25thamendmentfan Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Snow lovers in Harwich, ma won't be very happy if this new nam represents a trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 The SREFs were basically unchanged. I’m gonna take that run with a grain of salt for now. The RGEM has been more consistent than the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 2 minutes ago, dryslot said: That’s a general 14-20” for all that stay snow back to the MA border. Lol Hard toss unless rgem/gfs come in amped Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Probably going to go down as one of the all-time horrible nam runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheCloser24 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Wow! 6z NAM has a widespread 1 to 2 ft of snow across New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncforecaster89 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 2 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said: Only model that came out in the 6Z suite so far also...thinking its probably overdone but good to see it going this way and not the other tbh. Completely agree. But, given I'm likely heading to Scituate in hopes of blizzard conditions on the coast, must admit I'm not too fond of the mixing prospect on the south shore with that run. Good news for more W areas, though! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 This may have happened because the surface low has more or less formed now off FL and the NAM may have made an adjustment because of that. It doesn’t mean it’s the right one though. I’m not sure how much help the 06Z RGEM will be as I find the off hour RGEM runs aren’t as good as the off hour GFS/NAM. I’m not sure they get the same data ingested. We’ve come a long way the last 10-15 years on the US models for 06-18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 6 minutes ago, sbos_wx said: Hard toss unless rgem/gfs come in amped That SLP tracked just east of BRB, That goes back to about 4 days or so when some of the models had it hooking there, But the jump to the east, Didn’t happen so this stayed well to the west and that’s what screws some of the SE areas and the coast but also gets snow well back west too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 3 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: This may have happened because the surface low has more or less formed now off FL and the NAM may have made an adjustment because of that. It doesn’t mean it’s the right one though. I’m not sure how much help the 06Z RGEM will be as I find the off hour RGEM runs aren’t as good as the off hour GFS/NAM. I’m not sure they get the same data ingested. We’ve come a long way the last 10-15 years on the US models for 06-18z That was quite a drastic shift west at this lead, Guess we wait for the rest of the 06z models, But that could be to extreme. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 949mb off the Maine coast, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncforecaster89 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 During my own short time (since 3/26/14) tracking NE coastals, it appears that we get these W trends with the NAM & GFS in this time frame on such intense systems. However, they generally verify more E/wd during now-casting. Am I wrong in this recollection? On a personal note, my experience was derived forecasting and tracking SE coastals. It's a different beast forecasting up here! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
25thamendmentfan Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 6 minutes ago, ncforecaster89 said: Completely agree. But, given I'm likely heading to Scituate in hopes of blizzard conditions on the coast, must admit I'm not too fond of the mixing prospect on the south shore with that run. Good news for more W areas, though! If this keeps trending west you won't want to be in scituate and 6 inches of slop. Consider 35 miles farther north along the north shore seawalls in places like marblehead. Show us video of the crashing waves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 3 minutes ago, ncforecaster89 said: During my own short time (since 3/26/14) tracking NE coastals, it appears that we get these W trends with the NAM & GFS in this time frame on such intense systems. However, they generally verify more E/wd during now-casting. Am I wrong in this recollection? On a personal note, my experience was derived forecasting and tracking SE coastals. It's a different beast forecasting up here! Tough to say actually, Don’t think we have seen one this strong for a winter cyclone up here, We are getting inside a 24 hr window, So even if it tics SE in the next 12 hrs that’s a regional bomb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 1 minute ago, ncforecaster89 said: During my own short time (since 3/26/14) tracking NE coastals, it appears that we get these W trends with the NAM & GFS in this time frame on such intense systems. However, they generally verify more E/wd during now-casting. Am I wrong in this recollection? On a personal note, my experience was derived forecasting and tracking SE coastals. It's a different beast forecasting up here! If the trend stops around 18-24 out then yes. We do often see this happen for awhile between 24-48 then it stops. But if you keep seeing ticks one way or the other on guidance at 12-18 hours before the event I find the event often continues to verify real time further west/east as its unfolding. I often will hedge a forecast more west or east than the models if there has been a continued non stop shift inside 24 hours on the track Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 952 mbs about 50 miles east of PWM -- coastal frontogenesis of epic proportions -- sure it's going to rotate 40-45 F air over the Cape and spoil their party but otherwise, 5" an hour potential with thundersnow in that set-up. You have to admit, these 950 type solutions have shown up on just about every model at some point, and when you look at the developing dynamics, why not? It looks like it wants to phase around 37 to 39N to me, and as it tries to do the 1978 superstorm over-rotation it will just run into the CAD that has no time to be removed, there is only one solution, thundersnow. Something like this is going to happen. We won't know exactly what until it happens. I sat through Jan 26 78 in a forecast office and saw the data coming in. Prepare to be riveted. These types of storms have an explosive life cycle, even the strong storms of recent years at least took a reasonable amount of time to develop and deliver. Wham bam thank you NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
