Syrmax Posted February 25, 2018 Share Posted February 25, 2018 4 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: They're is always more to the picture than teleconnections. But a +PNA 90% of the time will deliver below average temps to the NE, same with Negative EPO. You play the percentages. There is no positive PNA in the 15 day forecast, so that is why temps will average normal/above average. https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/forecasts/reforecast2/teleconn/forecast.html Agree...short term they can be useful...out a couple weeks. Beyond that...Not so much. I do think PNA/RNA and NAO state are the most useful ones for our wx. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 25, 2018 Author Share Posted February 25, 2018 Just now, Syrmax said: Agree...short term they can be useful...out a couple weeks. Beyond that...Not so much. I do think PNA/RNA and NAO state are the most useful ones for our wx. I feel like the Pacific matters the most. That is how we get our cold air. Cold air over our lakes almost always guarantees above average snows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 25, 2018 Share Posted February 25, 2018 5 hours ago, Ottawa Blizzard said: Was it really that bad for you this year? It wasn't great up here, but December and early January delivered. It wasn't horrendous but perhaps a bit underperforming. Freak (and I) missed a lot of Lake Effect this season with a lot of close calls...So it was frustrating. KSYR average is around 120" / season...I'll likely end up within 10% of that barring something unusual happening...So net/net...about average here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 25, 2018 Share Posted February 25, 2018 4 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: I feel like the Pacific matters the most. That is how we get our cold air. Cold air over our lakes almost always guarantees above average snows. Probably but I don't pay close attention to EPO. Depends on whether it's east or west based etc. It's all inter-related so it is hard to say what the most important factor is and what is driving the ship. Throw in the MJO and my eyes roll up into my head. Almost zero usefulness by itself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 25, 2018 Author Share Posted February 25, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 25, 2018 Share Posted February 25, 2018 52 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: I could easily see something like this playing out. Elevation etc. precip rates could outdo the marginal levels. The 700 map I pulled looks a lot different than the sounding Syrmax posted for Syracuse. The numbers are off? The map shows well below 0 while the sounding is slightly above. Weird. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 25, 2018 Share Posted February 25, 2018 18z Gfs p-type map showing a rain-snow scenario, clown map showing near double digits in parts of the Mohawk valley so not all elevation dependent.. We need that primary to die off quicker and the 2ndry to ride pretty far inland to get something decent.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 25, 2018 Share Posted February 25, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 25, 2018 Share Posted February 25, 2018 Here’s the 12z euro for kbuf, look at the warmth ahead and during the system, that’s what an initial primary out of the SW will do to you..We seem to be worrying about aloft and not the surface lol 850s can be -3c with surface in the mid 40’s, so yeah lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 25, 2018 Share Posted February 25, 2018 16 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: For comparison 12z Gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted February 26, 2018 Share Posted February 26, 2018 Im expecting Zilch as thats quite common around these parts. Warm air punches right through into CNY so I expect NOTHING, especially considering its a SWFE that turns Coastal so we're toast here in CNY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 26, 2018 Share Posted February 26, 2018 Primary may get to Detroit when all said and done haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 26, 2018 Share Posted February 26, 2018 Yeah this storm that's a week out...looks like a strong lakes cutter that pops a secondary somewhere along the coast as downstream gets blocky. These are the scenarios where surprises happen, someone gets screwed big-time usually. And some win unexpectedly. Very hard to figure out a couple days ahead, much less a week away. Something to monitor though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 26, 2018 Share Posted February 26, 2018 It’s not really a cutter (as I think of them). It’s traversing the country, W-E. A cutter is a storm that starts in the south and instead of moving into the NE, cuts NW into the lakes. This one will be suppressed S due to a HP over Canada. Semantics. I get your points. If the primary tacks into Detroit we are screwed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 26, 2018 Share Posted February 26, 2018 0z suite is pretty warm. They are flip flopping around. Trending warmer if anything. Also, trending stronger. It will be fun to watch. I wonder if euro will hold onto cooler solution? