CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 Thats 32 degrees above our daily average high, lol! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 It did seem fast like a frontal passage Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 New RGEM, still a solid warning event but definitely not the stupid totals from some of the clown maps I've seen, its obviously picking up on LE big time across metro KROC on a NNE flow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 This is using Kuchera and still going.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 11, 2018 Author Share Posted January 11, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 12/1 starts in the dark red, for the 2nd half of the event.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 20 minutes ago, CNY-WXFREAK said: Current conditions at Fulton, Oswego County Airport (KFZY) Lat: 43.35°NLon: 76.39°WElev: 476ft. Overcast 62°F 17°C Humidity 37% Wind Speed Vrbl 6 mph Barometer 30.15 in (1020.9 mb) Dewpoint 35°F (2°C) Visibility 10.00 mi Last update 11 Jan 9:54 am EST This is a mini torch for sure! Fulton is turning into the tropical spot of CNY. I don’t know if its because of my proximity to a frozen Oneida Lake but I’m currently at 41. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coh Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 25 minutes ago, CNY-WXFREAK said: Todays 12Z suite should nail this track and whatnot as we're within 24 hrs of this event, but then again, who knows. There's one more wave that comes ashore before 00z tonight (over Washington/Oregon). While it won't figure directly in what happens here, it does accelerate southeastward and closes the gap between it and "our" wave. So it could be acting as a bit of a kicker. If it's faster or slower (or significantly stronger/weaker) than modeled it could have some impacts on what happens downstream (over us). I won't pretend to have any idea what that impact will be, just don't be surprised if there's another adjustment tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 11, 2018 Author Share Posted January 11, 2018 54 at Buffalo already. 63 at Fulton! We've had snow on the ground since the first week of Dec, might not survive this thaw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 Not sure but that Fulton reading of 62 looks false Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNash Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 3 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: 54 at Buffalo already. 63 at Fulton! We've had snow on the ground since the first week of Dec, might not survive this thaw. We lost most of our snowcover overnight. Lots of mud, not a lot of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 Gfs back to a big hit for rochester Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 11, 2018 Author Share Posted January 11, 2018 GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 11, 2018 Author Share Posted January 11, 2018 3 minutes ago, WNash said: We lost most of our snowcover overnight. Lots of mud, not a lot of snow. Yeah just a few inches left here. Still quite a bit in Colden Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 Let me go outside and give u guys a “real feel” lol Don’t have my station up anymore.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 11, 2018 Author Share Posted January 11, 2018 1 minute ago, wolfie09 said: Let me go outside and give u guys a “real feel” lol Don’t have my station up anymore.. Tropical, wish I was there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phillifan22 Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 2 minutes ago, tim123 said: Not sure but that Fulton reading of 62 looks false Agreed. Looking at other nearby ASOS stations, NYSMesonet sites, and even the crappy WunderMap, I am HIGHLY skeptical of the KFZY ASOS Temp. It's had some whacky readings the past 12 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 11, 2018 Author Share Posted January 11, 2018 Just now, Phillifan22 said: Agreed. Looking at other nearby ASOS stations, NYSMesonet sites, and even the crappy WunderMap, I am HIGHLY skeptical of the KFZY ASOS Temp. It's had some whacky readings the past 12 hours. 70 Degs? That thing is broken. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coh Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 12z op GFS is pretty sweet. Probably about the best outcome at this point - keeps the ice well to the SE and delivers a solid foot or so (+/- due to lake enhancement). It would be nice if that track locks in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 11, 2018 Author Share Posted January 11, 2018 First map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 Global warming. Lmao Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 11, 2018 Author Share Posted January 11, 2018 Might have some flooding issues with the rain and snowmelt in some areas. This will result in anomalous rainfall across the region. The question of where the heaviest rainfall axis will be. The model agreement is that heaviest axis will be across Central NY/Upstate NY. Rainfall amounts will range from around a half inch across Western NY up to 1.5 inches across eastern Lake Ontario. Southerly winds will also lead to an upslope component across the Tug Hill Plateau will higher amounts are possible. Due to the extreme PWATS, higher rainfall amounts can not be ruled out. Temperatures will remain steady tonight, upper 40s/low 50s. The warm temperatures and rainfall will result in the potential for flooding across Western NY and the North Country. Snowmelt and run- off will lead to rises on creeks and streams. See the Hydrology section below. Some classic south buffalo ice jams? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 Don' think it' track now. Think it's speed and lift and moisture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 That’s what I tried to tell you guys last night - the observations look fishy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 Yea it’s a bit chilly, no way low 60s, maybe low 50s..We have melted pretty good today especially in my backyard.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 Gfs with ratios gives roc 2 feet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 About the only places from I-90 and south where the snowpack will survive this are hilly areas, and Mt. Tolland in CT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 5 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: First map For once I actually believe KBUF to take might be too low...guidance seems to be shifting west again and on a north to ne wind areas in Niagara and Erie County get good lake enhancement as well. By the time we get closer to the event the totals will go up a few inches through the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 5 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Yea it’s a bit chilly, no way low 60s, maybe low 50s..We have melted pretty good today especially in my backyard.. I still have a decent snow pack around my house. It should start melting faster as I’m up to 44 with a dew point of 37. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 Still trying to hold on in my front yard lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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