John1122 Posted January 26, 2018 Share Posted January 26, 2018 The Canadian isn't too far off from the 00z Euro as far as amounts go but still achieves them a little differently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 26, 2018 Share Posted January 26, 2018 39 minutes ago, nrgjeff said: Either one of us could be right. I do not notice much divergence anyway. Timing is always up in the air. Agree the GEFS is blowing the MJO. In other news the winter of 1996 keeps coming up. Regrettably the goods never made is much south of I-40; so, I am trying to avoid that year. For next week, GFS op is digging/ginning the system way too fast. My guess, 12Z Euro keeps the wave meh for our Region. Carolinas maybe, but the GFS is about as believable as Mueller. Oops! I'm still posting on tilt after a Twilight Zone week, but at least Wichita State is back on track. Assuming you mean the timing of cold? I can definitely see a real scenario where the -EPO overwhelms the NA pattern and things get cold earlier and the duration is longer. The overnight EPS mades some slight corrections eastward w/ the cold pool in Canada which I suspect could deepen and dig further south. Thanks for the insight as well. As for my Vols...they travel to Iowa St over the weekend in one of the SEC vs Big 12 matchups. Tough road trip in the middle of the conference schedule. That win over Purdue is looking better and better. Definite trap game much like this thaw that we are in the middle of at present. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 26, 2018 Share Posted January 26, 2018 The 12z Euro is a slightly enhanced and further south version of the Canadian with it's snow area. 2-4 inches from 2 counties west of Nashville to the Northern Plateau/Western North Valley of East Tn and points north. 1-2 inches along the 81 corridor. South of 40, not much going on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 26, 2018 Share Posted January 26, 2018 I see the remote possibility to complete a snow hail mary overnight (after midnight) Sunday and into Monday for far east TN, northeast TN and SW VA only (including mountains). I only mention it b/c it's so close in time and I have had a general lack of sleep this week, so it's possible I am hallucinating.....lol. Speaking of sleep, I wouldn't sleep on re-development of precip with a trailing piece of energy early Monday morning, until around the lunchtime hour (as shown by the last 2 runs of the UKMET). Timing would be optimal as shown on 12z, with precip re-developing and blossoming during the early morning hours Monday. As shown, it's rain. It's also shown to a lesser extent on the Euro and GEFS. Temps are indicated by modeling to be in the lower to middle 30's at the surface. I can't see much involving the upper levels with the UKMET, but just the development and radar presentation intrigues me and make me feel like temps and upper levels won't be too far off for a possible surprise. The UKMET shows around an inch of QPF in the 12 hours from 1am to 1pm Monday! Now, for the hail mary. ......I am only mentioning it because I have seen marginal situations like this modeled....... and forecast with surface temps projected to rise into the low 40's (which UKMET modeling shows northeast TN getting to by 1pm) never making it to the 40's. Heavy rain to heavy snow possible? Ok, I will put my crack pipe down..............All in all, likely going to be too warm for anything other than rain, but we'd certainly take the rain around here too. We have been so dry, anytime you can get a soaking rain, followed by a secondary burst you take it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted January 26, 2018 Share Posted January 26, 2018 This still feels like a cold chasing the moisture scenario on the GFS but it is a really a consistent solution. It seems like an odd scenario. The 500mb energy is mostly west and northwest or us but the low level cold races to the east and undercuts the moisture. I’m very skeptical of this solution happening. I can see this trend to the northwest as more model runs come in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 26, 2018 Share Posted January 26, 2018 Thought I would place this here.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 26, 2018 Share Posted January 26, 2018 I will also add that the 12z EPS is showing noticeable signs at days 13-15 of dropping the trough southeast into the eastern half of NA. Looks a bit deeper...and that is a good trend for a change....actually the trend began overnight. So, looks like a cold shot from Feb 3-5, then a warm-up and then maybe the motherload mid-month? The battle lines where overrunning would occur would be over the TN Valley forum area. Nice trends. As usual, Jeff is on the money. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 26, 2018 Share Posted January 26, 2018 18z GFS, middle TN paste job incoming at 156 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 26, 2018 Share Posted January 26, 2018 It's insistent. I'm thinking of starting a pool on how long it rides this before it does a 180. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 26, 2018 Share Posted January 26, 2018 Other modeling also seems to be converging on something similar, so there is that. lol we used to have rain to snow systems back in the day. Maybe we reel a lucky chance in for a change? