Weak-Moderate El Nino 2018-2019

[raindancewx]

The ONI value for JJA came in at +0.1C (same as MJJ). This actually makes sense, the ECMWF uses OISST, CPC uses a different SST data set. So both data sets showed a drop off from July. From CPC - http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/detrend.nino34.ascii.txt

2018   4   27.32   27.73   -0.41
2018   5   27.74   27.85   -0.11
2018   6   27.78   27.65    0.13
2018   7   27.42   27.26    0.16
2018   8   26.94   26.91    0.04

JJA (0.04+0.16+0.13)/3 = +0.11

MJJ (-0.11+0.13+0.16)/3 = +0.06

Still warming...just slowly, three steps forward two back.

2006 still looks pretty similar to me in an ONI sense (AMO is different). 1986 is fairly similar too. 1976 not bad. I like 1994 too, but for different reasons. I have 1934 in for completely different reasons too.

Year     DJF    JFM   FMA    MAM    AMJ   MJJ   JJA

1976    -1.6    -1.2    -0.7    -0.5    -0.3    0.0    0.2    0.4    0.6    0.8    0.9    0.8

1986    -0.5    -0.5    -0.3    -0.2    -0.1    0.0   0.2    0.4    0.7    0.9    1.1    1.2

2006    -0.8    -0.7    -0.5    -0.3    0.0    0.0    0.1    0.3    0.5    0.7    0.9    0.9

2018    -0.9    -0.8    -0.6    -0.4    -0.1    0.1   0.1

[griteater]

From @WorldClimateSvc - "The latest Environment Canada CanSIPS seasonal forecast is finally available. Much weaker El Niño now indicated: Dec-Feb Niño3.4 anomaly now only +0.67°C versus +1.08 last month."

[raindancewx]

The weaker El Nino is much more in line with my thinking. I lean toward +0.6C to +0.8C at this point for DJF. ASO is probably going to be around +0.3C given how August was at +0.0C. ONI of +0.3C in ASO is like 1958, 1968, 1979, 1990, 2006, 2014 among years that became Ninos late.

Here is the new Canadian look that Griteater mentioned: 

I'm not particularly sold on the idea of a frigid NE like 2009 - the warmest waters were way west that year. That said, Nino 1.2 is still cold and I don't think the Canadian is really reflecting that yet. The Nino should start in October if the Canadian is right (idea probably isn't terrible, SOI is pushing warm water into Nino 3.4 up to the surface again). This is pretty similar to Larry Cosgrove's call from July. The Modoki index on the image on the top left is probably around +0.3, with the edges of the Pacific colder than the middle, but still warm.

Here is what 2009-10 looked like for comparison:

The look (Nino 3.4) is closer to 2006-07. The temperature outlook kind of reflects that too.

I do think Nino 1.2 and the AMO are issues v. 2006, which is why I've been including 1934, 1976, 1986, 1994 with 2006 to cool the Atlantic and change the SSTs off the US West. I've been weighting 1994 twice, but it pushes the core of the Nino too far West, may end up weighting 1986 twice and 1994 once.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Yea, I think .3-.4ish is on point for the modiki..likely to be a less prevalent STJ vs 2010, too....more Miller Bish, potentially.

[40/70 Benchmark]

5 hours ago, griteater said:

From @WorldClimateSvc - "The latest Environment Canada CanSIPS seasonal forecast is finally available. Much weaker El Niño now indicated: Dec-Feb Niño3.4 anomaly now only +0.67°C versus +1.08 last month."

Euro weakened this month, too....from 1.1 to like .8.

[raindancewx]

The SOI has crashed massively in recent days after finishing August pretty low. Low SOI values in Sept somewhat favor a cold US in October. It is a pretty strong signal for a cold November in TX...and a warm signal east of the Rockies in Dec. Doesn't indicate much for January. Strong warm signal in the NW for February. Strong cold signal for SW in March.

