Jump to content
  • Welcome to American Weather

    Register now to gain access to all of our features. Once registered and logged in, you will be able to contribute to this site by submitting your own content or replying to existing content. You'll be able to customize your profile, receive reputation points as a reward for submitting content, while also communicating with other members via your own private inbox, plus much more! This message will be removed once you have signed in.

Sign in to follow this  
Ralph Wiggum

January 16-18 Threat

Recommended Posts

EPO ridge, -NAO, WAR, developing -AO. Vigorous energy lobe/trof at H5 being forced South into OV. All models have it. How far does it dig? Does the look hold? Will it just be a clipper type event or does it deepen enough South of us to be something more? The questions remain unanswered. Stay tuned....pictures at 11!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Ok, it's not 11, but here are some pictures. Im feeling this one is going to produce here. Will be a question of how much......minor or significant.

CMC isnt digging nearly as far S as other guidance. cd49b8c07c11a0a2e4c924852654a349.jpgaad0c4424f104a68f8dc5095adb28bf3.jpg9056ec5e070b60cded9cfefc60c09d8f.jpgac11e36981a3faef04058d6de063d21f.jpg

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

EPS and GEFS both close off at 500mb but are muted and not digging the ULL nearly as far South. Those means both look like coastal redevelopers that give us *something* with the best action being NE of our region on the GEFS but better on the EPS. Oddly, the GEPS says it's op counterpart is an outlier and is farther S with digging energy BUT never closes off an ULL not does it appear to go neg tilt. Surface reflection and precip maps on GEPS is a moderate hit signal via more of an inverted trough that extends well offshore and back thru central PA.

 

 

 

 

 

43427a902de5e674999d1ce713e5af80.jpg6c597c4dd7d8e4132d492f594a9675cf.jpg2e587be489e21401750ba8c684f121f0.jpg

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Imo this is one that has more room to dig farther S than the usual N or NW trend right now. That WAR means business as does the building -NAO which looks to bridge with the EPO ridge. Could be a case of all the right blocking at the right time. James Brown said it best...."I Feel Good".

 

3a51a9a0af69b62609f148aaed050447.gif

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
12z EURO giving some of us some hope...
eu2.jpg.7083358f6d35e677c3be5020405519c1.jpg
GEFS show improvements at H5 but still dry-ish at the surface. GEPS improved as well.....still not as diggy as I would like overall but the look on guidance will work for us as a thump at the very least if things panned out verbatim right now. GEPS also nearly doubled mean 24 hr precip for the potential event to around .3-.5" qpf across SE PA. Awaiting EPS.....

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

18z GEFS have more members farther S and W along the coast. Also bumped mean 24-hr qpf to .4" ish.

That's good to hear...that's .5+ total w/the over performer added on.

*Off topic but a bad acciden/fire at Norristown Rd/County line.  Firetrucks, ambulances and police galore. Pretty much in front of Rosemore shopping center...I got detoured all over the place.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

No snow for awhile would be nice. Just had a foot surgery and can't even go out to enjoy the warm temps lol. Going to the surgery center at 5 AM after the ice storm was tough btw. No salt in the neighborhood, was all ice

Sent from my Pixel XL using Tapatalk

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, hurricane1091 said:

No snow for awhile would be nice. Just had a foot surgery and can't even go out to enjoy the warm temps lol. Going to the surgery center at 5 AM after the ice storm was tough btw. No salt in the neighborhood, was all ice

Sent from my Pixel XL using Tapatalk
 

Glad you made it okay, but wait a minute! If you're laid up, think of all fun to be had with unlimited tracking, watching it snow, etc! And if you really need to go out in it, just walk in deep snow, assuming you have crutches, right? We'll try to help you with your morale!

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Glad you made it okay, but wait a minute! If you're laid up, think of all fun to be had with unlimited tracking, watching it snow, etc! And if you really need to go out in it, just walk in deep snow, assuming you have crutches, right? We'll try to help you with your morale!
Lol I've gotta head back to the doctor a couple times, it could get tough convincing someone to drive me during snow lol

Sent from my Pixel XL using Tapatalk

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Guidance stepped away from the ULL idea digging into the OV from 24 hours ago BUT this period still bears watching and has decent potential. Looks like the trof isnt going to be as diggy but sharper as a clipper-type system swings thru on the 16th. Hate relying on an inverted trof for snow but we could see some light snows as a possibility from this feature. Models and ens are *trying* to develop something weaker off the middle coast behind the passage of the energy to our North. The Euro op looks to be the most aggressive and gives us accumulating snows Wednesday into Thursday. Ens are starting to pick up on this wave as well. Should be interesting to see how this unfolds. Plenty of energy coming thru with a decently amplified pattern and some transient ridging showing up in all the right teleconnection zones (PNA, NAO, AO, WAR). This period looks ripe for *something*, probably nothing huge, but models are having a challenge deciding what to do with the energy and waves along or off the coast.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

GFS and Euro respectively with the sharper the 500mb trof and subsequent wave of lp off the middle coast. Note the GFS is note positive tilt and displaced SE with the wave (top) while the Euro is more neutral looking and much nearer the coastline (bottom).3a2b320b3a1e6cfeececdae0aa73f5c3.jpg0da92ab88951792cd94fc3a9197aa310.jpg

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

GEPS took a step towards this idea as well. You can see some members now showing lp at 0Z where 12Z had none. Also an area of weak uncertainty has shown up in that region now.

