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MAG5035

Central PA - March 2018

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45 minutes ago, bubbler86 said:

I am popping in and out watching you guys have fun...between the ssl handshake errors and site offline notices.  Hope to be back up there this summer though been house hunting for two months and the market is as dry as I have ever seen it.  

There he is his my friend! March snowstorm for you. Miss you guy. The old Marcus days! I am hoping to bring it home tomorrow for CPA. Get back here, 

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8 minutes ago, MAG5035 said:

Awesome imagery of this storm taking shape. Click on it and you'll see the GIF in motion.

CODNEXLAB-GOES16-continental-conus-14-03_32Z-20180321_map-14-1n-10-100.thumb.gif.ac270e4fed6837fa7db87b98102b5ade.gif

 

Shouldn’t this be tagged NSFW? Lol :lol:

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The GFS looks to be on crack with it's qpf for our region.  5.9" total for MDT for the whole event (round 2)??  The HRRR already says the GFS is wrong as it has close to 8" at 4:00pm tomorrow afternoon with many more hours to go still after that.  Tomorrow afternoon really looks to be rockin over our region.

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3 minutes ago, CarlislePaWx said:

The GFS looks to be on crack with it's qpf for our region.  5.9" total for MDT for the whole event (round 2)??  The HRRR already says the GFS is wrong as it has close to 8" at 4:00pm tomorrow afternoon with many more hours to go still after that.  Tomorrow afternoon really looks to be rockin over our region.

That is the same story for the GFS Radar and nowcasting time.

 

3 minutes ago, 717WeatherLover said:

Don't look over at the Mid Atlantic.  They are jumping off the cliff over the most recent models.

Nice. 

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15 minutes ago, CarlislePaWx said:

The GFS looks to be on crack with it's qpf for our region.  5.9" total for MDT for the whole event (round 2)??  The HRRR already says the GFS is wrong as it has close to 8" at 4:00pm tomorrow afternoon with many more hours to go still after that.  Tomorrow afternoon really looks to be rockin over our region.

crack....please don't use a global when forecasting 24 hours out. Deform band is for real. 

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I just did my meltdown of the 4" of snowfall from Tuesday and got a very surprising ratio.  The snow melted down to only 0.22" of liquid which produces an SLR of 18 : 1 !!!

Please, Cashtown or Maytown  or anyone else who measures SLR's that had 3" of snow or more, let me know what your SLR was so I can see if I'm in the ballpark with it being so high.  I know it's not absurdly high, but I was expecting at best 10 :1.

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12 minutes ago, paweather said:

crack....please don't use a global when forecasting 24 hours out. Deform band is for real. 

That's my point.  The GFS obviously has some issues with the super-short lead time of this 0Z run.  I'm easily favoring at least a blend of the 2 NAMs plus the HRRR's as we move through tomorrow.

Also, just got off the phone with one of my wx friends from Bergen county in NE NJ.  He said NYC's Channel 7 (ABC) met is calling for 10 - 14" for all of NYC and northeastern NJ tomorrow into Thursday.  NYC schools have closed for tomorrow, which is a very rare event.  Some areas of north jersey that got 20" of snow 2 weeks ago are bracing for possibly another 12 to 18" with tomorrow's storm.  That would give those areas the snowiest March on record, with records going back to the 1870's.  Unreal.

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I was afraid we bust...still afraid that we might. But I'm having a better feeling now that some of the best snow might be over south central PA and the mason dixon line. That gradient is super tight to the north, thats for sure. It kinda reminds me of the Jan 2016 blizzard because of that.

Here around Harrisburg it was a none event yesterday compared to York. Got maybe 3 inches of snow at most. Here's hoping later today it makes up for it.

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Heading off to bed now as round 2 is getting underway here, almost exactly 12 hours after round one began, with some large flakes swirling around in the wind again.  See you all in the morning.  Pleasant dreams.

PS>>Dusting again on the board with a temp of 30.9 and rising at the moment.  Not worried, it'll head back down soon enough.

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Well precip sputtered for awhile but finally got the steady snow restarted around these parts. Time to close this thing out and beat the "biggest" snow I've had this winter (all the way back in mid December). 

2 hours ago, CarlislePaWx said:

I just did my meltdown of the 4" of snowfall from Tuesday and got a very surprising ratio.  The snow melted down to only 0.22" of liquid which produces an SLR of 18 : 1 !!!

Please, Cashtown or Maytown  or anyone else who measures SLR's that had 3" of snow or more, let me know what your SLR was so I can see if I'm in the ballpark with it being so high.  I know it's not absurdly high, but I was expecting at best 10 :1.

That's a pretty impressive ratio, I can't say I'm surprised we had better than expected ratios though. It actually wouldn't be a stretch to say this snowfall is one of the fluffiest of the winter for me. I don't have anything really accurate to do a meltdown but I can vouch my almost 3.5" of snow earlier was quite fluffy...and likely >10:1. Lot's of healthy sized fluffy flakes and aggregates, and really didn't see that typical fine moderate to heavy snow you see in the middle of these classic northeast snowstorms. I think round 2 is going to have more of the latter as the coastal takes over. 

I think the initial wave had decent lift in the mid levels (700mb) that promoted good snow growth in that part of the column and the initial dry air and cooling of the column allowed the fluffy snow all the way to the ground. Since it's been pretty chilly for this time of year and we had cold air in place and ready to go for the event.. it readily accumulated on non-paved surfaces where there was good rates. 

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round 2 started  here almost two hours ago as a little snow and sleet mix for about 10 minutes but the radar didn't show it . Slow but steady snow here now . I was not expecting a big cyclonic looking inland storm. Is this how the models showed it. I hope thing are still looking good for most of us.  

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