 

[raindancewx]

It is also pretty amazing how much colder everything is now v. August of 2015. 

[Maestrobjwa]

7 minutes ago, raindancewx said:

It is also pretty amazing how much colder everything is now v. August of 2015. 

Er...Wonder if that means that a neutral may end up being the final result? (And that perhaps winter of 19-20 will be El Niño?)

[raindancewx]

I still like an El Nino, it is just going to be real weak. We'll see what the European plume looks like when it is out later this month, probably this week. We've had El Ninos form with Nino 3 colder than it was in August - 1994, 1977, 1968, 1958, 1953. Nino 3.4 has been colder in August ahead of some recent El Ninos - 2014, 1977, 1958, etc. A lot of the years with severe cold late in Nino 1.2 the prior winter that become El Ninos also look similar (1994, 1968, 2004 etc)

You have to remember - the European had a drop off in August before a rebound in September, and it looks like that is happening. It just means the event will start in October and probably end in March. Something like +0.5 Oct, +0.6 Nov, +0.7 Dec-Jan, +0.6 Feb, +0.5 Mar if I had to guess.

[40/70 Benchmark]

5 hours ago, raindancewx said:

I still like an El Nino, it is just going to be real weak. We'll see what the European plume looks like when it is out later this month, probably this week. We've had El Ninos form with Nino 3 colder than it was in August - 1994, 1977, 1968, 1958, 1953. Nino 3.4 has been colder in August ahead of some recent El Ninos - 2014, 1977, 1958, etc. A lot of the years with severe cold late in Nino 1.2 the prior winter that become El Ninos also look similar (1994, 1968, 2004 etc)

You have to remember - the European had a drop off in August before a rebound in September, and it looks like that is happening. It just means the event will start in October and probably end in March. Something like +0.5 Oct, +0.6 Nov, +0.7 Dec-Jan, +0.6 Feb, +0.5 Mar if I had to guess.

1994 was the polar opposite of those two seasons in the east.

1968 and 2004 were two of the snowiest winters on record in eastern New England, 1994 was one of the most mild winters we have seen.

[raindancewx]

Updated comparison v. last year:

SOI looks like it is cooperating again -

Date	Tahiti (hPa)	Darwin (hPa)	Daily Contribution	30 day Av. SOI	90 day Av. SOI
9 Sep 2018	1011.77	1013.05	-21.39	-6.34	-4.29
8 Sep 2018	1009.69	1012.55	-30.78	-6.66	-4.33
7 Sep 2018	1008.74	1011.85	-32.27	-6.19	-4.02
6 Sep 2018	1009.99	1012.05	-26.03	-5.13	-3.63
5 Sep 2018	1012.45	1012.20	-12.30	-4.63	-3.44
4 Sep 2018	1014.10	1012.30	-3.09	-5.03	-3.40
3 Sep 2018	1015.35	1012.25	4.64	-5.37	-3.33
2 Sep 2018	1015.95	1012.90	4.34	-5.70	-3.37
1 Sep 2018	1017.14	1013.00	10.82	-6.03	-3.51

[raindancewx]

Weeklies update - some warmer anomalies. Nino 3.4 is similar/ahead v. 1994.

                Nino1+2      Nino3        Nino34        Nino4
 Week          SST SSTA     SST SSTA     SST SSTA     SST SSTA
 01AUG2018     21.2 0.1     25.3 0.0     27.1 0.1     29.1 0.4
 08AUG2018     20.8-0.1     25.1-0.1     27.1 0.2     29.2 0.5
 15AUG2018     20.9 0.2     25.4 0.4     27.3 0.4     29.5 0.8
 22AUG2018     20.4-0.2     25.1 0.1     27.1 0.3     29.0 0.4
 29AUG2018     20.3-0.3     24.9-0.1     27.0 0.2     29.1 0.4
 05SEP2018     20.1-0.4     25.0 0.1     27.0 0.3     29.1 0.5

Here is a look at what the European Sept update has - favors a weak El Nino. My estimates are in yellow. I physically aligned Sept 2017 and Sept 2018 for comparison - the Euro did a pretty decent job last Sept for the Oct-Mar period.

