sauss06 Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 1 hour ago, pasnownut said: It wouldnt surprise me one bit.... here ya go nut. December 24, 2015 about 5 pm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 That is an awesome photo! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 11 minutes ago, sauss06 said: here ya go nut. December 24, 2015 about 5 pm You forgot to cross legs...poser. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 i had a prop..............frosty 12oz Miller High Life. The Champagne of beers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 Horst going 2"-4" with the highest totals in the Solanco hills. He is really banging the 70 degree drum for next Tuesday and Wednesday. (York hit 70 yesterday) I personally think we'll get into the 72-74 degree range. Great pic Jon! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowalot Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 I cranked ac in my car yesterday. Yeah I hate mugginess, heat, hot, etc. Hopefully after next week we return to winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 19 minutes ago, sauss06 said: i had a prop..............frosty 12oz Miller High Life. The Champagne of beers LMAO. a very nice one as well. You should be a proud pappa! BWT, i have like 4 miller high life tshirts...and 2 say just that. The champagne of beers. Its been my beer for 10 yrs. Thats just too funny. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 13 minutes ago, snowalot said: I cranked ac in my car yesterday. Yeah I hate mugginess, heat, hot, etc. Hopefully after next week we return to winter. I was tempted, but I just couldnt bring myself to letting the warm win. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 FWIW the CMC and ICON have joined the party for 12z. GFS still out to lunch. I'd say enough of a consensus that barring any craziness, were going to pull of a Saturday night special for central/eastern locals. Beer pics coming tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 Horst going 2"-4" with the highest totals in the Solanco hills. He is really banging the 70 degree drum for next Tuesday and Wednesday. (York hit 70 yesterday) I personally think we'll get into the 72-74 degree range. Great pic Jon! I love the volatility of weather patterns. Warm then a few inches of snow then warm again.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 22 minutes ago, snowalot said: I cranked ac in my car yesterday. Yeah I hate mugginess, heat, hot, etc. Hopefully after next week we return to winter. I've had the AC in the car on since the beginning of February. As much as I despise heat i actually hate car heat even more. Ever since I was a kid I've gotten sick with car heat blowing on me. When it is truly cold in the car I run the heat on defrost so that the warm air isn't blowing on me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 FWIW the CMC and ICON have joined the party for 12z. GFS still out to lunch. I'd say enough of a consensus that barring any craziness, were going to pull of a Saturday night special for central/eastern locals. Beer pics coming tomorrow I’ll have my Troegs Troegenator, or Victory Golden Monkey going.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 1 minute ago, Superstorm said: I love the volatility of weather patterns. Warm then a few inches of snow then warm again. . Yep, and that volatility can lead to some big March storms. Here's hoping.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 3 minutes ago, Superstorm said: I’ll have my Troegs Troegenator, or Victory Golden Monkey going. . I have some good stuff for special events. MHL is my go to "keep girlish figure" go to beer (y'all can giggle at will with that one). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 4 minutes ago, maytownpawx said: Yep, and that volatility can lead to some big March storms. Here's hoping.. i wanna drive that tractor in superstorms pic in that much snow.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 As mentioned above, CTP is not impressed as of yet. Maybe at the 3 p.m. crew comes in they'll adjust things because the discussion mentions possiblity of 2-4. Saturday SATURDAY Snow likely, mainly after 4pm. Increasing clouds, with a high near 39. Calm wind becoming southeast around 6 mph in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New snow accumulation of less than one inch possible. Saturday Night SATURDAY NIGHT Snow before 1am, then a slight chance of snow showers between 1am and 4am. Low around 29. South wind around 5 mph becoming calm in the evening. Chance of precipitation is 80%. Sunday SUNDAY Sunny, with a high near 46. Calm wind becoming west around 6 mph in the afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 52 minutes ago, maytownpawx said: Horst going 2"-4" with the highest totals in the Solanco hills. He is really banging the 70 degree drum for next Tuesday and Wednesday. (York hit 70 yesterday) I personally think we'll get into the 72-74 degree range. Great pic Jon! 2-4" is ok, we can nickel and dime our way to seasonal Its looking like it next week. The thing i always get concerned with when the temps spike in the late winter is what it does to the plants. My wife said yesterday our one lilac has buds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 Just now, sauss06 said: 2-4" is ok, we can nickel and dime our way to seasonal Its looking