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John1122

Feb 1st-2nd 2018 Potential Snow Event.

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The models have been extremely consistent with this and have taken it from 240-252 hours out to now 126 hours out until the Western forum begins feeling the effects.  Tonight's model suite features heavy snow for a large portion of the forum on all models. 

The GFS brings this per the 1-28 00Z. The GFS has been consistent with heavier snow north of 40 on nearly every run for 5 days in a row. Quite a few of these runs sees a nice bit of accumulation well south of 40 as well. 

sn10_acc.us_ov.png

 

The Canadian was late to the party and is still waffling around. It painted the entire region almost with heavy snow during it's 1-27 runs. Today it moved the snow axis very far north at 12z, the 00z quickly brought it back, this time west of the Plateau and north of 40.

snku_acc.us_ov.png

 

The Euro has been pretty consistent with this as well. It actually moved towards the GFS a few days ago and for the most part has held to it's solution for several days as well. Tonight's 00z run was it's most robust into Tennessee in several runs.

 

euro128.jpg

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I'm really curious about this statement by MRX.

Quote
Still the models are tweaking the timing/strength of
this system, but the ECMWF has been the most consistent. The GFS is
starting to come into alignment with the ECMWF and showing some more
snow in the higher elevations of the forecast area. Amounts are real
difficult to pin down at this time as a lot will depend on the exact
temperatures before/during/after the front moves through

The GFS has been rock steady with this for almost a week and the Euro came to it. Do they pay attention over there?

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The Euro followed the GFS again. Insignificant system outside of the mountains and SWVA. Still a few days to look obviously, but it looks like terrible luck again may be in the offing for snow lovers in the eastern valley. Not sure how something can be so consistently modeled for almost a week and then just go poof. It's enough to make me consider giving up weather watching for a while.

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1 hour ago, John1122 said:

The Euro followed the GFS again. Insignificant system outside of the mountains and SWVA. Still a few days to look obviously, but it looks like terrible luck again may be in the offing for snow lovers in the eastern valley. Not sure how something can be so consistently modeled for almost a week and then just go poof. It's enough to make me consider giving up weather watching for a while.

It's enough to make me consider building a snow making machine.

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18 minutes ago, *Flash* said:

Yeah...let's hold off on storm threat threads prior to 2/6 (or until the cold locks itself into place). As Carver mentioned...the pattern should be favorable for fun & games as we get further into the month. For now, GFS seems she's back to her Lucy ways again. 

For eternal optimists, you'd want to lean on the fact the GFS is notorious for losing systems in that D3-6 range; however, for realists like me...and the majority of this forum...Euro agreement can be a kiss of death. We shall see. If you wanna not feel down today, think long term over short term. 

The Euro has been bad this winter as well.

But this warranted a thread. It has been the most consistently modeled storm threat of the entire winter season. This morning when I started this thread every global model showed a significant winter event for the region, some for the 6th consecutive day. It is less than 5 days out from the forum region and there's another potential threat a few days later. This thread allows for separation of systems. 

Whether it comes to pass or not is another matter. It's not a matter of cold though,  the last run of the GFS and Euro sheared the system out and cut off all the available moisture. 

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Yeah...the thread is a good call.  Not sure I would stick a fork in it yet either.  The wx models are bouncing all over the place....and I forget my big rule every single winter season.  When there is VERY cold air in NA(or getting ready to be here), the models really struggle.  I mean...I was ready to throw in the towel on February after calling for cold during that time frame for much of January.  Now that look is back on the GFS and EPS.  But the models went through the same progression as December...had it, lost it, had it.  I think Jeff had some good words a few days back...all of that cold in Siberia has changed the NH 500 pattern.  It may be that is about to sort itself out.  Anyway, without blocking in the Atlantic there is nothing to slow down these systems and make them an easy call.  Timing is very difficult which makes a forecast like hitting a moving target.  Some winters, 5-7 day forecasts (w blocking in the Atlantic) are reasonably good.   But this EPO/PNA ridge pattern is making things tough in the short, medium, and long range...man, it is tough, tough, tough.  I enjoy it though, but these patterns are just difficult.  So, good call on the thread.  

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At the rate this thing is going today, it may not even rain. I don't know how much money they spend upgrading models over the last few years, but they haven't gotten better. 5 years ago if the GFS, Euro and Canadian agreed on a storm inside of 5 days, you could go buy a sled. Now they can agree in that time frame and a day or two later there's not even a storm on the map.

Winter may return, not going to trust any model, period, any longer though. I'll see it falling from the sky and believe it then. Until then the largest by far 2 winter snow drought of the past 80 years at minimum, continues unabated on the Northern Plateau,

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Well the Euro is back on board for the Eastern areas. 2-3 inches in the Knoxville area . 3-4 on the Plateau and Northeast areas. 4-5 SWVA. 2-4 in SEKy. Mountain areas get 6-8 inches. 

I'll believe it when I see it though. 

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33 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

Am I just not seeing the MRX morning disco?