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 27, 2018 Share Posted January 27, 2018 1 hour ago, John1122 said: It's insistent. I'm thinking of starting a pool on how long it rides this before it does a 180. To borrow a line from Jeff...it has the Kingsport snow hole so it must be right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 27, 2018 Share Posted January 27, 2018 16 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: To borrow a line from Jeff...it has the Kingsport snow hole so it must be right. Shows 4" arouud my house,it better be right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted January 27, 2018 Share Posted January 27, 2018 It's insistent. I'm thinking of starting a pool on how long it rides this before it does a 180.5+ inches in Knoxville and 1 inch at my house 15 min away to the north. Book it. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 27, 2018 Share Posted January 27, 2018 1 hour ago, PowellVolz said: 5+ inches in Knoxville and 1 inch at my house 15 min away to the north. Book it. . I remember the last winter time a bowling ball came through the Valley a few years ago,west coast of Cali to the Valley.We ended up with cold rain while i was living in Lawrenceburg.If i went 30 miles North to around Columbia they got 4"+ and Nashville got hammered Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 27, 2018 Share Posted January 27, 2018 1 hour ago, PowellVolz said: 5+ inches in Knoxville and 1 inch at my house 15 min away to the north. Book it. . If you look closely that's 4.5-5 inches over your area. Not 1 inch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 27, 2018 Share Posted January 27, 2018 More of a cold press on the 0z GFS through 138, robust area of rain changing to snow incoming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 27, 2018 Share Posted January 27, 2018 Reintroduced ice back into the mix on that run. Snow wasn't as far south. 4-6 Northern Plateau and points west. A more robust version of the 12z Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 27, 2018 Share Posted January 27, 2018 What's even more humorous the CMC and GFS looking at the 5h is flip flopping look at the 250mb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted January 27, 2018 Share Posted January 27, 2018 0z ICON has a widespread swath of 2+ inches across most of the state. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 27, 2018 Share Posted January 27, 2018 Canadian blasts most areas north of 40. Especially plateau and westward. 2-4 in NE areas. 3-6 westward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 27, 2018 Share Posted January 27, 2018 9 minutes ago, 1234snow said: 0z ICON has a widespread swath of 2+ inches across most of the state. 5h looks similar to the Canadian,just slower Edit:Canadian is slower,just to clarify Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 27, 2018 Share Posted January 27, 2018 We'll see how this plays out as well.There should be a possible Feb storm if the Rossby wave plays out right in the Tn Valley and OV with cold in place just past mid month Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 27, 2018 Share Posted January 27, 2018 Euro shows 2.5 BNA,mainly after 06z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 27, 2018 Share Posted January 27, 2018 I'm up for a bit longer,post your site and i'll show your text if you want Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 27, 2018 Share Posted January 27, 2018 Euro snow maps are razor thin for Tennessee that run but it just buries Kentucky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 27, 2018 Share Posted January 27, 2018 1 minute ago, John1122 said: Euro snow maps are razor thin for Tennessee that run but it just buries Kentucky. You're CSV right?Only see an inch if you are,maybe warm nose? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 27, 2018 Share Posted January 27, 2018 1 minute ago, jaxjagman said: You're CSV right?Only see an inch if you are,maybe warm nose? I just look at my text until the euro loads,comes in clearer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 27, 2018 Share Posted January 27, 2018 The bigger note from the Euro to me was how much more potent it was vs the last 3 runs. It had been that strong but had the heavy snow shield from Indianapolis to Cleveland. Now it's from SE Missouri to West Virginia when it was day 10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 27, 2018 Share Posted January 27, 2018 20 minutes ago, jaxjagman said: You're CSV right?Only see an inch if you are,maybe warm nose? I'm about 70 miles NE of CSV but we usually get similar weather. They tend to get warm nosed more than I do. There just isn't airport reporting near me for text that I know of. The closest airports that have live weather reports are Somerset Kentucky or Middleboro Kentucky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 27, 2018 Share Posted January 27, 2018 There's some snow that the clown maps aren't showing but it's some mixing most definite,you want this to fall at night time THU 18Z 01-FEB 10.4 4.5 134 6942 24004 0.09 FRI 00Z 02-FEB 2.9 2.7 131 7738 00008 0.25 FRI 06Z 02-FEB -0.1 0.0 130 4008 36008 0.34 FRI 12Z 02-FEB -2.7 0.1 129 4073 00007 0.08 FRI 18Z 02-FEB 2.4 0.0 130 3186 01005 0.00 SAT 00Z 03-FEB 0.3 -0.9 130 883 36006 0.00 SAT 06Z 03-FEB -3.2 -1.4 129 0 01005 0.00 SAT 12Z 03-FEB -5.8 -2.2 129 0 03005 0.00 SAT 18Z 03-FEB 4.8 -1.3 130 2938 05005 0.00 SUN 00Z 04-FEB 2.0 0.9 131 7364 06006 0.00 SUN 06Z 04-FEB 0.2 4.1 132 8901 14005 0.00 SUN 12Z 04-FEB 4.0 4.9 133 9446 16008 0.00 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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