like it next week. The thing i always get concerned with when the temps spike in the late winter is what it does to the plants. My wife said yesterday our one lilac has buds. Horst now saying 1"-4", sighting warm ground temperatures limiting accumulations... We went through that last year with some of our plants. One of the casualties of early warm-ups. I'm checking our lilacs when I get home today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 24 minutes ago, maytownpawx said: I've had the AC in the car on since the beginning of February. As much as I despise heat i actually hate car heat even more. Ever since I was a kid I've gotten sick with car heat blowing on me. When it is truly cold in the car I run the heat on defrost so that the warm air isn't blowing on me. The windows in my Tahoe are down almost all the time. Unless Mrs. Sauss is along. My daughter is same way, and we give her hell all the time as she opens her bedroom windows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 Lancaster will fair much better than the last 2 events where I scratched out an 1” from each event.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 5 hours ago, maytownpawx said: Hmm, in either 2015 or 2016 it was super warm on Christmas Eve. It felt very strange going to bed that night with the air running. My wife was like "do we really need the air running on Christmas Eve" and I'm saying does it really matter what the date is if it's a sauna in the house? At any rate, it's a beautifully damp fall morning outside. Here's hoping for good model runs at 12z today... Damp? I have a river running through my yard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 1 hour ago, maytownpawx said: Horst now saying 1"-4", sighting warm ground temperatures limiting accumulations... We went through that last year with some of our plants. One of the casualties of early warm-ups. I'm checking our lilacs when I get home today. NWS State College also stating that air and ground temps at start of precip may limit accumulations but I am not so sure that will be much of an issue given the vertical temperature profile throughout this event. Maybe it will be true at first closer to Lancaster and to the south and east but I have seen far too often here around Harrisburg that once we get that southeasterly wind tomorrow it becomes overcast pretty quickly and temperatures fail to reach forecast highs. With dew point temperatures falling tonight with high pressure building I want to see how overnight lows dip tonight and what happens with the current saturated soil. This could play a big role in if ground temperatures do limit accumulations or not. I have never tracked it for verification, especially after recent soaking rainfall, but the models all seem to have soil temperatures below 32F across nearly the whole state by tomorrow morning. Also, worth noting that precipitable water values for tomorrow are projected to be nearly 2 standard deviations above normal for February which is great to have when looking at a snow event! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 Euro looks solid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 19 minutes ago, Superstorm said: Euro looks solid . Its a big sub forum....So were all good? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 My temp has been holding pretty steady since this morning, not much drop at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 18 minutes ago, sauss06 said: My temp has been holding pretty steady since this morning, not much drop at all. Mine went up from 52 to 58 but has backed off since the rain picked up to 55. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 23 minutes ago, 2001kx said: Its a big sub forum....So were all good? That's a fair point. It looks much better south and east of you. From what i can tell you pick up 1"-2". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 13 minutes ago, maytownpawx said: That's a fair point. It looks much better south and east of you. From what i can tell you pick up 1"-2". Better than nothing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 Man, southeast PA got smoked by the 18z NAM. Some 7"-8" amounts showing up near Philly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted February 16, 2018 Author Share Posted February 16, 2018 Euro wasn't too bad for most of the subforum, 2 or so up through wsptwx and 2001kx and generally 3-4" for the LSV (10:1 map). Kuchera and Cobb maps were fairly close to the 10-1 output in our region. 15z SREFs were very robust on QPF and snowfall in the region. Even Willamsport had almost a 5 inch snowfall mean. They're probably a bit too amped up, but the vast majority of SREF members were showing decent numbers to make up that mean (not a few large outliers skewing the mean). The NAM's newfound stinginess on QPF distribution across the subforum today is probably a bit much, I kinda like the Euro's look. Edit: 3k NAM at 18z looks a little more back in line with things. We're probably looking at a general 1-3" for most of central PA and the chance for a zone of 3-5" in the southern tier Sus Valley where the best moisture influx and forcing seems to be being progged. Given the moisture source region this system could certainly end up wetter or a bit further north still as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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