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2017-18 LES Season


josh_4184

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2 hours ago, Hoosier said:

I noticed that Lake Michigan water temps are up 1-2 degrees since yesterday, at least closer to shore.  Not much but every little bit helps.  B)

I personally feel that you are in for a big dump. Don't think that band its going progress too quickly. Low inversion heights or not, it's gonna look like winter in your neck of the woods.

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3 hours ago, IWXwx said:

I personally feel that you are in for a big dump. Don't think that band its going progress too quickly. Low inversion heights or not, it's gonna look like winter in your neck of the woods.

Boy I hope so.  It should be fairly slow moving.   I'd lean a bit conservative with amounts though because of the aforementioned inversion height issue.

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14 minutes ago, homedis said:

Getting some decent Lake Effect flurries here!

Nothing here besides some fairly gusty winds (edit:  Gary has been gusting 45+ though it seems they often report high).  Do see some sort of band taking shape offshore from Muskegon.  Man I wish we had better inversion heights.  

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Do wonder about the strength of the boundary layer flow as an inhibiting factor for better/quicker organization. It's tough to say as I can recall other setups with these types of winds that had the effect of pushing the band(s) well inland more so than causing lack of organization.  My guess is that the inversion heights are the much bigger issue.

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1 hour ago, mimillman said:

Looks like ORD should be getting some decent SN- from the lake effect right now. Can anyone around that area or northwestern Cook confirm?

Hi from Rosemont. More mood flakes than anything, not coming down quite hard enough to accumulate anywhere but along curbs and in parking garages. That wind out there sucks.

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25 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said:

Radar looks decent for you at the moment. I think you'll get to 2"+.

Sent from my SM-G935V using Tapatalk
 

Unfortunately I'm not home to experience it at the moment.  Currently a bit west of U.S. 41/Indianapolis Blvd where it's lighter.

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Posted this in the Ohio thread but might as well post it here as well..

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
An intense lake effect snow band developed off Lake Huron across
Lake Erie into Lorain County. Received a couple reports of near
zero visibility in Lorain County. Latest stream line convergence
shows the band will slowly move east and weaken as it loses
fetch length off Lake Huron and drier air pushes east into the
local area. Expecting snow accumulations of up to 2 inches
possible in the band as it moves across an area. Otherwise, snow
associated with the low pressure system is pulling out to the
east fairly quickly bringing an end to the synoptic snow.
Only issues will be the pesky lake effect snow through the rest
of the day. Made major changes to pop to account for intense
snow band. Minor update to temperatures as well.

sn.jpg.8668f05c3878ccabb0692bfc5143324a.jpg

Vid from the band

 

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1 hour ago, IWXwx said:

Lake Michigan is still pretty wide open considering the bitter cold temps as of late.

lkemiice2.png

I'm never really concerned about a freeze on that lake. Sure, substantial ice buildup can occur, but it would take outrageous sustained/deep cold to freeze it.

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5 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

I'm never really concerned about a freeze on that lake. Sure, substantial ice buildup can occur, but it would take outrageous sustained/deep cold to freeze it.

Oh, I know, but I just expected it to have more ice than it does. We have quite a ways to go to reach 2013-14.

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  • 2 weeks later...

Nice little AFD  from APX this morning I wasn't as bullish on the potential LES the next week or so given the ice build up and crappy NNW flow but looks like we will finally see a more NW or WNW sustained flow for a while which should help whiten things up a bit. Even APX understands how vital winter sports are for the LES belts up here. 

 

Quote

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 246 AM EST Mon Jan 29 2018

...Sharply colder with lake effect snow...

Nice setup for lake effect snows as long wave troughing across
the region supplies plenty of cold air from Thursday well into next
week. In addition, a series of moisture laden Alberta Clippers are
shown to move through the flow. Generally speaking
westerly/northwesterly flow favored areas should begin to rebuild a
nice snowpack making a return of outside winter time activities
possible once again. Temperatures should average at least 5 to 10
degrees below climatological norms.

&&

 

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