[griteater]

This is the best the subsurface has looked in a while in terms of the expanse of the subsurface warm anomalies associated with the downwelling kelvin wave.  Assuming westerly wind anomalies remain present, this may be the ticket to sneak into a weak El Nino for winter.

 

[raindancewx]

For the four Nino regions in August 2018, actual SSTs since 1950 were closest to 1992...the year of Andrew and various other notable hurricanes globally. This is the best blend I could get for Nino 4, Nino 3.4, Nino 3, Nino 1.2 -

Aug	4	3.4	3	1.2
1992	28.93	26.91	25.03	20.87
1994	29.50	27.38	24.86	19.98
1994	29.50	27.38	24.86	19.98
2006	29.21	27.16	25.51	21.71
2017	28.86	26.69	24.87	20.68
2017	28.86	26.69	24.87	20.68
Mean	29.14	27.04	25.00	20.65
2018	29.23	26.94	25.06	20.69

Of the 10-closest DJF objective SST matches to 2017-18 in the 1950-2016 era in Nino 1.2, Nino 3, Nino 3.4, and Nino 4, five became El Ninos the following year, and 2005 which turned into another El Nino was 11th, off by 0.01 from the top ten.

DJF      1.20       3.00     3.4         4         ABS
2017    23.31    24.66    25.72    27.92    0.01
1967    22.87    24.36    25.77    27.91    0.80
1984    23.64    24.62    25.55    27.59    0.87
1954    23.34    24.73    25.56    27.27    0.91
1995    23.85    24.94    25.74    27.85    0.91
1974    23.23    24.96    25.93    27.56    0.95
1962    23.57    24.91    25.89    27.56    1.04
1956    23.52    25.05    26.10    27.77    1.13
1966    23.75    24.99    26.01    27.74    1.23
1971    24.19    24.85    25.76    27.79    1.24
1964    23.71    24.76    25.69    27.20    1.25
2005    24.13    24.97    25.80    27.87    1.26

Still cautiously optimistic about my tentative blend of 1934, 1976, 1986, 1994, 1994, and 2006 which produces a +0.2 anomaly in Nino 1.2 (maybe less), +0.4 in Nino 3, +0.7 in 3.4 and +0.7 in Nino 4. Assumption is Nino 1.2 is still around 0 into Nov, before slowly warming. Those years had a much colder Fall here, and we're running 5.5F colder for Sept 1-10.

A blend of 1962-63, 1964-65, 1971-72, 2005-06 does look like last year to some extent, just 3F colder. The following winters (1963, 1965, 1972, 2006) look like a somewhat colder version of what I'm expecting. 

[griteater]

The MEI update from 9/7 is locked in on neutral...

"With the MEI showing ENSO-neutral conditions, four key anomalies in the MEI component fields flag La Niña, compared to only one for El Niño. Key anomalies refer to values in excess of one standard deviation, or one sigma in support of either ENSO phase.  Significant positive anomalies (coinciding with high negative loadings) denote high sea level pressure (P) anomalies over the eastern equatorial Pacific, southerly wind anomalies (V) to the north of the Equator and south of Hawai'i, and unusually warm temperatures (S and A) northeast of Australia. All of these anomalies are indicators of La Niña.  On the other hand, westerly wind anomalies (U) along and north of the Equator from the Maritime Continent to the dateline flag emerging El Niño conditions."