Quote
696
FXUS64 KMRX 290751
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
251 AM EST Mon Jan 29 2018

.SHORT TERM (Today through Tuesday)...
Today, a mid to upper level trough axis will be crossing the area,
with dry air advection eroding morning clouds and leaving mostly
to partly sunny skies. A secondary 500 mb vort max on the back
side of the trough along with a cold front will move into the area
late in the day. This will bring a surge of cold air and moisture
to northern parts of the area beginning around 00Z. Will continue
to have likely PoPs after that time. A 20-25 kts upslope 850 mb
flow will enhance QPF in the higher elevations of SW VA and East
TN, with snow accumulations still expected to be in the 1-3 inch
range across the mountains. Lower elevations of SW VA and NE TN are
expected to have less than one inch. The Winter Weather Advisory
will continue unchanged. Light snow showers or flurries may
continue into Tuesday morning, mainly in the mountains. Decreasing
moisture depth should end accumulating snow by midday. Highs will
be much colder Tuesday, with highs in the 30s to lower 40s south.

.LONG TERM (Tuesday night through Sunday)...
Dry atmosphere will be over us as the ridge to our south
continues to move to the west. Warmest days of the forecast will
be on Wednesday and Thursday with highs near, or just above normal
for this time of year. Front is still forecasted to move in from
the northwest and sweep through Thursday through Friday. Forecast
models are keeping the coldest and wettest air to our northeast
along with the higher snowfall amounts. In our area the moisture
is much more limited and temperatures are currently not forecasted
to drop well below freezing until the precipitation moves out.
This is adding up to be a bit of a tricky forecast, but right now
the most likely scenario is snowfall in the higher terrain and
some making it into the northern Valley of Northeast Tennessee and
Southwest Virginia. Slightly better chances for widespread
snowfall happens with a secondary front expected to move through
towards the end of the weekend...But models tend to overdo
snowfall amounts this far out, so am not quite ready believe the
model output at this time.

 

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Must be a hard job in the in the Valley where we are in a battle zone in the winter time to please the public as much as the weather changes each run to run on the models,especially making a long range forecast.

 

National Weather Service Nashville TN
542 AM CST Mon Jan 29 2018

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Surprise, surprise...the long term models have sped up the
Thursday/Friday system and changed the game yet again! More on
that below after talking about the short term through Wednesday.

Models are still indicating potential for rain and snow mainly for
the northern Plateau this afternoon and evening thanks to a potent
Midwest trough digging further south with each model run. A cold
front will move through the area as well, which will make Tuesday
a bit cooler than we have been seeing over the last week or so.
Some light accumulation is possible on the northern Plateau, but
this wave is also increasing in speed so the chances for
accumulation will be short lived this evening just before
midnight. Some flurries may continue just after midnight, but
current model consensus has dry conditions returning to the
Plateau before sunrise.

Tuesday and Wednesday look to be dry as a brief upper ridge moves
in. Temps will be cooler on Tuesday but will recover quickly on
Wednesday with the return of southerly flow at the surface. Winds
of 10 to 15 mph and gusting to around 20 mph will help increase
high temps to the mid 50s Wednesday afternoon. This may decrease
min RH values in the afternoon to 20 to 30 percent, which would
raise fire weather concerns.

Now, for the Thursday/Friday upper trough, the GFS has sped up the
system quite a bit while the ECMWF has increased speed just a
little. Rain may begin in the northwest zones Thursday morning,
and spread across the area during the late morning and afternoon.
The cold front will start working its way through the mid state
during the afternoon and evening, which will start the decline of
temperatures across the area. Both models now have the main part
of the upper trough north of the area, which only allows for
precip chances to impact the mid state through midnight or early
morning hours Friday. The ECMWF with its slightly slower speed has
longer chances of QPF over the area and comes to an end before
sunrise. If this trend continues, it would get the highest precip
chances out of the area before the surface is cold enough to see
snow for most of the area. Since models continue to change their
tune with this event, did not back off too much from mixed
precipitation, and kept the rain/snow mention for the northern 2/3
of the mid state late Thursday night into early Friday morning.
Models could flip back on the next few runs to a colder solution
just as easily as keeping this faster/warmer trend going, so not
going to rule out frozen precip chances just yet.

The remainder of Friday and Saturday look dry before another
trough looks to bring more chances for precip Sunday and possibly
into Monday. Long term models remain quite different for this
event not only on timing of the wave but also duration of precip
chances as well as temperatures in the low levels. For now, kept
consensus trends going which has rain chances during the day
Sunday, and slight chances for mixed precipitation Sunday night
into early Monday morning. Uncertainty is obviously high with a
very large model spread, so will need to see what the next runs
show to try and get a better idea for next weekend`s potential.

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4 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

The 12z GFS and CMC now depict a system following right on the heels of the Thursday/Friday system.  That has my interest, especially since MRX mentioned it. 

Agree that one is more interesting, although if the CMC is marginal on temps, leaves me a bit skeptical, considering its usual bias of being cold.

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1 hour ago, ShawnEastTN said:

Agree that one is more interesting, although if the CMC is marginal on temps, leaves me a bit skeptical, considering its usual bias of being cold.

....and then its usual bias of being wrong.  :lol:

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Sref Means for the event while still ongoing but beginning to get into the first event for Thursday.

TYS: .5" - Big Dog at 3.9"

TRI: 1.09" - Big Dog at 4.10"

BNA: .27" - Big Dog at 2.07

CHA: .16" - Big Dog at 3.06"

CSV: .37" - Big Dog at 3.94"

LOZ (London/Corbin KY): .51" - Big Dog at 4.37"

 

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1 hour ago, uncheelfan said:

What is the time frame we are looking at for this storm.

Sent from my SCH-I535PP using Tapatalk
 

Welcome to the Forum!  Time frame really depends on model but generally Thursday night/Friday morning for winter precip, rain ahead of that generally.

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