Again, the period (16th-18th) bears watching as there is room for improvement and the atmosphere wants to try and yield some light snow at the very least.5f832a1722de336f80f95886e83c1964.gif

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Agreed this period should be watched. Key time frame is toward Tuesday AM finishing up by evening. Models hinting at redevelopment Miller B type.....always bears watching especially for areas N and E of here. I can see clipper type snows accumulating (2" to 3") across much of the area and then the potential for more significant snows if the redevelopment occurs faster and further south. Higher snow amounts for North Jersey and of course New England. Also keep an eye for ZR a little quicker than modeled for NW Chester County and Northern Bucks and Montgomery counties for tomorrow morning. I would not be surprised to see WWA brought down into these zones later today by the NWS. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Agreed this period should be watched. Key time frame is toward Tuesday AM finishing up by evening. Models hinting at redevelopment Miller B type.....always bears watching especially for areas N and E of here. I can see clipper type snows accumulating (2" to 3") across much of the area and then the potential for more significant snows if the redevelopment occurs faster and further south. Higher snow amounts for North Jersey and of course New England. Also keep an eye for ZR a little quicker than modeled for NW Chester County and Northern Bucks and Montgomery counties for tomorrow morning. I would not be surprised to see WWA brought down into these zones later today by the NWS. 

Looking at guidance recently we have taken several steps back from the Tuesday clipper snows with the Miller B big ull dropping down idea going by the wayside. Looks more like if we can get that energy to swing thru and keep baroclinic zone relatively close to the mid atl coast we could get a wave to develop Wed late maybe giving some light stuff to the area. This has been the trend this year with the progressive ns.....models show deep digging energy 120hrs+ lead time then realize that the progressive flow wont allow for it and instead we get clippers to swing thru to our N (a couple have been South) then developing a wave on the trailing front. I dont see why this wont be any different now. Still could get some inverted trof flakes Tues but starting to lean towards Wed-Thurs as having the better potential. Reminds me of Dec 9 with similar setup and watched the wave off the coast and mean trof axis shift West as lead time lessened.

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Just to note, with the WAR setting up and seeing some ridging in the N Atl I dont see why the Wed-Thurs wave wont continue to move nearer the coast. I guess what Im saying is there is more room for this to develop and move closer imo. We'll see if guidance throws any wrenches into the progs.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

6Z NAVGEM made me do a double-take......the model with the most progressive known bias is the farthest W with mean trof axis and lp wave it appears. Will be interesting to see if other guidance follows (much like Dec 9 event where NAVGEM led the way at this range).

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Euro now has the Wed/Thurs system next week and is a decent hit. Looks like 4-6" SE PA. Getting in-line with the slower evolution of the trof axis and trailing wave pinching off developing a coastal lp. Still has some flakes with the fropa Tues as well fwiw. This period (16th-18th) definitely looks promising right now. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
And like that, there were none...

Sent from my LG-H871 using Tapatalk


All guidance has increased snowfall for Tuesday with the fropa/inverted trof. General c-3" now. They have backed off the Thursday event. This period is a balancing act.....if we see snow Tues we *probably* miss out late Wed/Thurs. And vice-versa. Or we could get dusted by both. I don't read DT so I have no clue what his thoughts were. Regardless, the potential during this period hasn't changed. Im just glad you aren't asking me to change the dates again. ;-)
  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

All guidance has increased snowfall for Tuesday with the fropa/inverted trof. General c-3" now. They have backed off the Thursday event. This period is a balancing act.....if we see snow Tues we *probably* miss out late Wed/Thurs. And vice-versa. Or we could get dusted by both. I don't read DT so I have no clue what his thoughts were. Regardless, the potential during this period hasn't changed. Im just glad you aren't asking me to change the dates again. ;-)
Yeah yeah lol. I refuse to look at dt either. He sickens me

Sent from my LG-H871 using Tapatalk

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Was busy painting all day and just now read the six pages in the mid Atlantic forum      .  I thought it was a good sign they filled 6 pages since this morning. Evidently not. Those poor guys are really getting jaded. Let's hope the interior scores soon. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
Sign in to follow this  

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

×