"Compared to last month, the updated (July-August) MEI remained flat at +0.13, ending up right in the middle of ENSO-neutral rankings. This means that not a single season has reached El Niño conditions in 2018. Looking at the nearest 12 rankings (+6/-6) in this season, and excluding all cases that departed by more than 0.4 standard deviations in the changes from the previous month as well as three months earlier (April-May), there are eight analogues to the situation this season: 1953,'59,'69,'80,'81,'90,'00, and '03. Six of these cases remained ENSO-neutral, while only one ('69) briefly reached El Niño conditions, and one slipped back into La Niña'00). This confirms last month's assessment that El Niño remains "very unlikely" in 2018."

"Compared to last month, the odds for El Niño in 2018 remain very low, potentially joining the previous aborted events of 2017, 2014, and 2012 (except that those actually achieved a few months of El Niño conditions compared to none in 2018)."

https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/enso/mei/

 

[Maestrobjwa]

1 hour ago, griteater said:

The MEI update from 9/7 is locked in on neutral...

"With the MEI showing ENSO-neutral conditions, four key anomalies in the MEI component fields flag La Niña, compared to only one for El Niño. Key anomalies refer to values in excess of one standard deviation, or one sigma in support of either ENSO phase.  Significant positive anomalies (coinciding with high negative loadings) denote high sea level pressure (P) anomalies over the eastern equatorial Pacific, southerly wind anomalies (V) to the north of the Equator and south of Hawai'i, and unusually warm temperatures (S and A) northeast of Australia. All of these anomalies are indicators of La Niña.  On the other hand, westerly wind anomalies (U) along and north of the Equator from the Maritime Continent to the dateline flag emerging El Niño conditions."

"Compared to last month, the updated (July-August) MEI remained flat at +0.13, ending up right in the middle of ENSO-neutral rankings. This means that not a single season has reached El Niño conditions in 2018. Looking at the nearest 12 rankings (+6/-6) in this season, and excluding all cases that departed by more than 0.4 standard deviations in the changes from the previous month as well as three months earlier (April-May), there are eight analogues to the situation this season: 1953,'59,'69,'80,'81,'90,'00, and '03. Six of these cases remained ENSO-neutral, while only one ('69) briefly reached El Niño conditions, and one slipped back into La Niña'00). This confirms last month's assessment that El Niño remains "very unlikely" in 2018."

"Compared to last month, the odds for El Niño in 2018 remain very low, potentially joining the previous aborted events of 2017, 2014, and 2012 (except that those actually achieved a few months of El Niño conditions compared to none in 2018)."

https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/enso/mei/

 

Blech...(for those in the mid-Atlantic, that is!) Expectations lowered...but I wonder if this is a transitional year, and we get an El Niño next year? (Has it worked like that before?)

[raindancewx]

The MEI to me is a lagging indicator for ENSO. It definitely has its uses, but it always seems like the most canonical El Nino or La Nina conditions show up after an MEI peaks in warm/cold territory. The SOI on the other hand seems to work as a leading indicator. The PDO is also interfering with the development of the event I'd say. I think of the ENSO/PDO relationship like a dog owner and a dog. ENSO is the human. Nino 1.2 is like the indicator for where the dog/PDO is going. But the dog is on a leash and can yank hard enough to prevent the human from walking forward at times. The MEI/SOI also seem to work better when Nino 1.2 is the same sign as Nino 3.4, which isn't the case now, with Nino 1.2 cold.

The SOI right now is around -12 for September. If it finishes under -3 for the month, 24/31 of the following winters were El Ninos for 1931-2017 - so that is the one I'm watching. Look at the years with an SOI of -6 or less in September - pretty safe at this point.

Year	Sept SOI
1982	-20.0
1940	-18.8
2015	-16.6
1991	-16.2
1994	-16.2
1972	-14.1
1997	-14.1
1965	-13.5
1946	-13.3
1953	-13.0
1976	-12.4
1951	-11.2
1987	-10.6
1969	-10.0
1957	-9.4
1939	-8.8
1977	-8.8
1932	-8.3
1941	-7.7
1990	-7.3
2002	-7.3
1948	-7.1
1993	-7.0
2014	-6.6

[uncle W]

sometimes the mei lags or is a head of the game...in the 1960's we had a few weak la nina mei years with a neutral oni...

