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Rjay

March 20th-22nd Suppressed, Fish, Not Coming Threat

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This is very close to a mecs for NYC

Surface isn't the problem but the 850s are for a short period of time. Is the Nam overdoing it ? Possible but this looks like a classic north east snowstorm.

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Just now, Franklin0529 said:

Probably mostly white rain an sleet down this way.  Got about a total of 3" past 3 storms.  Any promise to this one? 

Way colder

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2 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

Those weenie maps are overdone, even for the interior, even with the insane amount of precip. 2” of liquid won’t yield anyone 20” of snow on the ground. Maybe 7:1 or 8:1, and it’s going to have some issues sticking to pavement even at 30 degrees.

No concern in the higher terrain with sticking or temps.

0 z nam smokes my area.

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1 minute ago, Snow88 said:

This is very close to a mecs for NYC

Surface isn't the problem but the 850s are for a short period of time. Is the Nam overdoing it ? Possible but this looks like a classic north east snowstorm.

I’m going with 4-8” in NYC, and it wouldn’t shock me if Central Park recorded less.

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1 minute ago, Snow88 said:

This is very close to a mecs for NYC

Surface isn't the problem but the 850s are for a short period of time. Is the Nam overdoing it ? Possible but this looks like a classic north east snowstorm.

remember feb 2013...that little warm layer....effed us

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1 minute ago, Animal said:

No concern in the higher terrain with sticking or temps.

0 z nam smokes my area.

Only concern is that 10:1 is too high.

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5 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

Those weenie maps are overdone, even for the interior, even with the insane amount of precip. 2” of liquid won’t yield anyone 20” of snow on the ground. Maybe 7:1 or 8:1, and it’s going to have some issues sticking to pavement even at 30 degrees.

whats your reasoning on interior, ill take my area for example...16F tonight, high of 33 tomorrow, then 26 tomorrow night, then just up to freezing WED, then snow falls at 28F.....with 850s at -5+... i dont think the grounds gonna have a cooling issue

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1 minute ago, NJwx85 said:

I’m going with 4-8” in NYC, and it wouldn’t shock me if Central Park recorded less.

I agree on that and it wouldn't shock me to see the city get more.

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1 minute ago, NJwx85 said:

I’m going with 4-8” in NYC, and it wouldn’t shock me if Central Park recorded less.

I agree. Maybe more 3-6. Could easily be 2" or 8" but climo says <6"

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2 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

I would still watch tomorrow afternoon.  The 3K wants to get stuff in still.  The HRRR is useless at this range but it does as well 

Yeah I think it’s one of those where we helucinate all afternoon that the radar is better than it actually is. Those sim radars are always more bullish than reality, but the accumulated precipitation panels are promising.

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5 minutes ago, Animal said:

No concern in the higher terrain with sticking or temps.

0 z nam smokes my area.

This has to be an all time March for your area.

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Just now, NewYorkweatherfan said:

The ground has been cold...dont forget it's been unusually cold I don't think we'll have problems sticking even in Manhattan if temps are below 32 like man says.

Lol, Manhattan has trouble in January. 

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1 minute ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said:

whats your reasoning on interior, ill take my area for example...16F tonight, high of 33 tomorrow, then 26 tomorrow night, then just up to freezing WED, then snow falls at 28F.....with 850s at -5+... i dont think the grounds gonna have a cooling issue

You have to remember that your backyard is different than most, however you still won’t accumulate like you would have a month ago.

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Just now, NJwx85 said:

You have to remember that your backyard is different than most, however you still won’t accumulate like you would have a month ago.

i understand that, but you specifically said interior...the interior with those soundings is not gonna be 7:1..... i just snowed at 34 degrees and marginal 850 and accumulated 19" no problem

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It’s the coldest storm of the last 4, that’s why I’m going bullish with 4-8” in NYC. I can also see how the best banding stays over the interior and the city gets stuck in subsidence 

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