TalcottWx Posted March 2, 2018 Share Posted March 2, 2018 Absolute crushjob for elevations including ORH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted March 2, 2018 Share Posted March 2, 2018 very impressive storm, observations back through ontario and WNY suggest that this will be a performer, and not a dud. good luck all! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted March 2, 2018 Share Posted March 2, 2018 0C 850 crashes between 18z and 21z, and 925 between 21z and 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 2, 2018 Share Posted March 2, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 2, 2018 Share Posted March 2, 2018 #keephopealive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted March 2, 2018 Share Posted March 2, 2018 I hate to ask this, but is the Euro the outlier now? Or has it resumed its king status? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 2, 2018 Share Posted March 2, 2018 3 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said: I hate to ask this, but is the Euro the outlier now? Or has it resumed its king status? I think its playing catchup to the reality of a firehose displaced to the north....I think it makes it a hair farther up than even this depiction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ajisai Posted March 2, 2018 Share Posted March 2, 2018 Shhhiiiitte nice one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted March 2, 2018 Share Posted March 2, 2018 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I think its playing catchup to the reality of a firehose displaced to the north....I think it makes it a hair farther up than even this depiction. The earlier crashing of heights for the win. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizz Posted March 2, 2018 Share Posted March 2, 2018 5 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said: I hate to ask this, but is the Euro the outlier now? Or has it resumed its king status? EuroWX map shows similar story as 12z, fyi. Need to dig into the details more... clown maps go wonky sometimes. I would lean towards a colder solution however with rates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted March 2, 2018 Share Posted March 2, 2018 On mobile now so cumbersome but seems to me 2 initial differences vs 12z:- secondary develops slightly more north- southern shortwave is much strongerThese are things we should be nowcasting/verifying as we go.Later in the storm by 18z-0z Fri, there's a bigger slug of vorticity circulating north of the ULLPretty sizable shift in output by Euro standards right before go-timeAs posted earlier tonight, these subtle changes in how vort lobes are handled will have huge impacts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ajisai Posted March 2, 2018 Share Posted March 2, 2018 How does Boston look on euro? Slushy late? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted March 2, 2018 Share Posted March 2, 2018 1 minute ago, ajisai said: How does Boston look on euro? Slushy late? To me that's like 4-8" of pounding wet snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted March 2, 2018 Share Posted March 2, 2018 2 minutes ago, Blizz said: EuroWX map shows similar story as 12z, fyi. Need to dig into the details more... clown maps go wonky sometimes. I would lean towards a colder solution however with rates. As I noted above, the 850 and 925 0C lines crash sooner than the 12z depiction. It isn't just the clown maps. No other model shows heights crashing this soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ice1972 Posted March 2, 2018 Share Posted March 2, 2018 14 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: That’s so great dude....congrats Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted March 2, 2018 Share Posted March 2, 2018 That euros is the exact scenario I've been harping on for the last day or two since things trended warmer. It's simply too dynamic to not flip to heavy stuff at the end. I wasn't sure it would give a band like that. But the euro delivers. That's a hell of a model to have on your side too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 2, 2018 Share Posted March 2, 2018 The modeling may have been a disappointment with this system, but I bet that we will remember the reality for a long time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 2, 2018 Share Posted March 2, 2018 1 minute ago, ice1972 said: That’s so great dude....congrats Eh...lets verify it haha We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted March 2, 2018 Share Posted March 2, 2018 Ray just showed off his forecast skill. That's what we call meteorology and not modelogy. He took the climatology and setup and knew that it would deliver. Now it's gonna pay off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted March 2, 2018 Share Posted March 2, 2018 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: The modeling may have been a disappointment with this system, but I bet that we will remember the reality for a long time. Honestly, I don't mind this uncertainty. We've been blessed with such massive storms in the past few years, or so it seems. I like the bit of surprise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted March 2, 2018 Share Posted March 2, 2018 If that verifies, Jim Corren will be shoveling and apologizing tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 2, 2018 Share Posted March 2, 2018 23 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said: Looks like more than a few inches. 3-6 here Nice run for everyone in SNE Nam ftw ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ajisai Posted March 2, 2018 Share Posted March 2, 2018 To me that's like 4-8" of pounding wet snowThanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted March 2, 2018 Share Posted March 2, 2018 How does Boston look on euro? Slushy late? For Boston metro I'd say 4-8" heavy wet snow... but higher amounts, contingent on slightly faster cooling and more prolonged firehose, are very possible.HRRR trends tonight seem to support cooler thermals, but we'll watch upstream obs thru the morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted March 2, 2018 Share Posted March 2, 2018 Wind criteria? Check 3 hours of 1/4mile vis? Are we sure nowhere in SNE meets those criteria? Looks to me ORH has a shot in 18z-0z timeframe on that Euro run There was not enough support to consider before that Euro run, but let's see how things trend overnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Johnno Posted March 2, 2018 Share Posted March 2, 2018 Man just to my west is going to get it good, whole route 8 area, the southbury weather center would approve for sure, Danbury delight there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ice1972 Posted March 2, 2018 Share Posted March 2, 2018 We’re planning snowboarding at Mohawk up in Northwest CT....all systems go it looks like Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Johnno Posted March 2, 2018 Share Posted March 2, 2018 2 minutes ago, ice1972 said: We’re planning snowboarding at Mohawk up in Northwest CT....all systems go it looks like Yea I would think Goshen and Cornwall area will do well, Probably Goshen or Norfolk jack for CT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ice1972 Posted March 2, 2018 Share Posted March 2, 2018 6 minutes ago, Johnno said: Yea I would think Goshen and Cornwall area will do well, Probably Goshen or Norfolk jack for CT Ya....could be an epic day Sunday.....kiddos coming around nicely on the boards....it’s not Tahoe but it’s fine to learn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted March 2, 2018 Share Posted March 2, 2018 Insomnia after the night shift and no model runs. Bad combo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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