1961-62 and 1962-63 had a DJF oni of -0.2 and -0.4...mei was near moderate la nina territory both years...1992-93 had a DJF oni of +0.1...mei was in el nino territory...the JMA has its own enso measuring technique...I  look at all three when analyzing enso.

ftp://www.coaps.fsu.edu/pub/JMA_SST_Index/jmasst1868-today.filter-5

[Cerakoter1984]

I'm staying with warm-neutral "head fake".

[40/70 Benchmark]

On September 11, 2018 at 10:56 PM, griteater said:

The MEI update from 9/7 is locked in on neutral...

"With the MEI showing ENSO-neutral conditions, four key anomalies in the MEI component fields flag La Niña, compared to only one for El Niño. Key anomalies refer to values in excess of one standard deviation, or one sigma in support of either ENSO phase.  Significant positive anomalies (coinciding with high negative loadings) denote high sea level pressure (P) anomalies over the eastern equatorial Pacific, southerly wind anomalies (V) to the north of the Equator and south of Hawai'i, and unusually warm temperatures (S and A) northeast of Australia. All of these anomalies are indicators of La Niña.  On the other hand, westerly wind anomalies (U) along and north of the Equator from the Maritime Continent to the dateline flag emerging El Niño conditions."

"Compared to last month, the updated (July-August) MEI remained flat at +0.13, ending up right in the middle of ENSO-neutral rankings. This means that not a single season has reached El Niño conditions in 2018. Looking at the nearest 12 rankings (+6/-6) in this season, and excluding all cases that departed by more than 0.4 standard deviations in the changes from the previous month as well as three months earlier (April-May), there are eight analogues to the situation this season: 1953,'59,'69,'80,'81,'90,'00, and '03. Six of these cases remained ENSO-neutral, while only one ('69) briefly reached El Niño conditions, and one slipped back into La Niña'00). This confirms last month's assessment that El Niño remains "very unlikely" in 2018."

"Compared to last month, the odds for El Niño in 2018 remain very low, potentially joining the previous aborted events of 2017, 2014, and 2012 (except that those actually achieved a few months of El Niño conditions compared to none in 2018)."

https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/enso/mei/

 

I'll take that bet-

[raindancewx]

The latest JAMSTEC has trended warmer for both US winter and El Nino strength - with an El Nino peaking late winter, not fall or December/Jan.

Precipitation pattern is kind of weird.

Cold Greenland...no blocking (no -NAO)?

Stronger later - El Nino from Sept - Aug 2019 on this depiction.

Similar Modoki pattern with all Nino zones warming from before.

Overall, nice to the models sticking with an El Nino. I don't think the NE will be particularly cold personally, despite a Modoki-ish setup. I think Nino 1.2 is going to warm a lot late, and the NAO and blocking will be transient - so I don't this run is completely out to lunch.

[griteater]

^ That's interesting...that's the first model I've seen increase the SSTs.

[frd]

12 hours ago, raindancewx said:

The latest JAMSTEC has trended warmer for both US winter and El Nino strength - with an El Nino peaking late winter, not fall or December/Jan.

Precipitation pattern is kind of weird.

Cold Greenland...no blocking (no -NAO)?

Stronger later - El Nino from Sept - Aug 2019 on this depiction.

Similar Modoki pattern with all Nino zones warming from before.

Overall, nice to the models sticking with an El Nino. I don't think the NE will be particularly cold personally, despite a Modoki-ish setup. I think Nino 1.2 is going to warm a lot late, and the NAO and blocking will be transient - so I don't this run is completely out to lunch.

So you are saying a warm, non eventful winter? 

Wonder why some seasonal models were depicting blocking on latest runs  ? 

