10 then maybe one single storm we could put down a lot of the seasonal snowfall. 

However to based a seasonal forecast on that outcome is silly . I am looking forward to your outlook.  When is is due,  later this week ?  

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 hours ago, frd said:

Agree.... in the end despite any changes to the El Nino, I think we are going to lack help in the my area, the Mid-Atlantic,  from the NAO domain. However,  maybe we counter that by having more nickel and dime events ( -EPO +PNA )  .  If we get a period of - NAO and get cooperation from the Southern jet and disturbances , like in 09-10 then maybe one single storm we could put down a lot of the seasonal snowfall. 

However to based a seasonal forecast on that outcome is silly . I am looking forward to your outlook.  When is is due,  later this week ?  

Usually around the 12th.

[uncle W]

El nino Decembers...negative ao/nao Decembers...Positive ao/nao Decembers...

[raindancewx]

My analog blend, which re-created ocean/solar conditions and Summer observed weather for highs and precipitation in Albuquerque, looks nearly perfect again locally. The one adjustment I made to the analogs is that precipitation is only perfect after pushing everything up a month, due to MJO timing differences. In other words, the blend had 1.4" in July, we had it in June, the blend had 2.2" in August, we had it in July, etc, and then that is carrying forward into October after working in September.

 

 

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, uncle W said:

El nino Decembers...negative ao/nao Decembers...Positive ao/nao Decembers...

Sums up perfectly why I don't think its going to be an exceptionally wintery December back east.

There isn't much to support any sustained early season blocking.

[raindancewx]

This is what the local NWS service has for winter - they just went with recent weak/moderate El Ninos, and they never factor in solar conditions.

https://www.weather.gov/media/abq/Briefings/201819WinterOutlook.pdf

[Great Snow 1717]

On ‎10‎/‎22‎/‎2018 at 10:43 PM, griteater said:

To me it’s just another indicator of a legit El Niño.  The somewhat persistent low level westerly wind anomalies are impacting the ocean via the west to east surface current. The warmest water (not anomalies) is always to the west, so any west to east current is indicative of warming in the nino regions.

I agree. I do not think some people are taking that into account when they are looking ahead to winter. 

[raindancewx]

My analogs for winter had a cold West and near average highs for the East this month, I was thinking that would be way out in the East, but it looks pretty close to reality now.

Generally, when it is very wet in the SW in August & October, the following March is often very active. I'm at over 1.6" for October now, with Phoenix nearing record rains (over 5.3") for October. 

The SOI still looks closest to 1986 and 1957.

SOI	July	Aug	Sept	Oct	ABS
2018	1.8	-6.7	-8.5	2.2	0.0
1957	1.4	-8.2	-9.4	-0.3	5.3
1986	2.0	-7.0	-4.7	6.6	8.7

[uncle W]

On 10/23/2018 at 8:57 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Sums up perfectly why I don't think its going to be an exceptionally wintery December back east.

There isn't much to support any sustained early season blocking.

today was the first day that the ao and nao were negative together in months...forecasts are for them to get more negative before it relaxes...and then comes back...subject to change on a daily basis...timing looks good to me and I think December will be a negative ao month at least....

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 minutes ago, uncle W said:

today was the first day that the ao and nao were negative together in months...forecasts are for them to get more negative before it relaxes...and then comes back...subject to change on a daily basis...timing looks good to me and I think December will be a negative ao month at least....

Based on what?

[raindancewx]

On the dailies, the NAO did go negative in 1953, 1976, 1986, 1994, 2006, my analogs, for various periods in winter. There is no reason to think it won't this year, my issue has been with duration, not that it wouldn't happen. As an example, even the dreaded 1994 -

ftp://ftp.cdc.noaa.gov/Public/gbates/teleconn/nao.reanalysis.t10trunc.1948-present.txt

1994 10 23    2.36
1994 10 24  -23.44
1994 10 25  -26.90
1994 10 26  -18.39
1994 10 27  -12.08
1994 10 28   10.60
1994 10 29   51.70
1994 10 30   94.38
1994 10 31  123.44
1994 11 01   91.96
1994 11 02   21.27
1994 11 03  -36.42
1994 11 04  -25.13
1994 11 05  -10.09
1994 11 06  -11.53
1994 11 07  -64.01
1994 11 08 -191.91
1994 11 09 -243.59
1994 11 10 -246.20
1994 11 11 -215.30
1994 11 12 -103.02

[uncle W]

23 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Based on what?

the ao and nao going negative now and the analogs I think are relative to this year...

[raindancewx]

Here is a look at the latest subsurface animation - less anomalous heat in the last frame, but still no real cold anywhere.

Here is 2014 for comparison. Looks a lot warmer to me still.

 

[raindancewx]

For the past two Springs, I have been using "replication analogs" to predict Jan-Jun precipitation locally. If you can get every month from July-December precipitation totals within 0.2 inches of observed values, the Jan-Jun period tends to work as well. We had a big July and a big October after a quiet August-September, fairly unusual. Will obviously adjust as needed for November and December, but it certainly looks pretty active in Jan-Apr, those are huge numbers for this area.

The blend of years above has high solar activity and some issues that imply it isn't a good national blend even though it isn't terrible for SSTs. Cold October highs, in an El Nino, with low solar activity, and 1.14"-2.14" rain can be reproduced locally with 1986, 1994, 2006, 2009, and those years look like Oct 2018 nationally as a blend.

At this point, I think these are my analog tiers for the US over the next few months:

A-tier: 1953, 1976, 1986, 1994, 2006 (most similar blend - low solar, weak El Ninos, similar AMO, similar PDO, after La Ninas as a blend)

B-tier: 1939, 1941, 1957, 1958, 1963, 1969, 1972, 1977, 1982, 2002, 2004, 2009, 2014 (very similar to 2018, but important differences)

C-tier: 1932, 1934, 1968, 1991, 1992, 2003, 2012 (some major similarities and also major differences to 2018)

Here are the past two years for comparison, the three month totals have been dead on, less so for individual months.

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

Thanks for keeping this thread active. Good call on Neutral! Looks like a good winter withthis Ocotover Noreaster and Weak El Nino conditions. 

[raindancewx]

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

^ Thanks for that. Definitely a weak El Nino surface SSTs coming. If you look at the Pacific pattern over the next 7 days its very +PNA and subsurface-El NIno like (again). Really good predictor here.