25thamendmentfan Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 March 2017 had a relentless west trend that never reversed itself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncforecaster89 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 8 minutes ago, 25thamendmentfan said: If this keeps trending west you won't want to be in scituate and 6 inches of slop. Consider 35 miles farther north along the north shore seawalls in places like marblehead. Show us video of the crashing waves. Thanks for the advice, greatly appreciated! Will definitely adjust my prospective intercept location based on now-casting and radar. If the 06z Nam verifies, I would definitely not be documenting the event in Scituate. Should be asleep, since I have a 17 hour drive from here just to get to the S shore! Lol Didn't mean to go OT with my plans, there, but TY for the post! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 1 minute ago, ncforecaster89 said: Thanks for the advice, greatly appreciated! Will definitely adjust my prospective intercept location based on now-casting and radar. If the 06z Nam verifies, I would definitely not be documenting the event in Scituate. Should be asleep, since I have a 17 hour drive from here just to get to the S shore! Lol Didn't mean to go OT with my plans, there, but TY for the post! Don't amend anything unless a red tag met tells you, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Blizzard warnings posted Essex south shore and cape. Not at BOS though, lol. Be shocked if I don't verify here close to Logan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Oh boy. Just woke up and checked the overnight runs, and I don't usually say this, but bring 'em up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 06z Reggie maybe a tic west of the 0z run as far as I can see, Crosses just SE of the BM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncforecaster89 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Thanks very much, SnowGoose and Dryslot, for your responses. Consider anything below 980 mb to be an intense NE Nor'easter. First NE coastal I tracked, and documented, was the super-intense 955 mb 3/26/14 storm at Chatham. Will be extremely impressed if this system verifies w/ central pressure <955 mb! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
25thamendmentfan Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 6 minutes ago, sbos_wx said: Don't amend anything unless a red tag met tells you, lol. Why the cheap shot? If it's wagons west and it's 33 and a mix of snow and rain in scituate, and I had just driven 17 hours...I'd want a backup. Wouldn't you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 It pisses me off to no end that it's not a blizzard warning. My weenie is angry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 1 minute ago, 25thamendmentfan said: Why the cheap shot? If it's wagons west and it's 33 and a mix of snow and rain in scituate, and I had just driven 17 hours...I'd want a backup. Wouldn't you? We've had days and days of modeling and the nam is alone. A super western outlier. Several Mets In here pointed out they think this snows to the canal. Not a cheap shot. Just the truth Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncforecaster89 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Just now, sbos_wx said: It pisses me off to no end that it's not a blizzard warning. My weenie is angry. If S shore verifies blizzard, highly likely Logan will, also. Always enjoy seeing your vids and pics! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 2 minutes ago, ncforecaster89 said: If S shore verifies blizzard, highly likely Logan will, also. Always enjoy seeing your vids and pics! Thanks man. Yeah it seems like Logan definitely well. Don't get it at all. Even locations inland should do well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 1 hour ago, 25thamendmentfan said: This storm has extremely high bust potential on many fronts, reminding me of the many snow events of the 1980s which most of you are too young to remember. Three in particular come to mind. January 1987. February 1987. February 1989. All three events trended farther east. Lots of busted forecasts. This was back when tv news was king and local tv anchors and mets were huge stars. February 1987 spared most of New England but slammed cape cod with one of its worst blizzards on record. 1989 spared most of the eastern seaboard despite initial, ominous warnings. Huge model failure. I remember all 3 failures vividly, esp the 1/87, I remember my Dad saying sometimes it is too cold to snow....in a way he was right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Blizzard Warnings, Coastal York and Coastal Cumberland counties here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 51 minutes ago, sbos_wx said: There's just no way. Only model showing anything like it She did this with the jan 16 nyc blizzard a few times....she can't help herself, we know better back here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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