 

 

 

 

[raindancewx]

The subsurface warmth may finally be coming up in earnest now -

Nino 1.2 is rising quickly on Tropical Tidbits -

The last bit of cool in Nino 3/Nino 1.2 is moving into Nino 3.4, but it seems like it will be attacked from below the surface, the north, east and west. The areas south of the Nino zones are still cool-ish. I don't think that is going anywhere. For people thinking Modoki = Cold East, the anti-warm blob look is showing up in the NE Pacific now. The cold ring v. warm ring off NW Canada is kind of Neutralish for the PDO. The warm tongue inside the ring...is more akin to a cold PDO. Atlantic cold ring remains intact too. The warm PDO should have a warm ring along NW North America, with a cold tongue. The waters off the West look a bit like 2006 if anything, rather than 2002 or 2014.

 

[jaxjagman]

1+2 is by a KW though isn't it?It could if not fall back down in a couple days?

 

[griteater]

3 hours ago, raindancewx said:

For people thinking Modoki = Cold East, the anti-warm blob look is showing up in the NE Pacific now. The cold ring v. warm ring off NW Canada is kind of Neutralish for the PDO. The warm tongue inside the ring...is more akin to a cold PDO. Atlantic cold ring remains intact too. The warm PDO should have a warm ring along NW North America, with a cold tongue. The waters off the West look a bit like 2006 if anything, rather than 2002 or 2014.

Well sea surface temperatures aren't the only thing that dictate a winter forecast, but that's for another day.

[raindancewx]

Most similar SOI monthly readings for July-Sept since 1931 look like 1957 and 1986 to me - we'll have to see how Sept finishes. The SOI should drop negative again, hard, fairly soon in two-four days if we believe the European showing unusual high pressure over Darwin v. low pressure by Tahiti.

Sept 1-15 is around -7.4. A lot of the top SOI analogs for July-Sept 2017 did pretty well for DJF US high temperature departures, 1981-82 and 1995-96 were pretty strong.

[raindancewx]

One of the things I've been looking at since last winter is what happens after the exceptionally crappy winters in the Southwest? We don't get huge precipitation in the winter here, but even so, it is pretty rare for highs to be very warm (+3F or more in DJF against the 1931-32 to 2017-18 base), while precipitation is 50% or more below average (1.30" against DJF 1931-32 to 2017-18). There are only eight winters since 1931-32 that meet the "+3F, -50% precip" or warmer/drier threshold - 1933, 1995, 1998, 1999, 2005, 2008, 2013, 2017. 

Using slightly less strict criteria (+2F, -23%) produces similar results.

[40/70 Benchmark]

On 9/14/2018 at 7:24 PM, raindancewx said:

The subsurface warmth may finally be coming up in earnest now -

Nino 1.2 is rising quickly on Tropical Tidbits -

The last bit of cool in Nino 3/Nino 1.2 is moving into Nino 3.4, but it seems like it will be attacked from below the surface, the north, east and west. The areas south of the Nino zones are still cool-ish. I don't think that is going anywhere. For people thinking Modoki = Cold East, the anti-warm blob look is showing up in the NE Pacific now. The cold ring v. warm ring off NW Canada is kind of Neutralish for the PDO. The warm tongue inside the ring...is more akin to a cold PDO. Atlantic cold ring remains intact too. The warm PDO should have a warm ring along NW North America, with a cold tongue. The waters off the West look a bit like 2006 if anything, rather than 2002 or 2014.

 

There are no absolutes in seasonal forecasting, but modoki winters are harsher in the east on average....unequivocally.

But I agree that it is prudent to search for avenues for deviation from the expected.

[40/70 Benchmark]

On 9/14/2018 at 10:09 PM, jaxjagman said:

1+2 is by a KW though isn't it?It could if not fall back down in a couple days?

 

I was just about to post that region 1.2 is very malleable and prone to large fluctuations over relatively short intervals of time.

I wouldn't read too much into it yet.