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 26, 2018 Share Posted February 26, 2018 7 hours ago, rochesterdave said: 0z suite is pretty warm. They are flip flopping around. Trending warmer if anything. Also, trending stronger. It will be fun to watch. I wonder if euro will hold onto cooler solution? Euro will eventually figure out that it's wrong (again) and correct itself warmer. Unimpressed with its performance this season although I understand it's verification at h500 is probably better than other NWP. But we don't experience weather at h5 either. Spring is getting ready to spring this work week. Wall to wall 50s, other than 40s when it rains. Sure looks like an early end to winter has happened. Viva la SSW!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 26, 2018 Share Posted February 26, 2018 Euro blows haha Less then 1/4” precipitation here with temps in the lower 40s , clown maps show 1”-2” for kbuf-kroc on 1/2” liquid but with temps in the mid 30’s, white rain at best..Has another marginal event a couple days later.. Lets also not forget what kind of airmass this storm is coming into lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted February 26, 2018 Share Posted February 26, 2018 06Z is straight ugly as we cant even get cold enough with a monsterous Greenland Block and a tanking -NAO, RLMAO! Pacific says no to EC cold, lol! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted February 26, 2018 Share Posted February 26, 2018 1 hour ago, CNY-WXFREAK said: 06Z is straight ugly as we cant even get cold enough with a monsterous Greenland Block and a tanking -NAO, RLMAO! Pacific says no to EC cold, lol! PAC is king. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 26, 2018 Share Posted February 26, 2018 Looks like the ‘winters over’ crowd might be right on this one. I swear, it’s no fun being wrong ALL the time. Lol. I don’t understand how this set up doesn’t produce. Ugh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted February 26, 2018 Share Posted February 26, 2018 Looks like we need to go to Rome, Italy to see snow! They just had their first snowfall in 6 years. Edit: Note the chains on the front wheels of the police car for about 2 inches of snow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 26, 2018 Share Posted February 26, 2018 Just gonna put this here.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cny rider Posted February 26, 2018 Share Posted February 26, 2018 Time to stick a fork in it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 26, 2018 Share Posted February 26, 2018 1 hour ago, cny rider said: Time to stick a fork in it. Yeah. CNY might be tough. But way too much energy to ignore, esp western and anywhere with elevation. GFS and Canadian want to paste the ski country region near Buf with a sharp cutoff over Roc. This (moving) area of accumulation is associated with the transferring primary so dynamic cooling might be hard as it’s better during strengthening. Im still betting on some of us seeing a decent, wet snowfall. 6”+? Sure wish I had access to the euro. I’ll spend thousands on stupid stuff but then hesitate on ponying up for a 20 dollar subscription. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 26, 2018 Author Share Posted February 26, 2018 Lake Erie will be ice free by this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 26, 2018 Author Share Posted February 26, 2018 March LES event? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 26, 2018 Author Share Posted February 26, 2018 Elevation based snowstorm on all guidance for wny Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cny rider Posted February 26, 2018 Share Posted February 26, 2018 2 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said: Lake Erie will be ice free by this weekend. As it will be until next December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 26, 2018 Share Posted February 26, 2018 1 hour ago, BuffaloWeather said: Elevation based snowstorm on all guidance for wny Friday. This thing has had the look of an elevation based snowstorm for a few days, in various mutations of model output. Gotta think thats probably what materializes although exactly who gets what will be tricky. My hunch is WNY hills and then over east towards the Catskills or maybe ADKs closer to the secondary. Here at basically sea level we may scratch out a slushy inch or two. #sad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 26, 2018 Author Share Posted February 26, 2018 25 minutes ago, Syrmax said: This thing has had the look of an elevation based snowstorm for a few days, in various mutations of model output. Gotta think thats probably what materializes although exactly who gets what will be tricky. My hunch is WNY hills and then over east towards the Catskills or maybe ADKs closer to the secondary. Here at basically sea level we may scratch out a slushy inch or two. #sad What about the Tolland Hills? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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